“The Fly” told you to sell it all, back in early, mid and late December. He (“The Fly”) proclaimed being on the “verge of making (his) best call ever,” via inverse ETF’s. He gave you an inside look of how his time machine worked, which enables him to make all sorts of coin, in various countries, in every single market environment.
Some of you even mocked me when I warned you to “get ready to die.” Hey, but this blog isn’t about pounding my own chest, while hitting you with a shovel. As you know, it’s about helping poor gaytraders make a nickle or two on intra-day swings.
After all, like I said before, having a real time machine is a curse, not a decadency.
Just know, “The Fly” would never laugh at your folly.
Finally, the game plan for tomorrow is simple: don’t get tempted to throw on some longside trades.
If your favorite stock opens down 10%, just know, it can fall another 10% by the close. When markets plunge, there is no bottom. And, with the elimination of the uptick rule, expect short sellers, like me, to start shooting fish in the barrel—taking advantage of downside moves.
NOTE: Here’s a bonus post from August.
You Can’t Make This Shit Up UPDATE: Tim Knight aka “Dope on a Slope,” self proclaimed perma-bear, got caught long nasdaq CALLS, with hardly any downside protection. This is too much. I can’t laugh any harder. No need to be sympathetic; he deserves it—as you know.
Fun Update: India opened for trading, then closed within 10 minutes—due to being limit down 10%. When they reopen, look for the Sensex to be down 15%. That’s 22% in two short sessions. So much for the emerging markets “decoupling” from the U.S.
Asshats.
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check 2nd paragraph, grammar – ‘pounded my own chest’ … I’d suggest ‘pounding my own chest’, at the risk of being too cute
I will never doubt the time machine again!
Fuck you. I had that corrected before you posted.
Just know, I never proof read, until after I publish.
Fly: no doubt (?) we will see some gov. intervention possibly during pre-market or during the day. We may even see gov. action more than once tomorrow, to prop-up the markets. My question is, however, about small traders like me who want to jump-in. Lets assume the gov. does nothing and I expect the market to gap down. Ok, I enter an order for a reverse etf 1 second after the market opens. In the past, I noticed, that my actions 1 second or even 5 minutes after the open often result in my order getting filled 20 minutes later. Naturally, a lot can happen in 20 minutes. Question is, do traders like you experience similar “timing” problems or do you get what you want, when you put your order in?
No need to Fuck Me. Just trying to show my respect & bow down to greatness, for your stellar time machinated money call of a lifetime.
Stupendous call. Kudos. btw, wheres Bilderberg and how is it that you have connections to the mysterious Bilderberg clan?
As the day has progressed, I am more and more of the belief that there will be no rate cut tomorrow. Why? Because the market will take a look at it, rip it’s head off, shit down the neck and continue selling.
What’s more risky than the Fed not doing an emergency cut? The Fed DOING an emergency cut and the market realizing the Fed can’t really stop what’s just beginning. Last thing they want is to appear completely impotent.
Do you think Cramer’s show tonight was prerecorded? It is funny how he is backing away from his picks, teaching mom and pop “how to watch” his show. as if the lemmings dont follow his every word. One of life’s strange ironies, that we are about to get slamtasticked and he is back pedaling.
Good point wow. Maybe they’ve already realized they can’t do anything. Or maybe its Bernanke’s way of screwing with & ruining Greenspans legacy by letting his monetary policies’ bubble-bubble, toil & trouble, play out to their ultimate demise.
Whomever gets elected is gonna inherit quite the recession.
Naz futures just went green. WTF?
Cramer is a fucking moron. he should have never tried to call the bottom at 13k after 2 positive days. he can’t be that dumb that he actually believed that shit, or is he so wrapped up and full of himself that he actually thought that was the case. he blames bernanke for his bad calls, but even if the fed had dropped rates another 100 bps by now, we’d still be where we’re at on the indexes. assets are getting repriced and there aint no stopping the repo man.
did anybody hear his forecast that the dow would be up 2000 points if the govt bought the bond insurers….yeah, right! that’s to say that the dow would trade back up to 14k and everything else is fine and dandy. real estate would still get crushed and the consumer would still kick the can.
BOOOOYAAAHHH
ok, buylo, there will be intervention. there was intervention on fri so that the market would not be obviously shitting all over shrub and hammerhead on their coming out party. the shitgame has worked twenty times since 87, however by now, its built in. you know it, I know it, McFly knows it. JakeGimp does not know it, but we can’t take the other side of his little dick trades, unless you consider ten contracts to be a heavy position.
anyhow, you are going to be watching the index futures on your bloomberg pro, so you will know what’s up. fifty points on the diamonds in five minutes or less, and let them have your shortsells, piece by piece. the volume tomorrow would likely take a quarter of the federal budget to pull shit positive, so up then down is how they will be spending taxdollars. tomorrow will be busy for most people here, so you will prob need to count on yourself, however in the spirit of philanthropy, let us think that some will catch the Treasury trading its Goldturd accounts and give everyone a quick note.
I have one long left, and should the Lord of Tender Biscuits give me a chance to sell, I will sell with gladness. I am sitting here drinking cheap rum from the bottle, and cannot believe my eyes that the Naz just went green. Must need more rum.
or did AAPL leak a beat? Just the Naz is green.
i just started reading the blogs. this site is excellent btw. what are some other good blog sites besides Mish’s site and the RGE monitor?
Fly,
So do feel this is coming to an end. Or is there more pain to come?
Go to Romania…DO NOT PASS GO…DO NOT COLLECT $200 ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGE CHECK.
FYI — Wood and Jake win again. Bovespa down 6.6%
Just another one of my myriad shorts with which I’ve been transfering money directly from Calvino’s bus pass account (his and that of many other clueless illbreds) into my burgeoning coffers.
That’s the way it works, the strong eat the weak, and we toothpick out their remains from our incisors while laughing over strong bourbons by the fire.
Thanks for your bus pass money, Calvin, enjoy the walk to vocational school.
S%P is also green. They hit both of them.
jake – what am i reading when i see that futures are up? is this the start of a new futures trading session, the net net being that we are still headed for hell? or is this a rally? i dont know wtf i am reading. never like the present to learn something. BOOMER
This week only, special Bush-Bernake “stimulus package” available for immediate Romanian Leu conversion! Step right up!….
_____________________
(The Romanian leu briefly held the dubious distinction of being the world’s least valued currency unit, from January (when the Turkish lira dropped six zeros) to July 2005. However, the 1,000,000 lei bill was not the highest Romanian denomination ever. This distinction belongs to the 1947 5 million lei bill.)
yo, pikers .. the green you see on the futes is a new session. Its green from the down 4-5% level it closed earlier today.
Just ask yourself tomorrow, when your longs are getting machine gunned, “What am I going to do with my $800 rebate check?”.
Is that grammatically/structurally correct? Fuck, it’s bothering me.
Boom–
Who the freak knows, man? I’ll “wait and see” for my money, here.
The PPT has many wiles, and many guises.
look at the numbers!!! not green or red. dow indicating 11655, close on friday was 12099
Bruce — that’s kinda bullshit, ain’t it.
Does 95% of the investing world even know they’re going off a new number?
thank you, reader.
Yeah, we were down, what… 520 today (Dow)?
So we’re “net” still down 445 or so from Friday, yes?
Didn’t the Naz lead us down …. it’s ahead of the curve just as the US is ahead of the rest of the Globe with this “deflation” …. and what of the fact that yen carry trades are being unwound … so far commodity etf’s (DBA) are holding up while commodity stock etf’s (MOO) are rolling over, as with gold, etc. Will HF’s start selling commodities next which could provide an opportunity to short DBA and GLD and will the $ form a W bottom with other currencies tanking???
‘So we’re “net†still down 445 or so from Friday, yes?’
Are you actually asking this question????
I think the futures are reset because the Dow is listed at 11,652, which would still put us down over 400 points and the S&P is at 1271, which would still put us down over 50 points.
I think the world markets tonight will tell us a lot – if they keep going down, then tomorrow will be uglier than I think most people are even expecting now. If they close up overseas, then we may have avoided the worst being closed Monday.
I can definitely sense the fear that has been lacking the past few weeks however.
so NAZ closed 2340, indicated to open 1779?
a 600 pt drop?
I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
haha, the word of the night so far on Bloomberg seems to be “carnage”.
No, you are confusing Naz 100 futures and Naz composite.
diamonds, nas, and the s and p are all 1% off their lows.
calvino, where can i find that info?
alpha – you are correct. its the rum
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
Boomer … thats the NDX futes, the nascrack 100, not Nasdaq which is a composite of over 3000 cos
its misleading because they call it the nasdaq futes but its just the top 100 cos
Just back from Elysium (where I’ve a time share right off the first tee at “Field of Glory” Estates), and I see we’ve got some delicious trouble in the markets.
It’ll be a busy Tuesday children. Try not to overburden me with pleadings for financial mercy and what-not.
Just make sure you’re up to date on your tithes and blood sacrifices.
Asia taking another massive punch to the balls, down 4% on average.
If the FED doesn’t step in, who is going to supply bids?
Is it possible the -1350 trading curb will be triggered?
Broker what do you think DECK can get down to?
Current positions:
Longs:
MVIS (3rd), C, GRMN, GS
Short or Inverse:
SKF, FXP (4th), DECK (biggest position), DCR, DUG (second), SMN
Weightings: ~80% short and ~20% long
Just to be honest here yes I took brokers advice at the end of December. My biggest loser is MVIS even though I have a $3.31 cost basis and I am sticking with it cause I love the technology. Not that any of this means anything but thats the way I have things.
Wasn’t really paying attention, but the guy on Bloomberg mentioned something about China and a govt. cash call being issued and (whatever that is) was unnerving? Did anyone else catch that, what the f does it mean?
Never mind… apparently that was from earlier today…
Asia taking the ball from Europe which took the ball from Asia which decided over the weekend that the US is fucked & they are fucked if we’re fucked.
in eerie early trading
Japan -4.0%
Korea -4.1
Aussies -5.0
but the night be young , they could return to even or end up down 10%
Cut the Fucking Rates….Give me my $800 bucks now …Pah…I’ll bench everyone of you fuckers.
Follow the S&P and NASDAQ 100 futures (top two symbols) free here in real time:
http://www.gcitrading.com/stock-quotes.htm
LOL! Has the nose fallen off this morning, Tom?
Not for nothing kids, but we were waiting on one last bid for a company we’re selling, and the bid was from a large publicly (Nikkei) trade Japanese consumer goods maker.
The US President of their co., called this morning to tell us that after about $30,000 in sunk due diligence costs (they even hired a Big Four accounting firm), the parent had told them “no more acqusitions in dah U.S.”
Anecdotal evidence or … is Japan going “full fetal?”
Futures down 560 already.
Caddy, good link. I still want to see the dow – I noticed that a pig or two I have traded are modeling the dow like it was their mama pig. bidu doodoo in particular has been a proxy on the dow. you would think that it would be the Nas, but I have watched them roll in the dirt together.
Thanks Calvino. Here is a link for free real time Forex,Gold, and silver quotes. I am not sure how they can get away with real time for free and not delayed.
http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
I don’t want to hear you berating any of your quisling internet leech-drones, Fly, until you’ve taken your “protege” Daniel, to the “Woodshed” (no pun intended), for remaining long “enough” in a “homo-ish” straddle position to guarantee that he’ll stand in a tub of lukewarm water all day tomorrow, banking zero coin.
As I see more and more I am pulling more bids and pulling more covers and sells of inverses. How low do you guys think we could fall? Could this really be the panic of 08 or are we going to see 100 basis points lopped off the Fed Funds?
Caddy:
The futures and index data on this site is real time.
Fly: The time on futures says ten minute delay?
boomer,
I hope you sold those 10k trading shares of BOOM on Friday. It may hit $40 in the morning.
no worries.
i just read bank of china halted
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080121/bs_afp/chinahongkongbankingcompanyearnings_080121060533
Just to add an FYI, as well as how the elimination of the uptick rule makes shorting easier, “Myth Busters” found that simply shooting a bullet into a barrel is sufficient in killing the fish. You don’t even have to hit a fish with the bullet to kill it.
pfffft…. boc:
“The bank may announce a significant writedown on its 7.95 billion US dollars of investments in securities linked to US subprime mortgages”
punters… such a primitive economy with banks only writing down 8 billion…
China down another 5.5% on the open. Broker please comment on where you think FXP should open tomorrow?
FXP will open up $20, minimum.
The panic tomorrow could create some great oppurtunities… in CPB!!!
Bring on the soup lines!
Hey Bears,
Futures are green.
Dollar gaining nicely on other major currencies, namely the Euro and Pound.
By the way, quit posting old news.
It is vitally necessary to stay in the present moment in this game.
Bear of all Bears, Barton Biggs turning bullish.
Billionaire investor George Soros said the world was facing the worst financial crisis since World War Two and the United States was threatened with recession, according to an interview with the Austrian daily Standard.
“We really do have a serious financial crisis now,” Soros was quoted as saying.
Leonard,
great opportunity to stand in front of a speeding freight train tomorrow, if that tickles your fancy.
Futures are showing up for “today’s” session; however, was down big “yesterday”. That’s why there is confusion with the numbers. Bottom line, we are down big fuckin big time unless the futures are up 500 points “today”. It’s a little retarded when the futures trade on a day that the NYSE is closed. So, if the futures are up 250 at the open, the market will still be down 250 at the open.
Asshat, sounds like you are the one not in the present game. If you were, you too would be rooting for the futures to be down again, as it would mean you’d be banking coin. Based on your post, I can only guess you’re long and wrong.
Asshat gonna get slammed in this game unless he learns both the futures and equity game. Futures traded today and they got slammed. If the futures do not recoup the 500 points before the open, the equity market will be down the difference….oh….why bother?
BTW, would be a hoot to see the futures up 500 at the open – don’t think that has ever happened – even though it would mean that the equity market would open essentially flat.
Asshat Dip Buyer:
There is a difference between your kind of bears http://www.bearcityweb.com/bearchat.php
and being bearish the market right now. Don’t get those confused and you might trade a little better.
The PPT will be overwhelmed tomorrow by the amount of dollars traded. However, they can certainly juice the futures with very little $$$.
On another note it sure is worrisome knowing that many are running on empty as it pertains to puts going into tomorrow’s action. I expect this will fuel massive downside which should be trapped by the curbs but I still think we will see a 40-45+ handle on the VIX by the lows.
George Soros has been known for his blatant hyperbole to further his well known political agenda.
A socialistic, left wing, democratic talking-point, wind-up billionaire liberal, enjoying nothing more than a doomsday scenario to coincide with a Republican administration.
Is this really your source for a rigorous, unbiased economic appraisal?
BTW – has anyone seen Susan Li on Bloomberg TV (Asia). Nice!
What is the PPT that is referenced here often?
Dover-
The PPT is the Plunge Protection Team, known in reality as the Working Group on the Financial Markets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets
no asshat,
I prefer to get my news from anonymous internetsters who frequently make homo jokes… it’s why i’m here.
Dover:
P lunge
P rotection
T eam.
Fed, Paulson, The Bilderberg’s, Illumanti, etc, etc, etc….
The futures and index data on this site is real time.
As are the grammatical train wrecks.
(Look away, children!)
Alvani40, yeah, she’s pretty tight.
I have asked the PPT to make sure that anyone contributing to this blog will automatically get Food Stamps emailed to them, besides the $800 the gov. has also promised. So, don’t worry, long or short, everything will be allright!
Thanks Woodshedder and JakeGint.
fly would you be a buyer of fxp tmr for a swing trade?
If the Hang Seng closed right now FXP should essentially be up 25% if its a true 200% inverse.
Marty McFly has crashed the hapless oriental markets with a massive fxp position. China Commerce bank is willing to finance three container ship loads of glued sawdust furniture and thirty bonus intermodal trailers of cavitated auto parts, fob to any north american port of his choosing, if McFly will just quit shorting their markets.
To Mark Mobius – dude you are a bald fuck – wear the tonsure. And one more thing, ‘fuck you, I don’t think so.’
Hammerhead Hank, you are a bald fuck too, wear the tonsure.
Fly-
Earlier in the day you suggested you would go to cash, taking profits now that your target has been reached. So, if you will be cashing out some of your winners, what’s on the watch list for tomorrow for what you call “shooting fish?”
H Shares is down 11.2%. FXP should be up 22.4%… if the Feds don’t do a surprise cut.
India’s market closed …. down 9.75% after open
Ping An and LFC getting lit aflame, double digits in HK now. They’re tow of the biggest holdings in FXP.
FXP could be up 40% tomorrow.
DECK is a fish in a barrel.
Is it true that Dope on a Slope guy (Tim Knight) is caught long Nasdaq calls?
You have to be kidding me.
Him and Kass must get Asshat Awards.
India haulted on the open. Lol
India halted for 1 hr …. if she drops to -15% she’ll close again for another hour and restart again … developing!
And I didn’t get a fill on my INP short friday, damn!
Please keep Lulu in your hearts for tomorrow as well. She has some guy with a big cockroach tatoo up in a tree kicking for her. Cereally, it’s on her website. Thanks to whoever pointed that out, although I can not remember who it was.
Shorting FXY here seems logical as well should Japan keep getting Ginsued. Pulling my sells on FXP as I can’t seem to mark it to market this late at night. I am seeing a hazy 25-40% move.
On the topic of DECK. Are you fucking serious the more I look at this name the more I want to puke. Personally I think the name goes to 40. But what the fuck do I know.
Hang Seng now down 8% in trading. Thats 14% in 2 days! http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EHSI
(HK Bull here)
Not been in front of a computer much recently… look what happens when I piss off to Australia for a short holiday! (still have 3 weeks on the beach left)
Fucken wake up and Asia is gone! Seriously, the bastard is not there any more!
Luckily for me, I have a handful of Index put warrants which as of lunch time today (in HK), are up over 300% each! My current holdings for January are up around 314%, so bears… fuck you! Bulls, fuck you too!
HSI as of lunchtime close is down 8.04%, HSCEI (Chine enterprise index) is down 11.78% thanks very much!
I told you blokes a couple of weeks ago… you don’t know what a down day means over there 😀
HK Bull cracking another beer, and signing off!
Yes, Tim Knight is caught long a sizable amount of Nasdaq calls…In the interest of non-schaudenfreuding myself, I’ll just post his words and not leave my own impression.
“This is awful. Just awful.
It’s 4:45 in the morning. Even though it’s a market holiday, I had a worry in the pit of my stomach about the markets. Yesterday (which was Sunday) afternoon, I glanced at the GLOBEX, and saw it was nicely in the green. That lined up with the reading and charting I’d be doing over the weekend, including a lot of reading of people from a variety of disciplines. Including people for whom I have a lot of respect as technicians.
As you know, I’m the bear’s bear, but I was definitely anticipating a nice-sized bounce so I could (a) sell my NDX calls at a profit and then (b) reload the bear gun with puts.
Perhaps that was all too neat, easy, and predictable. I don’t know what Tuesday holds, because the opening bell is over 25 hours from now. But the screens I am seeing now from across the world are nothing less than sickening. Particularly since I’ve been waiting for “the big fall” for longer than I can remember, and I’d hate to think I would enter into it equipped with:
(a) a smattering of smallish equity puts (OK, 17 puts isn’t a smattering, but these are small positions); and
(b) a good-sized NDX call position
Worse yet, I was really hoping for more of a ‘stealth’ bear market, not a wipeout. Things are going to be rough, people. This is getting scary.”
http://www.slopeofhope.com/2008/01/oh-no.html
Shorting FXY here seems logical as well should Japan keep getting Ginsued.
LOL!
That’s doubly harsh on the Japs, since “Ginsu” is just a bullshit term made up by some slick Rick Amelican marketer.
err, India just opened, then closed! 10 minutes into trading, the market closed on the 10% limit rule… FUCK!
Some early earnings reports look decent:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2144090220080122?rpc=44
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2143865020080122
Aiiieeee!!
How emballassing! My malkets all getting sriced and diced by some booshit Amelican lazah shahp knife!
X-Pat Aussie??
Same as Hong Kong Tladah blagging about big coin he make in Hong Kong?
You whaling ballell now?
Nobody will be buying stocks tomorrow. Everybody will be selling. (I know that is theoretically impossible and doesn’t make sense. Somebody has to buy.)
It’s just that the buyers will take a “fuck it, I’m not buying” day off to go get a haircut.
We’ll hit a circuit breaker. The 10% one, if we’re lucky.
xpat-Aussie and HK Bull one in same. XA on raptop for horiday! 😀
Big ass computer at home office gather dust 😉
Hey Boom,
Do you mind? We’re trying to have a party here, for crap’s sake.
Sorry, but I am always that guy at the party. Rooted for San Diego and NYG. Congrats on that btw.
Jacob’s is a BOOM customer. Great report and strong 08 guidance.
AAPL after hours too, among others.
Tomorrow is going to go down in infamy. I cant wait to watch the fireworks.
Dammit. I took Friday off as I thought that would be the big day. Now, I have to work tomorrow.
Maybe I’m getting the flu.
The best part about this blog?
That fucker- le grande pousee, AKA peachin, no longer posts here.
I’ll pay him to keep his comment’s to “Long Nasdaq Calls into the Crash’s” blog.
i called in sick today, tomorrow and wednesday.
India has re-opened… watching with interest.
nas march futures just went limit offer.. halted.