Make no mistake, today was a major victory for the bulls. In the face of a “fuck you, you’re dead” sell off, the bulls clawed back and pared losses, significantly.
Not to be stubborn, I took profits on portions of my inverse etf’s, namely [[DUG]], [[SMN]] and [[EEV]].
Now, without a doubt, I feel the market will go much, much lower. If you believe the entire credit crisis warrants a minor 8% sell off, then go ahead and buy stocks—like a drunken idiot.
Again, at some point this year, I feel the DOW will be lower to the tune of 15% or double the current loss.
The reason why I took profits on some of my inverse etf’s was to build a fucking warchest. God willing, the lemmings who buy financial stocks will bid them up, over the next few trading sessions, enabling “The Fly” to bulk up on his [[SKF]] position.
As you know, I bought 3,000 SKF at the close, just in case.
Bottom line: if [[AAPL]] reports a good number, there is a good chance the market will spike higher tomorrow. I’m not interesting in making zillions, all at once. I’ll patiently wait for opportunities to arise, while holding a very large cash position.
The one thing I will not do is go long stocks, with the exception of special opportunities like [[CMO]], which is on fucking fire.
UPDATE: AAPL warned. Down we go. My [[REW]] position will shit all over the bulls tomorrow, much to their chagrin.
NOTE: In case you’re wondering, I was up 1.75% today.
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Fly, I got this e-mail. Is this just some ambulance chasing schmuck? His complete address is [email protected].
Thanks.
“””The Law Office of Bruce Murphy is investigating the price drop of
shares of MVIS. If you purchased shares of MVIS, you may be entitled
to recover damages for stock losses. To discuss your rights and
interests, you may contact bgm@…
Late Friday, Microvision (MVIS) CFO Jeff Wilson told Tech Trader
Daily that he can’t comment on the recent dramatic drop in the
company’s stock price.
Wilson noted that the company at the recent Consumer Electronics Show
unveiled its pico projector technology called “The Show.” He said
that “from a business standpoint,” the company “continues to execute”
on its business strategy. He said the reception to the CES
announcements have been “great.”
Wilson did say that Nasdaq told him there has been “unusually high
shorting activity in the stock.”
Microvision shares have fallen for nine consecutive sessions; in that
period the stock has dropped 44%, from $4.50 to $2.54. On Friday, the
stock dropped two cents.””””
That guy is a glorified ambulance chaser. He trolls message boards of stocks that have big moves to the downside looking to start class action lawsuits.
Thanks shinkdew
AAPL down $11 right now AH
update: down $20
Haahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaa!
As you can see, I punish my children who are cautious in an overly “Greek” way, if you get my drift.
Little did you know that earlier this month I’d replaced Steve Jobs’ frontal lobe with a pair of matching Abyssinian ermins!
Short AAPL, via REW.
I do not regret taking some money off the table, for I will redeploy it with a frenzied proficiency tomorrow.
da pain, boss da pain
Look for the “iWeasel” to debut soon, children!
You had better leave an extra barrel of extra virgin olive oil at my altar tomorrow, just in case.
Or just an extra virgin, as I’m not that picky these days.
That was fun – may I have another? Picking up some shares down here and will hold through the new decade. I’m off to cry like a little girl.
There is more carnage left, get drunk and buy stocks fuckers. We are going down.
what was that gamble, 750 down $20 …. not nice to fuck with shorticus.
Don’t buy aapl here.
Downgrades coming.
Employee8,
Yup, your math is dead on. Who is “shorticus”?
Good thing I live in FL. If I see anyone wearing those f-ugly boots I might puke on them.
Fly,
Done.
I am ok with the $146 ave price I now have. Not looking to get out anytime soon. Guess I have more money than brains. Should have forked out more money for those fucked up movies at Sundance and stayed another couple of days in Park City. Would have been loads cheaper.
Hell, for that money I could have paid Mary Catherine Ellis the same amount to peel off her clothes, get up on the desk and bark like a dog.
Who is “shorticus�
I thought that would be obvious by now my son.
I am “the whirlwind.”
Heath Ledger
OUT
Considering that I’ve lost about 1% of what Alvari has lost on the AAPL trade, I’m not too pissed off.
In fact, I’m sort of glad this is what happened…it re-proves one of my trading rules…don’t hold through earnings. Everything has to go right for the stock to gain, while all it takes is for one thing to go wrong for a massive drop.
Plus, it shows a good indication that what we had today is not the (long-term) bottom.
Covered EWZ at 68 but still holding DECK short …. bitch
Well, that sucked.
So, do I buy ultrashorts first thing in the AM and risk sitting on one of my balls if the market recovers, or do I wait?
1.75% – You should get that limp checked out, pimp.
A little help here from a long time SPWR short, need some help translating this double-talk:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080122/aqtu215.html?.v=11
“As a result of the class A common stock price conversion trigger, SunPower will classify the $425 million aggregate principal amount of the debentures as short-term debt on its December 30, 2007 balance sheet. In addition, SunPower will expense approximately $8.2 million and $1.0 million of unamortized debt issuance costs in its fourth fiscal quarter of 2007 and first fiscal quarter of 2008, respectively.”
Am I correct in thinking this is announcing 430+ million in unexpected debt to the upcoming earnings on Thur? This sounds good to me (on a negative side).
But I am clearly limited in my intellectual abilities here…
Have to agree with Gartman, Stay long GLD and DBA/RJA but get short everything else on rallies in anticipation of the retest of todays lows and remember there is still another leg down according to Wood, right Wood?
Yikes, Louise Yamada, TA, just said that relative to 2002-03′ we are only 1/3 of the way to the bottom so far!
Heath Ledger is dead. The market may now rally in earnest. Odd no?
fly,
when do you anticipate downgrades? i have aapl 150 feb puts
dow -9.75
spx -10.75
nazz -13.5
russ2k -12.33
not that i differ with your scenario & not to splits hairs dude drosophilia, but we are down more than 8% .
You can add 5% to those losses fm the oct high.
It’s easier when the sheep huddle together…
Who is Heath Ledger? Inventor of the Heath Bar or am I showing my age again?
wow-
No.
Without thinking hard or clicking your link, I think what it means is that they are converting convertible bonds to stock, due to it reaching a certain pps.
If you held a bond, you could convert it for stock.
It was already on the books, it’s just being reclassified from LT to ST, as per their previously stated intentions.
a tragic waste about heath bar ledger
wtf
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/actor-heath-ledger-is-found-dead/index.html?hp
according to the girl here, heath ledger was the dude from brokeback mountain.
Thanks for the help Danny, my head was swimming after today…
Come on you old farts, everybody knows who Heath Ledger was.
I’m surprisingly saddened by this, even though I usually couldn’t care less about celebrities.
Never heard of him. Was he James Bond in the last movie…Golden Eye, right?
AAPL – gave no real explanation for why their seasonality projections are so much lower than The Street (0.94 vs 1.09). Additionally, they don’t include any projections for iPhone seasonality because there are no previous March quarter comparisons. They just started sending iPhones overseas in November. AAPL only has about 1% of the wireless market. Hmmmmm, seems like a nice sandbag excuse come April.
Company added 3B to bottom line raising cash to 18.5B. There is no corporate debt. With China in the works, European sales just starting, mass marketing via Best Buy here in the states just beginning, etc. – I am more than willing to have the $146 price point on the stock with a 2-3 year time horizon.
There definately will be a better opportunity than today’s price, but I will be accumulating more and more of this stuff at those lower prices. Investor panic is a gift. The price fell all the way down here within the first 5 minutes of the news coming out about guidence. There is no way anyone was able to digest any objective information – it was shoot first and ask questions later, which gives us an entry that is over 30% from it’s high a few weeks ago. It was a sloppy way to get it – I’ll grant you, but I am very happy with the average price that I have and look forward to a better average price.
Guy Adami says it will go lower still tomorrow and to buy just before the close anticipating 10-15 pts upside (maybe with the next rate cut).
Employee8,
I like Adami – he fucks up but admits it. I; however, believe he is correct here with AAPL. Will be adding to my position if it does. Many thanks.
The things that they can do with the cash they have on-hand, the fact that their share of the mobile and desktop/laptop market is so small, and the fact that their products fucking roar….well, I was dreaming for a chance like this at this level. I have kicking myself ever since I got out at $84 per share. All I need to do is keep telling myself this as it continues lower through the downturn we are having. Do not sell….do not sell…do not sell….
There was no need to ‘digest’ information…the trading robots were set to sell as soon as guidance fell below ‘expectations’.
In case that was a serious question…Pierce Brosnan was in GoldenEye. Heath Ledger played 1/2 of the gay cowboy duo in Brokeback (Oscar nominated) and will play The Joker in the upcoming Batman sequel. He was also in a bunch of romantic comedies, so the ladies loved him.
THIS JUST FUCKING IN!!!
Steve Jobs just called Bernanke and they have dispatched a helicopter to the markets for the morning. Ben has loaded a rocket launcher with a 50 bip cut for tomorrow. Ben wants to keep the stock up and will make monetary policy based on AAPL stock.
God bless Helicopter Ben!!!!
Fly is there any explanation of the implosion of MVIS? This is some fucked up trading activity. Is the fund done selling yet?
dp – kidding.
i was pretending to be old, hence the golden eye reference.
you;ll have to talk to Shed about the gay movie.
The reaction to the AAPL guidance is comical, burt revealing of overall sentiment.
Here’s a prior history of guidance versus actual, for as far back as I had patience to go. Where a range was reported for AAPL’s guidance, I listed the high end:
Q1FY08 – guidance 9.2b/1.42, actual 9.6b/1.76
Q4FY07 – guidance 5.7b/0.65, actual 6.22b/1.01
Q3FY07 – guidance 5.1b/0.66, actual 5.41b/0.92
Q2FY07 – guidance 4.9b/0.56, actual 5.26b/0.87
Q1FY07 – guidance 6.2b/0.73, actual 7.12b/1.14
Q4FY06 – guidance 4.6b/0.48, actual 4.84b/0.64
Q2FY08 – guidance 6.8b/0.94, actual ???
Now, the analysts and the rest of the planet are well aware that AAPL guides very conservatively. However, some observers had come to believe that AAPL had decided to fess up and stop playing the game when it gave its surprisingly strong guidance of $9.2 billion a quarter ago. I’d say that those observers are mostly wrong.
Note that the sandbagging probably occurs more on the margin guidance than on the revenue guidance. I think that Q2FY08 will not be an exception. AAPL managed $1.01 on $6.2 billion revenue in Q407, so I think $0.94 on $6.8 billion in revenue is laughable.
A 10% increase in revenue in Q2 vs. the prior Q4 is quite decent by AAPL’s historical standards, so I’m very encouraged by that. I’d be more worried if the earnings side looked good while revenue growth was weak.
AAPL can also benefit from strategic investments during periods of market weakness. The company has an excellent investment record and has a pile of cash (almost $21/share).
It may well be that a poor economy and iPod saturation will lead to a period of slower growth at AAPL. But there was nothing in the earnings report or conference call to support that belief.
I think what’s going on is that people are worried that AAPL won’t be able to continue its stellar growth. While AAPL’s guidance did nothing to feed those worries, it failed to soothe those worries, so it sells off.
Given that people are inclined to act on their worries in the current market, I think you let the market sell AAPL off, and then you buy the stock if you like AAPL. I like to buy low and sell covered calls, choosing an out-of-the-money strike, with the amount out of the money depending on where I see AAPL moving and how willing I am to give up some shares.
So my wife comes home from work and asks me if I heard that Heath Ledger died. I am apparently the only one in the world who didn’t know who he was. So I google his name and it turns out this Heath person is the ex-son in law of Larry Williams. If you asked me who Larry Williams is I would know. Different strokes I guess.
I didnt know who that dude was either.
why the fuck would they put that on cnbc?
… which is conclusive evidence that Danny and I are not gay (no offense intended to gays).
Who’s Larry Williams, and is he dead?
closed out fxp late this afternoon. for a few days. head spinning. whipsaw, whiplash, no fun.
you were up 1.75 % today. Now that is pathetic. You call youself a daytrader?
Seriously, who the fuck is Larry Williams?
Heath Ledger was the guy in The Knight’s Tale, right? He was pretty good in that.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen any of his other movies… geez he just wasn’t that big a star. I guess people are making a big deal about it because:
a) he was in a “groundbreaking” movie about Flyover State Homers and their troubles, so he’s a PC hero, and;
b) It’s still kind of shocking when even a semi-famous person dies so young.
What if someone sacrificed this Heath guy to Shorticus? We could be in for a bear tomorrow.
Not trying to be a dick, but let’s stop this AAPL suck off. Everyone gets way too emotionally attached to these stocks. Fly, you need a virtual tampon dispenser on the right hand side there.
AAPL is trading as a growth company. If it doesn’t meet growth projections, it’s going to trade as a value company. Value holders do not buy at PEs well above S&P levels.
Let’s look at the growth levels in each product line:
* iPod shipments only 5% YOY.
* iPhone shipments inline.
* Macbook shipments up 44% YOY. Wow that’s awesome. Let’s look at HPQ, the pimp in the group. HPQ notebook shipments for last QTR was 77% YOY. That’s awesomer. And HPQ trades at 15x. Even POS Acer reached 74% YOY growth. AAPL got little bit over half of HPQ’s notebook growth. Does AAPL have business channels like HPQ? No, their Macbook business is totally reliant on the consumer. With a recession, the consumer is a big null pointer.
* Download movie service growth unknown.
AAPL should be trading at (the most) a PE of 30. That’s around $105/share. It should get there by the end of this week.
Shorted @ $158.39, 25 minutes before close. Still holding.
Larry Williams is (was) a big deal trader of equities and commodities who was arrested for tax evasion. My mailbox was always full of his junk mail selling his programs. His daughter was married to the Heath guy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Williams_(trader)
Anyone hear/have major order/data/access problems delays today.
atrade was in the shitter, shut down their phones too, someone say fidelity was toast too. Any others?
picked this up at RGE…
New Rule invoked…
This morning the NYSE has invoked Rule 48, a rarely-used rule that allows the NYSE to suspend the requirement to disseminate price indications at the open. This makes it easier and faster to open stocks.
This was only approved by the SEC on December 6, and was only used once–on December 12, 2007. The rule suspends the requirement to disseminate price indications at the open. This makes it easier and faster to open stocks.
Here is the statement from the NYSE:
Today, New York Stock Exchange has invoked Rule 48, which provides the exchange with the ability to suspend the requirement to disseminate price indications and obtain floor-official approval prior to the opening when extremely high market-wide volatility could cause floor-wide delays in opening of securities on the exchange.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22781946
Asshat award: I bought 300 shares of FXP and 100 shares of DXD at the highest prints this morning – 106 and 65, respectively. FUCK ME!! i placed mkt orders thinking the dow would continue to go down after seeing the futures unphased by the rate cut.
Whoa there Nelly, the futures are down!!!!!!!!! Unacceptable, time to cut the rates again, and I’m calling Trichet , King and Dodge on conference to make sure they do it, or else I’m going to helicpoter over and bury their houses in garbage dollars til they suffocate! Muuuuuuuuuahhhhaha.
Look here Foolio, people whos carried overnite with completely reasonable shorts, like bidu, crm and deck got trickfucked by Ben bitch Helicpoter, so take it easy on yourself.
Heath Ledger dines this night with Shorticus in Elysium!
Tell me children, what are these ovoid pharmaceutical tablets he keeps demanding?
I don’t want to seem rude…
thought you might be interested to know that Heath bar Ledger’s x wife Michelle Williams… {daughter of Larry Williams}won the “world cup of futures trading” by turning 10k into a 1000% gain in 1997. Her father Larry Williams competed in the same competition in 1987 turning 10k into 1,147,000 in 1 year. odd no!
PKM wrote:
Even POS Acer reached 74% YOY growth.
A merger is not growth.