A Losers Tape

Up 200—down 200.

It’s nearly impossible to win when the market is jerking you around like that. Look at today’s oil trade. Oil was up, yet oil stocks fell through the floor boards.

On Friday, it appeared the worst was over. Everyone was back to doing lines of blow, while planning their trips to strip clubs. Then, after an egregious weekend, everyone remembered the end of times was upon us, effectively selling stocks for dear life and sanity.

With my money, I am still frozen, masterfully hedged both long and short. While it’s true, I am taking brass knuckled jabs to the teeth, being long Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] , [[DIG]] , [[RKH]] and [[UYG]] . It’s also true that my short positions in Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] , Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] and Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] are bountiful.

And, let’s not forget, I am still long [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] , [[REW]] and [[TWM]] .

Basically, I believe the market will get boot stomped, in a very violent way, during the months of September and October. Stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] and Citigroup Inc. [[C]] will nose dive, effectively mugging people like Bill Miller and the Fast Money crew.

The good news: the Godly folks at iBC are diligently working on incredibly tasteful stock ranking software. It is very complex and has taken months to develop. My guess, it might be ready for launch, over the next month or two.

More on this later.

Right here, it makes sense to bet against infrastructure stocks: VMC, Texas Industries, Inc. [[TXI]] , Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. [[MLM]] , Foster Wheeler Ltd. [[FWLT]] , Fluor Corporation (NEW) [[FLR]] , ABB Ltd (ADR) [[ABB]] and Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] . And, the casino operators are so subprime, it’s not even funny. There, I like bets against Las Vegas Sands Corp. [[LVS]] , MGM MIRAGE [[MGM]] and Boyd Gaming Corporation [[BYD]] .

Finally, with the vix spiking hard today, I would not be surprised to see the market rally tomorrow.

Just remember, when in doubt, unable to discern what makes sense, bet against Bill Miller and his retarded asset management division, via short LM.

UPDATE:

Hat tip: Denninger

No one cares what Dick Bove, Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke or Ducati have to say (note the “bell curve analogy”).

The market ignores the scurrilous rants of Cramer and grotesque recommendations of Larry Kudlow.

They spit on the machinations of “The Commodity King,” Dennis Gartman, while farting in the face of Warren Buffett.

Every time Abbey Joseph Cohen speaks, her words are ignored, as if she was a red nosed clown.

Analysts from around the globe scream louder and louder, hoping for someone, anyone, to listen to them and buy a little stock. Yet, every time they (the people) listen, they are assailed and flogged with heavy capital losses.

For years, the analysts have been wrong. As a matter of fact, they are always wrong—yet Wall Street still listens to their opinions— as if they meant something.

They (the analysts) are marched onto the sets of CNBC and Bloomberg, wearing their finest cotton and shiniest shoes. Their brains are picked and pried, as if they had the cure for cancer, when in fact their logic is nothing more than vacuous balderdash.

For years, the CEO’s of our banks have misappropriated bank deposits, leading to ghastly and barnyardesque losses, all the while our regulators focused in on naked short sellers or low end stock peddlers.

See, we have a problem and no one cares. All we get are band aid solutions, with sophisms from our leaders.

In summary, the problem is not bottom up, but top down. Nothing will change, until we start listening to the people who care (Ron Paul and men like him).

Top pick: short Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]]

My “secret win” in Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] has suddenly morphed into a not-so-secret loss. I deserve it and more. After all, what was I thinking?

The Government cheese makers are busy. The smoke stacks are active and newly minted cheese is ready to be delivered. I can almost smell it.

With that in mind, I have opted to hold onto my hedges, until Wednesday. Don’t ask why.

Essentially, I am flat again, with losses in [[RKH]] , [[UYG]] and gains in [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] .

On the plus side, my bet against Bill Miller and his small brain is going swell, with Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] feeling the hot blade this morning. And, Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] is down a buck. I’m short that too.

Aside from my LEH loss, I am just giving money away in my oil plays, especially [[DIG]] .

All in all, I am just hanging around, waiting for a nuke to detonate or something. Sometime today, I might try to short more Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] or not.

I may just hang around, throwing water at CNBC, every time they piss me off.

As most of you know, “The Fly” had a most disturbing mountain vacation last summer. Well, I’ve done it again.

It all started when the Mrs. wanted to venture off to some water park resort area, so that our three kids could go on slides and flimsy rafts. Much to my chagrin, this trip was coordinated with one of the neighboring families.

The Fathers name is Dave. Dave is a decent guy with a rather subdued demeanor. However, one thing that stands out is his egregious tan. See, Dave is jewish; but he looks African-American—due to his obsession with celestial fireballs.

With zero experience driving up to this “resort,” coupled with hating my navigation system, I decided to trail Dave, all the way there.

Big mistake.

Unbeknownst to me, aside from his addiction to harmful rays and cigarettes, Dave thinks he’s a race car driver too. With 4 kids in his car, Dave felt it was necessary to, at all times, double the allowable speed limit. On several occasions, he had to slow down to a paltry 80mph, so that I could catch up. He was booking 90mph down winding mountain curves, just so that he could make it to the poolside extra early.

After my nightmarish drive, we took our seats near one of the pools and began to apply sunscreen to the kids.

Being the tough guy that I am, when Mrs. Fly asked me if I wanted any (sunscreen), I said: “nah, I’m okay.” I even took time out of my day to point a finger (or two) at men with sunscreen all over their faces, calling them “bird sh*t bathers,” while chuckling (I never laugh).

Anyway, my older son made sure his Dad (me) went on all the insane rides. We waited on long lines, in order to slide down some tunnels, going like 300mph, depositing us into murky pools.

On one slide, I thought it made sense to have my younger kids “go it alone.” To make a long story short, on one of the mat slides, my youngest son dislodged from the mat. Seeing this occur, anxiously, I waited for him at the end of the tunnel, preparing to catch him. Much to my chagrin, he was traveling at the speed of sound by the time he made it to the end, effectively knocking me under water (head first backwards)—knocking both of my water shoes off. Thinking fast, with one arm, I held him up by his life jacket, while I began the process of drowning in some dishonorable pool. Quickly, I let go of him, so that I could catch my footing and take him out of the water. Mind you, all of this occurred in front of a teenage lifeguard, who was laughing at my plight, as she applied sun tanning lotion to her arms.

Following that, we went on a variety of long lines, just for some cheap 10 second thrills, most of which were of no amusement to me.

By 4pm, I started to feel very hot. The altitude was high and the sun was robust. Having an Irish complexion was of no help to “The Fly,” as the devil’s son beat down on his Godly flesh. Going back to my lounge chair, I saw Dave taking in rays like a solar panel. That man makes Angelo Mozilo look like a pale nordic or an albino—no kidding.

Suddenly, he made an offhand remark to me: “boy are you going to feel it tomorrow.”

“Huh,” I shot back.

I scurried back to the unpleasant restroom to get a glance at the mirror. Upon reflection, I knew it was too late.

I was burnt to a cinder.

Quickly, I asked Mrs. Fly for some of that “cowardly sunscreen.” She obliged. However, this time, she was rather obnoxious about the whole ordeal—with sort of an “I told you so” tone to her voice.

Unfortunately, I was “forced” to remain in that sun infested hellhole, for another 3 hours. The sunscreen did very little to help alleviate the constant drubbing that fireball appropriated to my face, back, legs and arms.

By the end of that day, the sun had flexed its muscle on Senor Tropicana and reduced his agility to nil, who’s movements resembled those of old people in wheeled chairs or morons from the 80’s “doing the robot.”

After that, I followed Mr. Bronze aka Dave, all the way back home—who found it necessary to make numerous lane changes along the way, doing 100mph in the darkest freeways known to man.

Off to apply some aloe vera.

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbt-08wicDM 450 300]

I’m leaving early today, taking off to my weekend hiatus.

For the day, I just about broke even, proving my ability to travel time, via a plutonium powered time machine. Keep in mind, there was nothing in Woodcheddar’s charts that made me buy [[RKH]] and [[UYG]] yesterday.

Aside from the obvious, I made money in a variety of long positions, including, but not limited to, Starbucks Corporation [[SBUX]] , Assurant, Inc. [[AIZ]] , Auxilium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. [[AUXL]] , Valeant Pharmaceuticals International [[VRX]] , Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] and The Clorox Company [[CLX]] .

Conversely, I gave back some coin in my shorts in Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] , Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] and First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] .

Unlike everyone else, I think today’s dip in energy names present a good entry point. With [[DIG]] , I will buy down to $80, then pray to the stock Gods to prey upon short sellers.

In closing, never bet against the man in a time machine. And, furthermore, never bet against “space alien magicians,” who frequent low end eateries, just for the “atmosphere.”

Top pick: Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]]

Some retarded fund, with large natural gas positions ,is getting blown out. Hence, natty [[UNG]] , is getting mud stomped.

Other rumors of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] getting bought out has to be chicanery. My guess, they will unload their asset management division and raise new capital. This is all window dressing. However, in the event I am wrong, I am long until Monday—hook or crook.

Something is brewing with Fannie Mae [[FNM]] /Freddie Mac [[FRE]] .

Will the government step in at the equity, preferred or bond level? Or, will they do the right thing and make the bond holders take a haircut?

My guess, we will hear something definitive Monday morning.

On light volume, Mother Market has decided to stick it to the bears today. We are in a very tight, low volatility, trading range—as evidenced by a sub 20 vix reading. Should we leg lower again, the market will touchdown on 10,500, with a vix reading of 30-32.

This is all setting up very nicely for cash rich bears. Let this rally go. Come back to the table next week, to stick your claws in some doomed banks and asset managers.

Trying to get in early, I bought a small position in Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] . There are rampant rumors spreading over Akamai Technologies, Inc. [[AKAM]] —possible buyout. For my money, I’d rather be in EQIX—so I am doing just that.

NOTE: Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] can’t catch green, even if it were living in the open fields of Ireland.

I bought 2,000 Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] @ $77.20.

Disclaimer: If you buy EQIX because of this post, your only son will become a gangster rapper. And, you may lose money.

Developing…

[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=bslpmwFlJoA 450 300]

For those of you who are unfamiliar with “Costanza trading,” watch this clip.