Up 200—down 200.
It’s nearly impossible to win when the market is jerking you around like that. Look at today’s oil trade. Oil was up, yet oil stocks fell through the floor boards.
On Friday, it appeared the worst was over. Everyone was back to doing lines of blow, while planning their trips to strip clubs. Then, after an egregious weekend, everyone remembered the end of times was upon us, effectively selling stocks for dear life and sanity.
With my money, I am still frozen, masterfully hedged both long and short. While it’s true, I am taking brass knuckled jabs to the teeth, being long Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] , [[DIG]] , [[RKH]] and [[UYG]] . It’s also true that my short positions in Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] , Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] and Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] are bountiful.
And, let’s not forget, I am still long [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] , [[REW]] and [[TWM]] .
Basically, I believe the market will get boot stomped, in a very violent way, during the months of September and October. Stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] , Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] and Citigroup Inc. [[C]] will nose dive, effectively mugging people like Bill Miller and the Fast Money crew.
The good news: the Godly folks at iBC are diligently working on incredibly tasteful stock ranking software. It is very complex and has taken months to develop. My guess, it might be ready for launch, over the next month or two.
Right here, it makes sense to bet against infrastructure stocks: VMC, Texas Industries, Inc. [[TXI]] , Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. [[MLM]] , Foster Wheeler Ltd. [[FWLT]] , Fluor Corporation (NEW) [[FLR]] , ABB Ltd (ADR) [[ABB]] and Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] . And, the casino operators are so subprime, it’s not even funny. There, I like bets against Las Vegas Sands Corp. [[LVS]] , MGM MIRAGE [[MGM]] and Boyd Gaming Corporation [[BYD]] .
Finally, with the vix spiking hard today, I would not be surprised to see the market rally tomorrow.
Just remember, when in doubt, unable to discern what makes sense, bet against Bill Miller and his retarded asset management division, via short LM.
UPDATE:
[youtube:http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=712kRqri2No 450 300]Hat tip: Denninger
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Volume?
volume appears to be irrelevant.
We are just rocking back and forth. No direction is clear.
The ignorance of most people on financial matters is so powerful and far-reaching, you can smell it on Jupiter. The ignorance of those in the financial media is worse–You can smell it all the way to Uranus.
Fly, why do you think something will happen with financials by wednesday?
The most prevalent trend has been the flip flop. Costanza every trade. The market hasn’t gone up 3 days in a row, OR followed through on an big up day in months. So irrespective of other details, you have to be suspicious on a day like friday (3 up in a row) or a day like to today (for shorting into weakness).
You remember in jan-march when 100% of opening gaps were faded?
Could bounce tomorrow based on that premise, but according to my shit we aren’t “st oversold.”
I just do.
Do not question “The Fly.” He will throw bags of rice at you, from the luxury of his helicopter.
I want to buy one of these mini-helicopters but I am concerned that they are gay.
http://www.iconaircraft.com/
I assume you have a legit ‘copter Fly.
Pros / cons?
Beware the cheese-makers.
Fly you sun toasted wretch. Look to the charts. They are so pretty, very pretty, so pretty and wise. I will down your chopper with my chinese made, canadian army issue, anti-aircraft launcher. Hee. Hee.
Pros
1. The aircraft has its own parachute.
2. It’s a two-seater.
3. Room for onboard supply of tequila
4. You could proliferate your “Mile High Club” status
Cons
1. You could die.
I am looking forward to Sept and Oct, when you will be able to drop various F bombs
funny bombs
fruity bombs
faggish bombs
BUT NO
fucking bombs
Chivas, you forgot foppish bombs
Prospectus,
lmao
FLY
How about that FED short now?
Thoughts
ad – That was perfect. You are absolutely correct. I’m getting one.
prospectus – hilarious.
FED short?
Not yet, but soon.
i actually agree that the PPT does something with fannie/freddie or there is a Lehman transaction of some sort. i thought this would’ve happened over the wknd. i think something happens with fannie/freddie bc the PPT realizes how they are affecting everything from mortgage rates to valuations to other transactions. if you were looking at Lehman, wouldn’t you wait until something happens with fann/fred before diving into Lehman.
The Weight …. guess turnaround is fair play Fly. After multitudes of ideas being stolen from this blog by the CNBC crew, Fly posts their “take the weight off Fannie” idea from Fast Money tonight …. Touche!
Edit: just saw the hat tip to Denninger … guess Fast Money steals from everyone … figures.
This market reminds me of my days on Trafalmadore
Now a Cramer rec on CLNE …. time to sell, sell, sell!
Once again, The Fly and Cramer are right on the money.
I like PCR as an infrastructure short, no?
I posted that clip before Fast Money aired.
FLY
What does the “master of masters” think will happen to the common of FRE and FNM.
Please enlighten us, your heiness.
Boots
Fly,
Maybe if you started recommending Icelandic zero coupon bonds, Fast Money might pick up on that story.
Those guys gotta be sneaking a peak at the game on this blog.
Barrons did a piece on rates in Iceland this weekend …. like 13% short term and 21% long term but currency risk with dollar rebounding … what do those zeros yield? U S zeros quadrupled from the seventies when yields were about 13%.
some homeless guy on kudlow is talking about bernarkie and a bull market.
really scraping the bottom for guests.
No doubt The Fly’s readership dwarf’s that of Denninger’s, therefore credit where credit is due … Fly wins again, even when it appeared that he was losing … Viz?
That video is very good. Thanks for posting.
I think this sums it up:
Imagine the Government and the banks are the NFL and you and me, the common investor and taxpayer are the Kansas City Chiefs.
http://www.engadget.com/2008/08/25/epoq-egp-pp01-kirf-projector-phone-now-shipping/
Epoq EGP-PP01 KIRF projector phone now shipping
Sigh. We’re still stoked about phones with built-in projectors, but we’re not at all okay with the first commercially-available unit being the nasty Epoq EGP-PP01 iPhone clone — yet we’ve got to hand it to China King for being the first out the gate with a handset that’ll beam a 30-inch VGA image on the wall for two hours off the built-in battery. Of course, that doesn’t mean we think anyone should actually drop $550 on this uninspired piece, but if you’ve absolutely got to show off you witty texting banter to the entire bar, this is your only option.
Free To Kill
Loser’s Tape?
I’m Winning…
I’m the first to post “The Weight” by the way, sans ironic comparisons.
Many will tell you the woman is not “Fannie,” btw.
+++++
Holy Shit!!! Mr. Fly your time machine must have a big piece of shit in the flux capacitor!!!! Great pick this week!!!! What can you tell me about tomorrow’s stock picks?
Your Mother is a goat milker.
and his father? a brick.
Fly don’t you want to say go fuck a shoe??? Danny you should take fly’s dick out of your mouth and start breathing…. Love you all. Please give me some neg karma.
I was quoting a cartoon.
“his mother was a chicken, and his father? a brick”
LFC first half net down 32%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/china-life-first-half-net-down/story.aspx?guid=%7BE268DA85%2D2CA0%2D4F7E%2D90A1%2D72906A8B6DF3%7D
Newbie does have a point…
That CKing phone is nauseating.
It looks like something you’d find on the ground after a Chevette backed into a vending machine.
Nice keypad layout, too.
1-2-3-4
5-6-7-8
*-9-0-#
That projector phone is an 8 track tape deck dressed up like a 70’s remote control