Predictions For 2009

The euro will continue to collapse, calling into question its viability.

The dollar will remain a safe harbor, crushing many dollar bears along the way.

Oil prices will decrease in volatility, settling in around $30 per barrel.

Gold will collapse in the second half of 2009, under $500 per ounce.

Natural gas prices will trade in a range of $3.50-$6 for the entire year.

The price of corn, wheat and other agricultural products will collapse, making life very difficult for farmers.

Residential home prices will fall by another 15%.

Commercial real estate will feel the full brunt of the credit crisis, with vacancies sky rocketing to record levels.

AAPL will trade down to $50, before recovering.

GOOG will trade down to $250.

Rumors of a CHK bankruptcy will run rampant.

Most oil/gas stocks will fall by as much as 50%.

Hynix Semiconductor will file for bankruptcy protection.

AMD will file for bankruptcy protection.

MU will file for bankruptcy protection.

GE will fall into the single digits.

Several high profile homebuilders will fold.

The bubble in t-bills will continue until late 2009, sending yields to ridiculously low levels.

Obama’s stimulus program will disappoint.

50% of solar stocks will go away or melt into oblivion.

Taxes will rise, drastically.

Numerous states will request emergency funding from the Federal Government.

The unemployment rate will climb to 12%.

Bank stocks will fall by another 50% before recovering.

Water Utilities will outperform in 2009.

Russia will continue to devalue its currency.

Emerging markets will outperform Western stock markets.

The Dow will fall by 15%.

The Nasdaq will fall by 25%.

The S&P 500 will fall by 10%.

However, mid year, all indexes will drop by half, setting up a 2nd half rally.

Cash rich Japanese stocks will outperform.

China’s economy will continue to weaken, hurt by the U.S. consumer.

3 big name retailers will file for bankruptcy protection.

Chrysler will be liquidated.

F and GM will merge.

iBankCoin’s popularity will grow much faster than anyone could have predicted.

iBankCoin will makes its first acquisition in 2009.

Finally, The PPT will be a huge success, much to the chagrin of all “The Fly’s” enemies.

NOTE: Here were my ’08 predictions.

NOTE II: Here are Danny’s predictions.

NOTE III: Here are Alpha’s predictions.

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Fuck this market and everything it represents. I have decided to make no big moves, for the rest of 2008 (unreal discipline, I know). As I discussed before, end of year tapes are riddled with assclowns who enjoy whipsawing each other out of field cannons. At the present, my cash position is about 50%. I will make a sincere effort to up it to 60%, early next week.

My top holdings are shorts in oil and banks. However, I respect the power of men in idiot boxes and will deploy capital to the long side, if needed.

One way or another, the market gets raped in January. The question is: will it happen right out of the gates or after Obama’s inauguration?

In the event that I am wrong and we go straight up, I am prepared to eat a healthy serving of humble pie and join the Fucktard Festival, dressed up as a CNBC anchor.

Bottom line: this shit is for the birds; I’m out of here.

Go ahead, you should buy oil, banks, retailers and other “early cycle plays.” You fuckers, with your low IQ’s and burlap pants, know more than the man in the fucking time machine. After all, you’ve proven me wrong throughout 2008—with your stellar stock picking skills. The market did great this year and POT is $300 per share, isn’t it?

Your lowly manners, coupled with non-existent Wall Street connections, make for a great day trader. Go get your fucking charts, grab that pencil and ruler, and get to drawing straight lines on that graph paper you received for Christmas.

While you’re busy predicting the future through technical analysis, “The Fly” will be reading his vast collection of Depression Era newspapers, for leisure of course. Oh, he’ll also be betting against the fucking snakes at XOM, RIG, LFC, KIM and VNO.

Finally, I will be selling all of my inverse etf’s by the 2nd week of January. They do not represent the underlying components effectively and should be banned by the SEC. They are assholish plays on swaps. I’ve had enough. As I said before, in 2009, “The Fly” will be going old school again, via taking direct bets against losers like KIM or RIG and most 3rd tier bloggers and less than worthwhile internet leeches, if I might be so bold as to say so.

Oil projects are at a standstill. Oil/Gas producers are now capping their wells, in order to cut costs, as demand dries up. And, despite your asshattish desire to have things the way they were yesterday, oil companies are in very dire straights.

The underlying commodity price has fallen off a cliff, down about 75% in 5 short months. Yet here you are, like a fucking imbecile, trying to pick a bottom in oil stocks.

Hello, asshole, many of them will go all the way to zero.

This cycle is especially brutal for oil companies for several reasons. Most important is the condition of the sectors balance sheet, which happens to be dreadful in many cases. Most companies levered up into the faux inflation run. They borrowed a shit load of money, thinking $100 oil was here to stay.

Guess again.

Much to the chagrin of our asshat bankers, oil companies will be defaulting on their loans, as soon as cash runs dry. Based upon recent price action in crude, that shit (see ya later fuckfaces) will begin to happen soon.

Aside from the obvious plays (short oil stocks), one might want to inquire about the dumb lenders in the oil/gas space. Just when you thought there were no more shoes, BAM, another one drops.

Realistically, oil/gas companies will have a very difficult time raising capital in the future, with the underlying commodities in the dumpster and widespread insolvency amongst our coolest banks.

The following companies have a negative net cash per share ratio, which basically means they have more debt than cash on their balance sheets aka “fucked.”

(stocks above $10 per share)

Screen #1

FST, DVN, CHK, LINE, SFY, EAC, PVA, CRZO, EPD, CWEI, NFX, CNQ, XTO, APC, HK, SNP, ATLS, EVEP, NBR, RIG, WLL, CXO, BBG, HP, EXH, BAS, GLF, CGV, SII, SPN, OIS, CLB, OII, EPE, PETD, TSO, MRO, VLO, SUN, PBR, ETE, EPE, E, REP and IOC.

Just in case you were wondering, the amount of debt taken on in this industry is in the 100’s of billions, fucking absurd. It is a ticking time bomb, ready to rip off the remaining leg of your local banker. CHK alone has more than $14 billion in long term debt. SNP, an example of pure Chinese fuckery, has close to $25 billion in long term and short term debt. In an effort to narrow down the list to a few names, the following stocks kept flashing warning signs in my numerous, and quite thorough, screens:

Screen #2

CHK, SNP, APC, CNQ, DVN, PBR, RIG, SII, NBR, ETE, VLO, EXH, WLL, E, REP, HK

And, finally, here are The PPT Hybrid Scores for the stocks in screen #2:

CHK: 2.57 Sell
SNP: 1.91 Strong Sell
APC: 2.61 Sell
CNQ:1.94 Strong Sell
DVN: 2.69 Sell
PBR: 2.7 Sell
RIG: 2.59 Sell
SII: 2.58 Sell
NBR: 2.03 Sell
ETE: 2.1 Sell
VLO: 2.53 Sell
EXH: 1.93 Strong Sell
WLL: 2.66 Sell
E: N/A
REP: 2.66 Sell
HK: 2.42 Sell

Now, before you go out and short all of the above names, remember that oil/gas stocks are the go to sector for asshole dip buyers, running around in florescent orange leotards. If you have a long term objective, without a doubt, many, if not most, of the above names will be significantly lower, due to sector deterioration.

NOTE: At the moment of this post, “The Fly” was short an egregious amount of RIG.

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Show some class you heathens. Santa Fly will leave some presents for you internet leeches, sometime tonight.

In the event that you may want to track Santa Claus, the kids will love this site.

As for me, well, I’ll be busy throwing egg nog on the balsam and dreaming of kicking people down moving escalators. The holidays are always fun for Plutonium Petey. The kids get spoiled, while the adults inebriate themselves, in a very jolly sort of way.

Traditionally, we eat seafood, which consists of crab, mussels, scallops, shrimp and lobster, in a fra diavolo sauce. It’s an Italian mafia tradition, which dates back to the fun filled days when Great Grandpa Fly had a strangle hold over NYC’s “street lenders,” up in old Harlem.

As far as I’m concerned, the market can go hump a horse. I have my gains (64%). But, incidentally, I am not too happy about them. I define myself by failures. I am never content and always mad as fuck over my miscues.

For example: I am still pissed off over my series of SMN debacles, from early ’08. And, let’s not forget, covering my POT short, in the high 100’s. I am 100% positive that taking a negative view of my success helps me, if you get my drift.

iBankcoin had a terrific year. We added some new bloggers. Traffic has been expanding exponentially, on a monthly basis. And, for the love of dog shit and skateboards, I think we did a pretty good job helping our reader base dodge some pretty serious potholes, unlike Howard.

If you are one of the many who had a bad year, don’t let it ruin your holiday. Remember, when it’s all said and done, we’re all going to be plumbers anyway, once Barack the Builder begins remodeling America.

Chill out. Go drink some spiked egg nog, kiss the kids and be thankful that Godly folks, like the bloggers of iBankcoin, are still around speaking the truth for all of the internet to see and hear.

UPDATE: Pleasant holiday read. Short TM and HMC, with impunity.

UPDATE II: Epic Don Harrold vid.

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The trend is broken. However, who knows what the Obama lovers will do come JANUARY 1st—also known as the magical day when everything changes.

You assholes are so quick to give the economy the benefit of the doubt, it’s sickening. I want to spit on you, from a 100 yard distance.

At the bell, the following bear positions are somewhat prominent in “The Fly’s” portfolio:

FAZ, SMN, SRS, ERY, DUG, short XOM, short LFC, short VNO and short RIG.

Here are some longs:

ABX, C, GE, UNH and PFE

Without being too long winded and wasting more of my valuable time, I think having a bearish bias into the end of 2008 is the way to go. Too many cocksuckers are out and about trying to “take on more risk,” due to the Fed’s actions. They will be wrong, as always.

Unlike 2000-2003, there is not the vast amount of retail chains, in nascent/high growth stages, to fill vacancies. Back then, there was SBUX, BWLD, GME, PNRA, CMG, and many others, gobbling up available space, effectively bailing out commercial Re. Also, there were banks opening up branches on every corner, like fucking crack spots.

Ask yourself a question: Who will fill the vacancies at the strip malls and tall office buildings, after liquidations are completed and corporations slash their head count and/or close up shop?

Idiot tankers were waiting in the middle of the ocean for the January crude contract to expire, so that they could sell their oil at the much high February prices. Much to their chagrin, everyone was doing this. As a result, oil cannot get traction here.

I suspect there is a lot of panic selling taking place, with the physical owners of crude—who have been crushed into one thousand pieces of dust.

To see strength in refiners is equally fucktarded, since their margins are compressed to nothing, sans diesel and jet fuel (how long will that last?). People are assuming crude will trade up, effectively enriching the refiners (VLO, WNR, SUN, TSO) with lots of fiat currency.

But you fuckers are just guessing, aren’t you?

Question:

Why do you think oil should trade higher than where it was in 2002-2003?

Oil is down from $140 to $40 in 5 quick months. The ramifications of this “homo hammer” has not been reflected in the underlying securities, in my opinion. There will be bankruptcies and rumors of bankruptcies.

Men who work in tar sands will be fired and told to go fuck themselves. The jackass who locked in $500,000 per month rig rates will be castrated and fed to a pride of lions.

I suspect the chickens will be coming home to roost, very early, in 2009.

Trade accordingly.

NOTE: I am long ERY, DUG, short XOM and short RIG.