Diary of a Villain

I can’t wait for the markets to crash. I dream of crashes and accidents, generally people losing all of their money and dying from starvation. I just can’t accept the fact that other people have made money, on the long side, these past 3 years. The market was supposed to go straight to zero in 2009, until those crooks at the Fed bailed everyone out and made things better again.

I remember when my neighbor told me how his 401k was so low he couldn’t retire. That made me happy. But after the fucking Fed and “The Bearded Clam” did QE, sending the markets up again, he was able to retire and move down to Florida. WTF? Much to my surprise, instead of losing his house in foreclosure, he was able to sell it at a profit! I bet he has tons of credit card debt, lol.

We all know the US is next. We are Greece, but in 2,3 maybe 10 years. The Chinese are taking over everything and all we have left are fucking golf courses and banksters. I bet the bastards from JPM will give themselves some pretty fat bonuses this year.

That’s alright. The Germans will make everything right, again. They are the only ones who get it. Every single country in the world is wrong, EXCEPT Germany. They will not let the socialists in France dictate policy and they will force austerity on the European people, especially Greece. The good times are over. It’ time to hunker down and get your priorities in line. Most of the people I know just want to kick the can down the road. I believe it’s better to deal with the root issue now than have my grandchildren do it. If you don’t have the money, don’t spend it!

It’s gonna be bad for awhile, maybe 5 to 10 years. Unemployment will hit Great Depression levels and the market will be smoked. Most banks will trade down to zero and most pension funds will have to break contract. But, finally, I WILL BE PROVEN RIGHT. And, to top it off, I may make some money in the process, through my short positions.

Some of you newer investors look at the market and wonder why it’s going lower, so dramatically. The answer is very simple: monetary policy is wrong, especially in Europe. At the present, nominal GDP in Europe is contracting, as well as employment, asset prices and sentiment. There is capital destruction on a historical scale, yet the ECB feels it is appropriate to keep rates at 1%.

Europe is heading towards depression, brought on by massive deflation.

When deflation hits, prices drop, bonds and safe haven currencies soar. Look around you. How’s everything but oil? What is TLT, UUP and German bunds doing? Last I checked, German 2 yr yielded 0.0%, yet demand is at an all-time high.

If the Fed and the ECB allow the deflationary vortex to take hold, you will see a frightening economy. It will be full retard to the downside trading action. I am talking about 300-500 points at a clip, until we settle at around Dow 5,000. Many of you are still fighting inflation. You’ve been so brainwashed by people like Peter Schiff and others that you sincerely believe the dollar is going to zero and we are heading down the path of Zimbabwe.

You’re delusional.

All of the money that has been printed has been absorbed into the system and is being destroyed. Money supply is falling and we need more stimulus. We have no choice but to ease, quantitatively, until asset prices cause a ripple effect towards a path to economic prosperity.

What is the alternative? Would you rather take a dog-brained approach to this and get austere, like Europe, cutting spending into the fucking ground? Look at what is going on there! They are cutting spending as GDP falls. Then GDP falls some more, leading to even more cuts. It’s a never-ending loop to oblivion.

This is fact: Germany needs to be removed from the European Union. The EU doesn’t need those fucking barbarians. Without Germany they can issue Euro-bonds and save the fucking continent. With German austerity, bank runs, riots, soaring unemployment, global crisis and depression will be the end result.

Once Germany is removed from the EU, the mark will explode, fucking German exports, leading to a win for the allied powers, yet again.

Fuck Germany.

I’m going to keep my thoughts focused here.

I am incredibly glum and regret, very deeply, buying into this headfake. My choices were made out of hubris and desire, instead of logic.

Here are the headwinds:

The Facebook ipo is a disaster. Moreover, it’s an ongoing disaster that will likely get worse.

Morgan Stanley is viewed in a negative light because of Facebook. Due to the 25% allotment to retail in the offering, main street is pissed the fuck off and sentiment for the market has plunged, literally because of the Facebook offering.

Our best bank, JPM, is one giant question mark. They fucked up and no one knows the true damage.

Europe is more of a mess now than ever before. After tanking last year due to Greece, until a bailout was reached, everything has been undone with one simple election.

Aside from Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy hang in the balance.

The basic resource sector, once the best way to play reflation, has been ravaged beyond repair.

Our largest producer of natural gas provider, CHK, has a degenerate gambler as a CEO, who was running a fucking hedge fund on the side, as his stock price tanked.

For the most part, all high flying tech stocks have corrected, some very severely.

Our employment data is not improving fast enough.

A giant tax hike looms for us in 2013, if they are not extended before the end of 2012.

The global debt bubble is getting bigger and bigger and bigger and will pop one day–but no one knows when.

Go away in May

Here are the tailwinds:

Apple.

Ben.

When Obama ran for President, he told us that oil was stupid. He promised to diversify us away from oil, in favour of grandiose alternative energies, like “clean coal”, natural gas, wind, nuclear, solar–even biofuels!

The ultimate barometer of the health of any business is its share price. Wouldn’t you agreed? Indeud.

Let us have a look at some returns of alternative energy names, over the past 3 years.

How’s the fucking solar sector doing?

Eek, that sucks.

Maybe the coal and nuclear sectors are doing better?

How about natural gas?

Ouch, that fucking sucks too.

I know. I bet biofuels have done well.

Unreal.

Just for fun, let’s have a look at oil.

Odd no?

In just three years, for whatever set of circumstances, Obama has accomplished what Cheney, and his evil band of Halliburton bloodsuckers, could have only dreamt of accomplishing in a lifetime. He has eliminated ALL competitors for big oil. Back in the Bush days, when he was out and about war mongering for oil, causing havoc and shit, there was a myriad of new players threatening to compete with big oil. Lo and behold, Mr. Super Fucking Liberal aka “The O”, hater of the fossil fuel, savior of the planet, has done nothing but foster a healthy environment for big oil, while creating circumstances to fucking poleax and demolish anyone who dared to threaten them.

The beauty of this decapitation is the fact it has gone entirely unreported by the propagandist main stream media, who are too busy sucking his dick, than to take a step back to see what is going on.

Long live big oil.

If I told you I was humbled by today’s trading action, I’d be lying to you. There are many things that make up “The Fly.” Lying is not one of them.

Today I took razor blades to the fucking face. No, I was not fucking humbled, slumped over like some schlep in a museum. I WAS FUCKING CRUMBLED. I was taken from my seat and compressed like a fucking accordion. I WAS FUCKING FACEBOOK’d god-damn it. My great big, bountiful, chestful of pride, position in social media company YELP was urinated on. It was shit upon by apes dressed in astronaut gear.

All of today’s buys were decimated. The Goldman upgrade of MTW was wasted, as it barely went up today. MY TEX buy ended up for shit. My NXPI buy, for shit. But my TDC buy held its own, due to the non-degeneracy of the stock. The old man stocks held their ground and my bold calls in silver were humiliated in front of billions of gawkers.

Hell, even my small Facebook purchase was absolutely clown raped.

I don’t mean to be this volatile and I certainly do not enjoy having to eat my words just a few short hours after posting some ridiculous prediction: but this market is HORSESHIT. It’s made from lose. Every single sector is under fire. The coal, solar, natty, wind and nuclear sectors are going to be washed away in the sands of time. There is going to be capital destruction like you cannot imagine, UNLESS things turn around NOW.

How much exposure do the banks have in the coal space? I imagine a great deal of money.

Perhaps we snap back tomorrow. Maybe my YELP will show some resiliency; but I doubt it. I cannot think of a worser case scenario, a more anti-climatic one, than what happened to me today. The proverbial winds were taken right out my sails and the knife of stupidity is twisting in my stomach.

Oh, by the way, the fucking market closed flat for the day.

Intra-day, the market is in danger of giving it all back and diving lower, typical of recent trading action. Europe enjoyed a grande old day and we’re on the verge of getting “ghetto jabbed” in the fucking face with a knife.

FB has certainly poisoned the well and now AAPL is about to go negative, after being up 10.

Couple that with the fact that a once booming coal industry is about to go belly up, with the direct help of the Obama administration and the EPA; America stands to lose a lot of jobs if that happens. I will be discussing “the oil man” Obama later on, and how he has managed to destroy every form of energy but oil in 3 fucking years of idiocy.

I am not retreating from my “BIGGEST FUCKING RALLY OF YOUR PATHETIC LIVES” call. However, I am worried about the tea leaves, at least on an intra-day basis. Either way, this bitch needs to giddy up now and quit dicking around. On the bright side, financials are strong and the FAZmobile is getting hit with anvils, with only a windshield wiper as protection.

The wall of worry is very high. As a matter of fact, the iBC news section is outstripping my blog in traffic, over the past two weeks, something that has never happened before. You macabres love this shit. You want it all to burn down, starting with FB and JPM, ending with a fucked up Zombie Jobs AAPL crumbling into the Pacific.

Guess what?

You’re a fucking idiot.

We have central banks printing money; what do you have?

Oh, you have debt and Greece?

Well, we have assassins and Euro-bonds–coming soon to a homosexual euroland near you.

Big Ben “The Bearded Clam” Bernanke is on his way (no Santa), blunt in hand, ready to get you bitches. The P in POMO stands for permanent. Get it? Good.

To play this spike, and salvage my fucking year, I am bulking the fuck up on splattered China plays, like MTW and TEX. I added to NXPI for semi exposure and bought back TDC because it never trades down. Plus they had a blow out quarter and came back to my original sale point. I like owning names that have recently smashed earnings, down only because of the market.

Finally, there is YELP. What can I say, other than I have the patience of a camel.

UPDATE: Here is my current roster of positions, subject to change of course. All updated in real time inside of The PPT.

There is weakness permeating the tape thanks to bankruptcy rumors regarding PCX. The commodity sector is selling off. Regardless, I like the Goldman upgrade of MTW today, especially since I own it. But if they like MTW, they have to love TEX down here.

With the WNR proceeds and some of my cash reserves, I bought TEX, NXPI, TDC and initiated a very small position in FB.

With regards to FB: I will not buy more unless it trades down to $28.

Why did I buy it?

Two reasons:

Eventually the post ipo carnage will cease and it will bounce. Also, I find it humorous to own it 5+ points below its ipo price. Blame it on vanity.

I sold out of WNR, near the highs.

Apple versus Facebook.

Apple wins.

Facebook is being marginalized and ignored by the overall market and more importantly, the social media space. I added to my fucking gigantic YELP position, not because I think it is going higher. Instead, I know it is.

My MTW caught a Goldman upgrade this morning, citing the stock being cheap as balls. Thus far, I am up around 0.75% for the session, eagerly waiting for YELP to reverse and go higher.

In general, the market looks like it wants to run. If you are looking for names, consider silver, as it correlates tightly with the SPY off bounces, with vigor and leverage. After silver, you will want to target tech names, specifically semis and networkers. Names like CIEN, RVBD, SNDK and even AAPL are of great interest to me. You cannot let this bounce escape you, for we may not get an oversold condition like this for the remainder of 2012 (although I doubt that). Nevertheless, the future has not been written yet and for all we know, Greece will be saved (again), Romney will gain traction in the polls and the economy will accelerate to the upside.

With my money, I am actively seeking to position in oversold names with large short positions.

More on that later.