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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

FEAR THE BOOT

I want to clarify and crystallize some things for some of the newer readers of iBankCoin. I do not concern myself, whatsoever, with technical analysis. I do not believe in it, never have, never will. I manage a great deal of money, on behalf of very wealthy individuals. I do not consider my personal money to be “risk assets” and only play with a small portion of my net worth, which, incidentally, is likely 10x the size of your bullshit zeeco accounts.

Before I buy a stock, I make a decision as to the longevity of the trade and the amount of risk I am willing to accept. In same cases, I am only interested in 5-10%, upside or downside, in others I go for much more. I use algorithms to find “high probability” trades. But you must understand, it isn’t the holy grail. NOTHING is fool proof. Hence, the very term “high probability” suggests an outside chance that the trade could go wrong.

For example: I bought EXK a few days ago, thinking the stock had bottomed and was readying to bounce. However, when I saw the stock fail to move up, I knew there was something wrong with silver. Instead of cutting my losses, I made a conscious decision to buy more if my position got to -10%. The reason why I did that was because I had 40% cash and could afford to accept some risk. Plus anyway, I really like EXK down here. I’ve traded the stock over a dozen times and have never lost money in it.

Although I boast about the abilities of The PPT: NOTHING is full proof. It is a tool, a great tool, that allows me to not waste time. I didn’t build it for retail usage. I built it for my personal use only, then we opened it up to the public later on.

Some of you manage money and understand what I am talking about. However, the fucking lot of you are simply ignorant to my methods and would be better off sticking your dicks in a lions mouth than fucking with me.

I am generous and I am here to share ideas. But do not think for a second that you know more than me. Plainly, it’s laughable that you would presume to know anything at all. Hell, I bet half of you got to work this morning by being pushed inside of a shopping cart, or by way of skateboard.

Look, I don’t mean to be curt. I am really a very “nice guy”; and for the most part, my “battles”, whether real or “imaginative”, are yours. Having said that, I will track you down and punch your lips loose for getting in my way, even if it’s some small gratuitous comment– left in some half-drunken stupor. Data is being collected and the good folks at iBC are growing very rapidly, under the auspices of the Grande Recursive Order of the Knights of the Lambda Calculus.

You’ve been warned, YET AGAIN.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnOmOsQkyKE&feature=related

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Give Up Yet?

You can’t stop this market. You can only hope to contain it.

I averaged down in my EXK and lost less than 0.5% for the day.

Indeud.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2HOQb92Iu0 603 500]

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My Generosity Has Been Renewed

I am losing some money today, but nothing to lament over. Losses are part of this business. If you can’t take 2% down days, then you’re in the wrong business.

I’ve got my eyes fixed on EXK, as it plunges to lower levels. Apparently, silver and gold isn’t so cool after all and Peter Schiff is bardus.

My new position in MOS is holding up. I like it for July seasonality. The stats are compelling and the fundies in ag are getting better. YELP, NXPI, CPST and ALK make up the majority of my long positions. I have others, all listed inside of The PPT. But, make no mistake, my fate depends on the supply/demand metrics of the above stocks.

What are you doing? Are you buying this dip?

I only bought a little yesterday because it makes no sense to trade ahead of a euro-summit. They are impotent men (no viagra), unable to convince Queen Merkel to cease destroying the continent of europe. Let’s not hold punches here, Germany is committing war, of the financial sort, on its neighbors.

Starting right now, I’ve decided to cease all bannings on iBC. We’ve banned over 1,000 readers since inception, for the sole purpose of discarding undesirables. However, I feel like a fight. Try your worst and I’ll be sure to humiliate you in short order.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Sn6u5YPfZA

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Waiting For Europe to Save Itself

How long do you think I’ll be waiting?

I am not going to waste time, dreaming about fictional scenarios. The Europeans need to “save” themselves, but they’re too scared or stupid to do it. The market is supposed to be a lot lower, but it’s resilient. Although today’s sell off is “sad” :(–I really don’t give a fuck because 35% of my assets are in cash.

I will buy when TLT stops going higher. I will buy, in earnest, when money flees safe havens in exchange for riskier assets. I will not buy ahead of suchness. Instead, I will wait until it happens, then choose my spots carefully.

My current roster of positions is just fine and doesn’t require tweaking. I’ve decided to stick with a few names and average in, if needed. Therefore, there isn’t much to talk about, is there? You may scurry along, playing with fire-bombs and FAZmobiles, things of that nature. I don’t short sell markets that refuse to go lower or that bore me.

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BEND THE KNEE

You have been disciplined and dispatched.

Shame on you for misjudging the tape. From hereon-forth, all parties who were profligate with their stock market suggestions, over the past month, will be banished from the great halls of iBC.

I stand before you, towering with a magnanimous shadow, drinking wine from a human skull– but in no way content. Like a vampire on the prowl, I endeavor to sap the coin from your brokerage accounts and transfer it into my own. YOU WERE WRONG ON YELP, just like you’ve been wrong about your entire life.

I do not win due to luck, but design.

What you are witnessing now is normalcy for me. I can’t help but to win, in largess manner, with all of the pomp and grandeur that someone in my position might expect. I beg of you: bet against me. See what happens.

We are going higher, much to your chagrin (feel free to digress!), and I am now up 17.5% for the year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4A29uG0KBc

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I Don’t Short Dull Markets

Based upon the laws of mathematics, the market is going higher, at least in the interim. Members of the illustrious PPT have been alerted to oversold conditions in both TNA and SPY and know, full well, we are due for a bounce. Whether this bounce is caused by news or rumor is immaterial to me. What is important to note is nature of the market, tethered by certain rules, invisible to the common eye.

A great many of you think you know things because you look at trends lines or have done rigorous research into the shadow banking system. The truth is: you are amateurs. Try doing this for more than a decade, successfully, then get back to me, pal.

Instead of reading this shit, wasting time on the computer, you fuckers should be cold calling. Do it with a smile. I hear the smile can be picked up over the phone, whilst closing someone for 1,000 shares of FB.

EXK is down again; but silver is somewhat stable. This is what I expected, after seeing yesterday’s dump-out. I am down 6.8% from my initial basis. As planned, I will double down at -10%.

To be honest, I don’t want to put anymore money to work here, ahead of the EU summit. Those people suck. I will gladly accept some easy fought gains, with a light allocation, than have to sweat out some currency crisis, depending on the caprices of Queen Merkel.

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A Few Names Worth Your Attention

My heart says we go lower. But my calculator brain says, statistically, we are going to melt up to the tune of +4% over the next 5 days. Having said that, here is my short list of names that will participate in any melt-up.

TEX
MTW
ROSE
USG
BIDU
EXK
NXPI

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Yahoo Finance is the Shit-Heap of Finance

I am about 40% cash, following today’s sale of HDGE. It was a small profit, nothing to write home to mom about, but a profit nonetheless. Breaking with tradition, I intend to drink some wine tonight, in celebration of a job well done, with regards to the market. It’s important to celebrate success and to lament failure. Subconsciously, it will drive you towards competence (no Pavlov).

My ALK position is approaching 10% of assets and YELP is now upwards of 32%. The higher the stock goes, the greater the weighting. There was amateur hit piece on YELP, published on SeekingAlpha yesterday, which was distributed by Yahoo finance (shame on them). The owner of the site reached out to me on Twitter last night.

Have a look at the conversation.






I am not mad at the person who penned the YELP hit piece. We all have opinions, and for the most part, they should be shared for the sake of documenting intellectual theory. But, I believe widely visited sites and media outlets have a responsibility to vet out garbage; because bad information is often pawned off as “news” and misinterpreted by people who are too lazy to conduct their own research. As you can see, the owner of the website belittled Yahoo Finance, yet YF is by far the most dominant website in finance. It is a sign of piercing disrespect for Yahoo finance. Since they do not respect their brand enough to vet out “interns” and short selling con-artists, who use their site to manipulate stocks lower for the explicit purposes of profit, the “interns” and con-artists treat Yahoo as they deserve to be treated: like shit.

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