Closed the Week Pinned to RECOURD Highs

Sirs–

The Nasdaq shed more than 1% this week and losses were FESTOONED across the landscape.

I closed the week with gains of 1.5%, in spite of drawing down 120bps the past two days. It all gets so tiresome and monotonous. I will come back with a full chest of courage next week and propel myself to even higher record highs.

My opinion for cryptos heading into the weekend is for a sell off, consolidating the recent gains, before the ultimate sojourn to $100,000

Small caps are beating the large caps for a change, with a flat Russell and down 180 NASDAQ. Underneath the hood you can clearly see rotation underway, from tech to basic materials — but it isn’t a bold move. This type of move is largely unimportant on a slow Friday afternoon.

Even stil, I managed to escape the wrath of the market, preserving my account from losses — now sitting +10bps. I don’t feel easy with a portfolio filled with basic materials, which is the point. Most people miss out on rotations because no one wants to sell what is working in favor for some laggards. It takes time and foresight to truly capture a revolving move.

Is it happenng?

IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN, but I am open to the idea.

I do not have anxiety. My pink levels are very low, since my health is most excellent and my demeanor is both poised and collected.

I’m sort of content where I am now, not trying to rock the boat and make a FOOL out of myself in a marker rife with tumult. With +1.75% for the week, I have no reason to be a hero ahead of the weekend, a weekend which is marked with one of my favorite holidays: St. Paddy’s day. It is a day when I inebriate myself amidst boiled meats, potatoes, and cabbage — sing the songs of Ireland and perhaps smoke a cigar.

It should be noted, I do not condone recreational drinking, especially for young men trying to find their station in life. But on occasion, it is acceptable, providing you’re not an idiot who gets hooked on vices.

I closed the session down 90bps, heavily leaning into oil stocks — 45% cash. I was tempted to long $BITX and other higher beta stocks down 10% today. HOWEVER, even though the market rallied into the close — high beta risky stocks lost 3.8% for the session and the VIX spiked. Whilst this is usually a head fake, as the market seems to always trade up — this time it is accompanied by a mega spike in rates. It is possible you are staring down the barrel of a loaded shot gun at the present and might find yourselves entreated to morning grape shot to your fucking face — wiping that smug grin CLEAN of your odious face.

Ciao.

Yes.

Seasonal trends command my attention. We have Brent above $85 — wars looming all over the place, and Joe Fucking Biden mucking everything up. I read the fucking Houthis of all people took possession hypersonic missiles. If true, spot rates for tankers are about to explode higher. I think it’s fair to say, given the recent run in tech, a rotation into basic materials would be welcomed by all — especially since it is by far the most undervalued segment of the market.

I’m already in but will accentuate my basic material holdings before the bell.

I stepped aside on $BITX because I don’t like the $BTC action today, as the major cryptos give way to some of th alts. It looks like $BTC might come in a little here.

I also stepped aside in most of my positions in trading, save a few, now resting with 75% cash and losses of 39bps. On down days I aim to limit the losses and try again later. This I will do and perhaps we’ll be saved later on by a 20 candle in a row buying spree.

I did have a hedge but I closed it out for quick gains. I’ll endure some further drawdowns before deciding to short the market again.

We are seeing nominal rotation today, out of MAG7 stocks and into commodity related names — off the back of sharply higher WTI. We also continue to see vagrant degenerate piece of shit stocks buoyant in a sea of refuse. I’d argue this market should be sold — but I’d probably be wrong. I hate proffering bad or ill timed advice.

No, we are betwixt a mania of many sorts: geopolitically, nationally, commodity, real estate, currency, and equities. The wild eyed shift out of dollars and into Bitcoin/other cryptos speaks to a narrative of risk. Markets do not top at the highs, as stupid as that might sound. Before an eventually move lower, we’ll get some distribution and some truly volatile sessions marked by and accentuated with fear. There isn’t any fear in this tape — just a lot of odious kids running about telling you to “choose rich.”

When to sell?

This is never an easy answer but if you need structure — base your sales off allocation percentages. If your allocation in a stock is 5% and it doubled in price and is now 9 or 10%, sell it down to 5% again.

Overall models that are for long term should abide by similar allocation models and cash levels should not be higher than 10% with stocks at RECORD HIGHS. You will never time the top so stop trying.

As for my trading — another RECOURD high +111bps, stacked with 33% cash and a 12% $BITX position — eagerly awaiting a late night adventure higher for Bitcoin. I’m off to a very good start for 2024, +14%. Do not feel envy or look at me with any varying degrees of animosity or animus — for my talents in the stock market are meaningless fribble and pose as nothing but a reminder that trading stocks is an absurd avocation and an even more absurd career path. NEVERTHELESS, I beat on, backs against the current.

In an effort to be transparent about my crypto holdings, I’ll disclose some brief thoughts.

I’m not really a fan of alt-coins but believe they will go higher due to the wave of bullishness in the space now. I do believe $BTC will rest at $75k, en route to $100k. Humans love to fixate on big round numbers. I own $BTC from $26,000s.

I also own $BITX (2x $BTC) in stock accounts.

The only other crypto that I own is Solana and I will keep buying it every month for the balance of 2024. I own it from the $60s and then high $120s and would buy here. I have it staked at $COIN for 5.01% APY.

I know many people hate cryptos and will never buy it and I’m not here to convince you otherwise, but to remind you that it is an asset, just like anything else. I am certain people loved Lehman and Bear before they collapsed to zero and I am sure many a scam stock rode waves in the past making people millions of dollars before ultimate demise. I used to harbor deep hatred for asset classes I was unfamiliar with, which is a form of cope for either missing out or some form of latent jealousy. We have one life to live and within that life we can ruin it in may different ways, chiefly by way of financial collapse.

I try my best and I never risk too much and hope that my instincts and choices lead to success.

Am I entitled to pace up and down the internet, wielding my returns at you — boasting about how great of a trader I am — how you’re all lucky to have access to a person, such as myself?

The answer is YES, without a doubt.

The NASDAQ is +7.8% for 2024. What am I up? Let’s take a look, or a gander, if you will.

My trading is up nearly 14%, the once per month traded Quant is +8.6% and the hardly ever trade Strategic account of my best long term ideas is up more than 10%. That means you all have to shut the fuck up — plain and simple. I don’t want to see your returns. Stick them up your ass. This is about me, so stop trying to make it about you. If you wanted to boast about your returns, I suggest started a blog or an account on X and find out how many people give a shit about them. Probably zero.

I’m 88% cash now, just two silly piece of shit positions on the books now and I have things to do, so I will likely not press any big exposure till late afternoon.

I often think about the topic of the stock market versus the very obvious decay in the west, specifically America. The macro analysis would suggest degradation amidst the populous, lawlessness, Neo-liberal ideologies run amok, oppression, and a want regard for the value of life both here and abroad.

For anyone “normal” or conservative, the cultural landscape of present day Americana is shockingly depraved, steeped heavily in degeneracy — celebrated and controlled by mentally ill people.

But taking a step back from that, and perhaps this is me trying to cope with RECORD HIGHS in the stock market — do these conditions warrant immediate decay in GDP and stock valuations?

After all, the merchant selling widgets prospers when more customers enter his store. Ergo, the greater the populace, at least for a time, the greater the profit. Eventually it will end with social discord being so untenable it will fracture and collapse — resolved only by violence and conquer.

What our esteemed leaders have figured out after 2008 is that they can print as much money as they wanted because the demand for Euros and Dollars was infinite, since 3rd world populations were steaming higher and all of their currencies were shit. In other words, the infinite money hack deployed by Central Banksters is without consequence — up until the point when confidence is shattered and/or an alternative takes root.

The more people entering the west, the more customers and that’s all they really care about, with the added bonus of replacing and diluting the revolutionary spirit of those native to those lands. This is a cursory and over simplistic view of the present landscape to explain stock prices — but on a geopolitical plane it doesn’t hold up and the rationale isn’t motivated by money — but power and spite.

Yesterday I was hoping the semis would CRACK lower, helping usher in the apocalypse and all would be lost in ruin. Instead, the $SMH is +2% and things are looking just fine. I took advantage of the fine southern weather down here nd took most of the day off — sipping on some sweet tea like a fat piece of shit.

I re-entered the arena bogged down 70bps, mostly due to $BITX knifing lower. So I doubled down at the bottom and traded a few other things and PRESTO, just like that, I stand before you +15bps.

It gets boring, gaming the stock market is easy — especially when the trends are accommodating. I keep waiting for discord and a malevolent tape — but she never comes.