We are at the point of the sell off where I get nervous, as we overextend into deeply oversold territory. Historically, miracles occur when we are oversold, whether it be a policy statement, a well timed news article, or even a CNBC rumor.
THEY do not want to destroy the real estate and tech markets. They are not happy with the recent series of events and will try to make things right.
The reason why the Fed is hiking so fast is because they’re in a rush and want to get back to hedonistic ballroom dances amidst clouds of cocaine and excess.
But we have a real problem and Russia is forever a thorn in their side. The only way to really stop Russia is to beat them militarily. Whilst I’m sure we can hold our own against them, at what cost? Two aircraft carriers, 500 jets, 30,000 dead soldiers? I’d venture the people wouldn’t tolerate it, as we are sick of their wars.
Ergo, here we are in a proxy war, waiting for something awesome and amazing to happen. But we have currency issues, and inflation doesn’t seem to want to go away.
Our best hope is for a Fed pause. But they need inflation to go away. A Fed pause would only make things worse and they know it.
So we wait and we suffer through an interminable market.
I’m 100% cash, up 8bps for the session.
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Ms Pelosi’s AMGN’s doing well.
Today’s Pelosi plays: long AMGN, short TSM