CHOPPED UP AND SPIT OUT

I almost don’t want to do this blog. Let me review what happened.

First headlines, in order from morning until recent.

DONETSK BEING EVACUATED OF CIVILIANS

The US has obtained intelligence suggesting that Russia’s claim of pulling back forces earlier this week was deliberate disinformation designed to make the West think they were de escalating while moving more forces toward the border – CNN

Russian President Putin says sees ‘deterioration of situation’ in eastern Ukraine:

PUTIN ORDERS EMERGENCIES MINISTER TO GO TO ROSTOV REGION ON BORDER WITH UKRAINE – IFAX

PUTIN ORDERS MINISTER TO ORGANISE SHELTER FOR RESIDENTS FROM DONBASS – RIA

RUSSIA’S RIA NEWS AGENCY REPORTS LARGE EXPLOSION IN THE CENTRE OF SEPARATIST-HELD CITY OF DONETSK IN EAST UKRAINE

DPR and LPR leadership have refused Kiev’s offer to hold an extra session of the Trilateral Contact Group: Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE – RT

Men from 18 to 55 years old banned from leaving the territories controlled by the LPR and DPR.

169,000-190,000 Russian troops in and near Ukraine compared with around 100,000 on Jan. 30, U.S. envoy to OSCE says. “This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.”

SEPARATISTS IN SELF-PROCLAIMED DONETSK REPUBLIC IN EAST UKRAINE: WE INTEND TO EVACUATE APPROXIMATELY 700,000 PEOPLE TO RUSSIA.

U.S. OFFICIALS WARN OF IMMINENT RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE WITH TANKS, FIGHTER JETS, CYBER: DJ

RUSSIAN COMMUNIST PARTY LEADER ZYUGANOV: PUTIN WILL ANNOUNCE AN IMPORTANT DECISION ON DONBAS ON FEBRUARY 20

Head of LPR says “I call every male person able to carry arms, to take arms”

PUTIN CALLS FOR MILITARY RESERVE FORCES TO UNDERGO TRAINING WITH A DECREE TONIGHT – DOCUMENT RELEASED BY THE UKRANIAN MEDIA

SENIOR US ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: PUTIN’S DECISION TO OVERSEE NUCLEAR DRILLS ON SATURDAY IS AN ESCALATORY STEP

SIR —

Why did you buy stocks?

I entered the session in perfect form — closed em all out by 9:45 +40bps and feeling fine. Then the market started to rally. You fucking saw it. Stocks like AFRM were ramping and I got hooked first early and did ok — took small gains out into what was a much larger rally than I expected. As it kept lurking and my losses increasing due to my UVXY and SQQQ positions, I added beta and it got fucking HAMMERED when markets finally reversed lower. Instead of what would’ve been a fine day, up between maybe 30-50bps, I closed DOWN 108bps, off by 5.5% for the week. There is no excuse for this, as I broke every trading rule known to mankind. I was just looking, I was just looking, for a small window of opportune, Sir. I did not mean to do it — but I did. And now I closed the day hating the market and hating all of you, even though I don’t know you. I hate it all and I need to stop this shit because, well, it’s gonna kill me.

Back to my worldview.

Of course it makes no sense to fucking rally into WW3. I don’t even want to debate something that hasn’t happened. I don’t disagree with anyone’s ideas if they are rooted in logic. My logic is this: Russia is flooding markets with oil ahead of sanctions. Russia is gearing up for what seems to be a much larger war than just Ukraine. Why are they calling up reserves? That’s millions of men. In all, I don’t know. It’s funny — because it’s so fucking stupid and I hate this era with all of my guts.

Nevertheless, I am -1.4% YTD and I am better than that. BTW: If you think I am just full of myself I am not. I’m not very good at many things. I can’t even fix a car. But I can trade and make macro calls and I have always managed to trade my way out of messes.

I am long treasuries, volatility, short NASDAQ, long oils, coal, and for fuck’s sake SHOP and NVDA, 23% cash. I win when cannon fire erupts from the Black Sea.

Yeah have a good fucking weekend too. Hopefully we’re all alive by Tuesday.

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