The news from Ukraine is getting grimmer by the minutes. Separatists are refusing to negotiate with the Ukraine govt unless concrete proposals are on the table. Evacuations of as much as 700,000 people are underway. Putin will give a speech on Sunday regarding what to do with Donbas. Biden is talking at 4pm. As the moment, there is artillery fire underway in Eastern Ukraine and the situation only seems to be escalating.
At the same time, both natty and oil are stable, nothing in their prices suggests a supply shock. Is this Russia dumping crude on the market in lieu of sanctions to come? No idea. Numerous stocks from many industries are rallying off the lows and gaining momentum and it begs the question: Is the market taking this threat seriously?
Another one: Do you want to be long into the weekend with this threat looming?
The answer is probably in the middle somewhere. On one hand, any non WW3 news might stoke stocks and propel a fierce rally. On the other, the based on current trends, it seems those fucks are heading for war. Aside from Putin’s words, is there any evidence to the contrary? I believe there are as much as 190,000 Russian soldiers at or near the border.
At any rate, I’ve seen crazier shit happen and rallies occur in the depths of the worst economic news known to mankind, so it’s anyone’s guess what stocks do on a day by day basis, let alone intraday.
At 2:20pm the market is rallying. Do you think we run to the close and end green in what could potentially be catastrophic news, geopolitically?
Let’s see.
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War can be avoided if all parties truly want to avoid it.
I don’t think that’s the case here.
There’s at least one party involved that wants to see war break out and there’s no negotiating it away.
Whether it happens this weekend…who knows but I’d say the odds lean more toward cash or short positioning than long given the present circumstances.
Plot twist: Putin’s traders have been selling crude and gold futures to lock in the gains till he decides to end the drama. Working out quite alright for him.
When the Cuban Missile Crisis was on going, the market actually crashed daily. Look that up.
This is not a crash. Most traders know all along this is a pointless charade.
What traders ever bet thinking they are wrong?
This is a probability business, after all. Now the odds favor Putin taking a rational approach out of this stampede.
Is it not enough for these assholes that millions died from Covid? Now they want to kill a few millions more with bombs.