I took the morning to think tank different scenarios and came up with a conclusive portfolio that should survive the pangs of nuclear destruction and/or a small and minor conflagration in the Ukraine. I have ceded my desire to buy “cheap SAAS” stocks in favor of military industrial complex scum, long bets on gold and commodities — rare earths and gold. I am a Merchant of Death now and it should amuse you to know — Mrs. Fly has in fact ordered a portrait of me dressed in Russian military attire.
The black dirt of the Ukraine will freeze over in a fortnight and UK’s defense sec will ferry her way to Moscow by Thursday, just ahead of the invasion to come.
From what I could gather vis a vie my intelligence network (Twitter), Russian forces have moved quickly to staging areas and personnel are now filling in to man all of that equipment that had been moved the past month. It is inevitable now and just a matter of time before war settles into the common narratives of the market and people get accustomed to all of the trimmings that come with it.
Energy crisis, supply chain disruptions, FX upheaval, Treasury havens and much much more.
Will stocks collapse on this news?
100% certain of it.
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OK, just bought nat gas.
These CPI numbers are going to be lit…
If I recall correctly, Sir Isaac Newton was invested early in some bubble. He knew it was a bubble. He sold out early for a nice profit.
After he sold many others kept “investing”. Prices continued up. He left money on the table. Finally he decided to jump back in for a little more.
Then prices crashed and he lost his ass.
Timing is of the essence or luck in guessing the timing.
I believe this is how Newton thought of the Law of Gravitation. Stock declines are accelerated as the velocity changes from zero. Second there must be a force that acts on the stock as it declines. If the stock is twice as high as a reasonable valuation its decline will be twice as fast.
A pioneer in in techinical analysis.
He learned the hard way- should have stuck to apples.
So how big a drop do you expect Señor Fly?