iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,329 Blog Posts

MARKETS IN COLLAPSE MODE; DIP BUYERS EXECUTED INSIDE THE CITY SQUARE

I cleaned out my account, swept out all of the junk and the losers and placed them into a trash bin. The hardest part of trading is admitting that we are wrong. It’s in our nature to want to win. Humans are competitive and most of us think we are some special gift to the universe, when in fact we are nothing but particles and dust. We put on clean white coats and wear stiff ties; but we’re still just particles of dust.

I am upset that I sold my FAZ so early, taking early gains. I am equally saddened that I got caught long SHIT stocks into a maelstrom. But I can’t do anything about that now and must react to the market I am seeing, not the one I hope is there. The question I ask myself is “would I buy this now?” If the answer is no, I sell it. Ergo, I sold a bunch of stuff today — raising cash to 75%. In those sales was my last hedge, SOXS. I kicked it out because it was up and did not want to hold it with markets already down 550. Who knows — maybe we rally into the close?

ALT +12.3%
ETSY +0.8%
(SIEN -14.6%)
(OVV -3.4%)
(BSGM -5.4%)
FAZ +3.3%
(NIO -7%)
SOXS +8.9%
(ELF -9.8%)
(OLLI -4.9%)
(RUN -10.3%)
(SE -1.7%)
(TRGP -10%)
(SNAP -7%)
(VBIV -11%)

Net net, I am looking at losses at around 2.7% for the day — an awfully moribund circumstance — but the blood letting, more or less, is over. I can now refocus my efforts to recapture losses and catapult myself towards new successes. I do think, however, one should keep a sharp on the VIX and use that price action to determine the near term direction of the market. Bias is to the downside now.

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12 comments

  1. alty

    Difficult to be long now even for a permabull.

    52 week NH-NL ratio turning negative quickly. Likely going to surpass the # new lows from Apr 1-3 if the sell off continues tomorrow.

    % of NYSE stocks above 200DMA likely to break below 15% again after today or tomorrow’s close:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA200R&p=D&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98987782924&a=450936898&listNum=93

    SPY still expensive and in a down trend. Worst quadrant to be in:
    https://mebfaber.com/2013/09/18/keeping-it-simple-trend-and-valuation/

    Still sitting 60/40 but hoarding/building cash waiting for some more extreme negative sentiment. It’s coming.

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    • awanka

      What have you done with the real Alty?

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      • alty

        Of course I get sucked in after a 2 day 4.5% drop. 😀

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    • soupbone

      Yes but the negative sentiment will have a compelling narative. Makes it hard to switch in and out if it’s not the regime we are used to dealing with. This is not for everyone. I can see swing trading working well if it is engrained in the investing operation already in place.

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      • alty

        Totally agree not for everyone. Probably not for me either, as my timing is usually pretty terrible with moves like this. I view it more as an opportunity to reevaluate what to do with new money that would normally be invested in equities rather than a call to sell out of existing positions.

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        • soupbone

          New money and money from exited positions which needed exiting is ideal to wait. Market timing is the real evil for investors as it leads to portfolio paralysis and missing huge run-ups. Plus it requires correct judgements in other ways leading to a lower likelyhood of winning.

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          • alty

            Completely agree. The behavior gap is real. Loved Carl Richards’ book on the subject.

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  2. og

    Did it bounce right after Tepper stopped talking.

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  3. edge

    Several lines of support just under here. 3t spending bill, possible PPT support too. Down but choppy is my guess.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler
      Mr. Cain Thaler

      “Several lines of support just under here. 3t spending bill…”

      (Laughs in Republican)

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  4. awanka

    This morning I saw the markets rally and rolled my eyes thinking “there it goes again.” This pig should have been more wary. Yesterday was the sentiment shift with tech leaders reversing.

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  5. MSGT HARTMAN

    The crack supply has dried up. Nothing left but 3rd rate Biker Meth cooked in a trailer west of San Fransicko.

    See you at the low of the year.

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