Dow is off by 190 and the Nasdaq is strong. It’s weaker than earlier, but strong. People want to own stocks — because why the fuck not. We should not be owning anything now, all things considered. But if we are anything at all, we are slaves to fashion.
This morning I liquidated several positions in an effort to raise cash. One of them was one of two of my hedges, FAZ. I probably sold it early — but I did not want to own it and see my gains dissipate.
ALT +12.3%
ETSY +0.8%
(SIEN -14.6%)
(OVV -3.4%)
(BSGM -5.4%)
FAZ +3.3%
More or less a wash. When I’m positioned wrong, my knee-jerk reaction is to slow things down by raising cash. I’m uncertain about where stocks close by Friday — but I am pretty sure the fuckers in Washington will do everything in their powers to rig it higher.
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buy TMF and gold vehicles of your choice below the 18 day MA. this is communism. stock markets are a sideshow… THAT BEING SAID NARCIST I AM VERY INTERESTED IN WHAT YOU DO.
all you old cowboys need is a chart to see the man is making some money.
ALSO…
pointing out the Iran deal or any other “seemingly” anti-russia moves made by Trumpito during his reign is no proof that he isnt in Putin’s pockets.?
Like Trump, Putin is a billionaire. Trump wants low rates, because he is a real estate investor with tons of debt. He could care less what it means to AMERICA.
Likewise, if the Ruble crashes… if Iran starves, if Russians themselves starve… nothing matters as long as Gazprom is getting more business.
Billionaires cannot possibly expected to care about governments they see as obstacles.
and yes Obama was a cunt. who gave poor americans healthcare. trump has given americans nothing but a white supremacist renaissance.
(The Jews have already replaced you by the way)
baruch ata adonai eloheinu melek ha olam asher kidshaynu b’mitsvotav.
if it wasnt clear… Putin is the richest man in the world… off of… gazprom and rosneft… these corporations get more business if US shale collapses. Trump is on board. Trump is a wannabe Putin. Both have no problem cutting GDP in half if it puts a few million in their pockets.
This is the MO of every “pro-business” politician. left or right. but lets be clear they tend to line up on the right. all you need to do is hug a flag and talk about jesus to get votes. the trailer trash votes right wing. right wing voters are in aggregate, less educated by far. those who are have no problem they vote on one issue only “taxes”
everyone else is whining about guns nobody is going to take away and “capitalism” we never had. FDR isn’t going to take all the gold either. never happened.
americans are idiots…. back to oil..
everyone (russia/usa/china) wants saudi arabia to win because the final showdown is easier if you are facing the Muslims who wear pajamas versus the ones with engineering schools and nuclear technology. thats why bush and obama and our state department took out…
1. Libya
2. Egypt
3. Iraq
4. Syria
5. Iran (pending)
TLDR
Trump is in Putin’s pocket. Not Russia’s. Find out what else is in Putin’s pockets and this becomes more clear. The ruble and dollar holding jack daniels, stolichnaya drinking oxycontin popping riff raff are not the concern of these two fine gentlemen.
Well put. A little on the hyperbolic side for me but close enough.
Hey, admins … shadow ban this fool
The failure-in-law is musing about postponing the election. That should crash the market.
I’ve been predicting that for years. He’ll try.
Added to my shorts. Powell just said we’re fucked.
Powell said spending more is better than death and Nancy agrees. Turtlehead says no way but he wants to put on a show…like Trump he doesn’t give a rat’s ass about anything but himself. Count on another couple of trillion tacked on to the deficit.
What do you think? 7t this year? Not enough?
At this mkment, I don’t think there’s really much of anything that either DC or the Fed can/will do.
From the standpoint of stimulating the economy, one thing I haven’t heard anyone really say out loud is that we are at the zero bound for both fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Fiscal stimulus works by providing cash incentives to engage in certain transactional behaviors directly. And monetary stimulus works by lowering borrowing costs that may act as a deterrent to engage in transactional behaviors indirectly. But we are in this very unique window where neither is able to effect much.
Case in point, cruise ships: the federal government can offer cruise companies cash to lower ticket prices to go on a cruise ship, and the federal reserve can even go so far as to offer me money if I borrow to finance the trip. But I’m not getting on a fucking boat with a bunch if random strangers right now either way.
Not even if both stimulus methods occur simultaneously. And that transactional analysis plays out again and again and again.
Consider Sweden (GOAT I’m told) never really locked down anything, but their restaurant industry still saw sales collapse by about 70% anyway. Service industry jobs are the cornerstone of employment and they aren’t going to recover while a highly infectious disease is running around. Stimulus is ineffective here, the government/fed will have to spend a trillion dollars just to get a couple hundred billion of impact. This is the exact opposite of the kinds of stimulus we generally target, preferring to spend billions to create trillions in impact.
And politically, there are so many major problems coming up. People who think negative interest rates are coming in America obviously don’t know Americans that well. Giving free money to banks is right out. Same goes for any stimulus that equates to free money for equities. This isn’t Europe or Japan; we don’t have some aristocratic class here. People aren’t used to such blatant self-dealing. A politician who makes that vote is signing their own death warrant.
“Giving free money to banks is right out.” You been on some remote island for the past 12 years?
They didn’t give the banks money. They lended them money at rates so low even a moron could succeed. But it was still incumbent on the banks to get customers and things.
The banks/corporations don’t really need cheap loans right now. They have plenty of that. What they need are customers.
And without customers, what their equity needs to be supported is more analogous to a gift than a loan.
No politician will be biting that bullet immediately before the November election. Maybe not even after.
But best case, you’ve got 8-10 months without strong fiscal stimulus and the Fed’s hands are tied.
“People who think negative interest rates are coming in America obviously don’t know Americans that well.”
I know American’s very well to agree with you in that most people wouldn’t ***like*** to see this… but I can also see 20+ years AT LEAST of the public opinion meaning JACK SHIT in DC. What American’s want or like has not been part of the agenda in politics for ages.
historical yield chart… where else does it go? down?
All the Fed’s horses and all the Fed’s men can’t keep the 10 year note range bound again.
No aristocracy? What exactly is Trump? Bush Jr? Jared? Ivanka? The Jenners?
Once you make or earn enough money to live off of dividends you are in the club and you get paid to live off of actual productive people like surgeons and computer programmers and engineers.
You can even get a “job” on Wall Street buying Blackrock ETF’s on margin and charging the standard “2 and 20”
Vineyard Vines wearing business management undergrads with C averages working at Morgan Stanley first job out of college through the alumni association… getting paid as much or MORE than electrical engineering graduates?
the president is pure unskilled daddy welfare aristocracy with fried chicken scented American charm to top it all off.
Hitler and Mussolini’s speeches were much more impressive.
The American people are a cheap fuck.
It’s odd listening to you guys retelling the history of the last decade.
What I remember includes the Tea Party sweeping lifelong politicians into unemployment, the death of numerous political dynasties, and a wave of bankruptcies that wiped out extensive fortunes. Everyone talks about Goldman or JPM as proof the banker class is untouchable yet oddly nobody mentions Lehman or Bear Sterns.
And now apparently US politicans are going to gift cash to equity bulls in one of the least efficient manners just to support equity prices, on the eve of a major presidential election where both the far right and far left are out for blood.
Guys…this isn’t going to happen.