*** iBC’s MERCH STORE IS OPEN NOW ***
Lots of ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS here today. We’ve got trillions of freshly minted dollars FLOODING into the fucking tape now and nothing can stop it. Oil is zero and BEYOND — fuck the fuck off. APA is up 93% the past month. Hell, the whole energy complex is up 35%. WE DO NOT NEED OIL TO POSSESS A VALUE IN ORDER FOR OIL STOCKS TO RACE HIGHER.
That is all.
Heavily in cash, one short, three longs. Ciao.
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The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.
And a move opposite of our bets. But what the fuck do you bet on? The forever omnipotent put?
I keep going back to straddles…sell in the morning, buy in the afternoon… about 10% of portfolio. Making money but waiting for a big move. Then naked options.
Why not? In a few years money will be everything or nothing.
“Grandpa, what was price discovery?”
Same old thing for me. A straddle.
Also a little TZA and TVIX. 85% cash.
Its oil. We always will need oil.
A refining capacity decline in response to the slowdown followed by a huge surge in demand once economic activity picks up will see the price of gasoline shoot the moon.
“huge surge in demand” and “economic activity picks up” have the same probability as gas literally reaching the moon. to wit, zero.
APA action not crazy at all /sarc . It’s been trending down steadily for the last 8 years.
Southwest Airlines with a new 52 week low today. Dillard’s too. Some stocks trading as you’d “expect”.
DDS is the next JCP
Heavy long Gold and White Claw Slushies. Would happily get heavier if the market affords me the opportunity.
25% short S&P (starting today), 75% long miners (initiated 3 months ago). banking some serious coin on the latter.
Penis
LOL get some Richard.
We should all have our own oil or tech firm. Doing nothing, just taking the fed money.
It takes time, certainly not overnight, for some swinging balls to get out of the market. Once that’s done the red ink flows heavier. Same as 2008.
It’s called a market anomaly! Trade accordingly.
Tankers Tankers Tankers. The money these companies are making is massive. Fixed costs and EPS looking like they will be 6-8X last years earnings. Hell, they even give a healthy dividend. I’m in FRO and NAT. I think FRO may actually do better economically but i split my exposure with NAT because it seems to be the name being tossed around. The crazy thing is they actually had really good 4th quarter reports and even better 1st quarter guidance but they had there reports right in the middle of the shit storm and everything tanked. With oil contango holding up spot rates and long term storage at very lucrative rates taking a large percentage of tankers off the market they should have the best year the tanker industry has ever seen. I traded some of these back in 2009 and made a killing. I’m guessing people will flock to these with the dividend and massively accelerating earnings while the rest of the market realizes it is way ahead of itself over the next few months. I also don’t see the contango situation easing soon.. reason being a lot of the oil producers are hoping the restart of the economy will balance supply demand so they are going to keep pumping and store in on floating tankers for future month sales.. With the bulk of corporate america working from home for the foreseeable future I think we are going to have a pretty slow demand pickup and the contango situation will likely last for a while with front months dropping off at the end of the month to compensate for the storage cost that is hard to find.
1yr rates on VLCCs have moved from $31k/day in March to $67k/day.
FRO has a huge tanker fleet, and they are making more than $1 million in “price war profit” **per day** on this rate increase on just their largest tankers.
https://www.frontline.bm/fleet/
Last May, this rate was $10k/day for these same supertakers.
Under the current rates, FRO fleet of 69 supertankers will be making $100M/month in revenue. On the downside, some of their fleet was already contracted at lwoer rates.
On the upside, these rates wil lcontinue to rise. The reason for the negative oil rpices is because theri is no room to store it adn that situation is only gettign worse. If Trump does put oil tarifss, that will just **raise** tanker rates further.
Quest Diagnostics reports earrnings, small beat with this cheerful comment.
“Quest announced a number of cost-cutting measures to weather the coronavirus crisis in coming months. The measures include executive pay cuts, reduced hours for employees whose work has significantly declined, and furloughs. Looking ahead, the company said that it is withdrawing its 2020 financial guidance, while its Board of Directors remains committed to its quarterly dividend payout.
Moreover, the biotech company warned that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to impact its ability to comply with financial covenants, from as early as the end of the second quarter. As a result, it would not be able to borrow against its credit facilities and the lenders would have the right to request any outstanding payments.
To avert a debt repayment scenario, Quest is in advanced discussions with its lead lender seeking an amendment to certain financial covenants of its unsecured revolving credit line, which would provide the company with the necessary financial flexibility in 2020. It expects to reach an agreement on the amendment later in the quarter.”
key word is “unsecured” revolving credit line. worst case with a covenant default with an unsecured line of credit is lender freezes line and demands payment on any outstanding balance. CFO just goes to another “hungry” bank looking for outstanding loan balances and depsoits, probably at a little higher interest rate (maybe libor + 175bps; instead of 150bps). New bank gets a fee (financed off the Line), outstanding loan balances, interest income and depsoits. Next…….
They won’t even have to do that. The lenders will give them an amendment to their credit agreement to waive the covenants. That’s why they are in early discussions with them. As long as quest is still making payments, even if they are using their revolver to do so, the lenders will give them leeway. Lots, and lots, of amendments going on in credit agreements right now.
Eurozone contracting at a rate of 7.5% per quarter.
Meh, priced in.
Buy the dip.
These new circumstances are not priced in this market. There’s just flooding of the market with cash, nothing is priced in.
Egg omellete for 10.000? Sure, fed will buy it, if it’s sold on the stock exchange.
Jobless claims better than expected (4.4 vs 4.5 m), futures up.
If there were only 2 m new jobless folks, we’d be at new highs today, NQ at 10k.
All jobs from 2009 gone is bullish?
The market is gambling all in that once the economy starts to reopen, all of these unemployed people will file back to their old positions – which will all still exist – and everything will race back up to the speed it was going in January.
It’s a lot like gambling you can pick up a penny off a steel press before the next drop cycle.
Good morning. Don’t get HOOKED, FAGS
I can’t make sense of this “market” Fly…
I’m going to go with this chart:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA
Initial claims is what it sounds like: the first time someone applies for unemployment after they are laid of.
In the 52 weeks of 2008, we had a total of 21.7 million.
In the 52 weeks of 2009, we had a total of 29.8 million.
In the 52 weeks of 2010, we had a total of 23.9 million.
The worst 52 week period ever was 11/08/2008 – 11/07/2009, with 30.3 million
In just 5 weeks, we have already had ***26.4 million*** people file for unemplyment.
The workforce is only 164 million, so while much of the white-collar world is working from home, overall 1 out of 6 people have lost their job.
Keep in mind that these numbers don’t even count the zombie jobs that the PPP program is paying companies to keep.
They’re not unemployed – they’ve encased them in carbonite. They should be quite well protected. If they survived the freezing process, that is!
Given the Congressional bill, that may be a good analogy. However, employers won’t release them unless consumer spending rebounds.
Nice line graph. When do we get a shiny new grey bar?
Sold APA, XLE calls, still holding OXY. BA and airlines moving. My LVS up today.
END is near. Of lockdown.
I’m curious, what do you mean by we are “the end of lockdown”?
100% of buisinesses reopen?
No business permanently closed?
No social distancing?
Back to pre-covid cousumer behavior?
Also, what is “near”?
End of May? End of August? End of 2020?
I’m confidant that you and most bulls have given this no thought, just hope and prayers, but you can prove me wrong pretty easily.
I am up 120% since March 20, will double from here this spring with my understanding of the disease and conviction.
I tried to change perception with my knowledge and perspective but it was futile.
Haha money is electricity
“you can prove me wrong pretty easily.”
…but you didn’t even try.
*If* you are up 120% since March 20, that isn’t actully something to brag about. It means you took highly leveraged psotions and got lucky, little difference between the 50% of gamblers that go all-in on Black
I’m guessing you will stop posting by December.
He’s trolling you.
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/04/banks-made-10-billion-fees-processing-ppp
Boolish.
Snark aside, I’m slowly buying some /ES puts starting here.
I have 10 puts, negative 1k in puts, up 12 k overall so far.
also holding one CMG put, even rt now.
Where’s the bug this morning?