iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,344 Blog Posts

Do You Feel in Charge?

Two housekeeping notes here. I used to blog a lot more news items than I do now — because I push many of the relevant news items via my Twitter account. I find it to be more efficient. You can access my Twitter account here — or use our newswire, which is free, that also compiles some great breaking news accounts for finance.

Browsing thru the news this morning and afternoon a few things stood out.

1. Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to argue about crude prices and the meeting for Monday has been canceled with a tentative raincheck date scheduled for April 9th.

2. Credit markets continue to deteriorate, but credit agencies are not downgrading CDO and CLO tranches.

3. A fuckload of maturities are due in 2020. For $MET along, 16% of their debt needs to be rolled over.

4. Platts Analytics believe supply won’t be turned off to the degree necessary unless Brent goes to $10.

5. Lines of credit are being drawn down at a record pace, with $15b+ being drawn in recent weeks. Total revolvers amount of $200b, half of which are in the consumer discretionary sector.

6. There are massive shortages of medicine and medical equipment due to COVID-19.

7. The death rate isn’t decreasing and the ‘flattening of the curve’ isn’t here yet.

8. Goldman says the nation’s largest department stores have 1 month of cash left

And this you have to see for yourself.

Honestly, I don’t know what the hell is going on — but I do know none of this is good for business and share price valuations. At a minimum, even after we cure COVID-19 and business gets back to normal, there will be a reduction is business activity due to PTSD and margins will be strained, as businesses attempt to restart their engines.

The S&P is down 23% for the year. Is that enough? The tech heavy Nasdaq is only down 14% for the year — because business as usual in tech-land. No one thinks Apple can be stopped.

What is this fucking chart telling me? Did we break the downtrend or is this rally a suckers respite that will fail and revisit the lows? You know the “WE MUST RETEST THE LOWS” fags are going to be out in force come Monday — should markets drop again.

Markets will most likely soar once we start to see normalcy return and people will think everything is good, up until numbers showing permanent damage are disseminated. It’s going to be a very volatile market for at least another 6 months.

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83 comments

  1. i_am_nemo

    The rating agencies operated like this in 2008

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj2W_EqKzuw

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  2. irma vep

    Ppl will deal with their PTSD by shopping.

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    • i_am_nemo

      They will run up their credit card debt and not pay the bill.

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  3. i_am_nemo

    The Department of Housing and Urban Development on Thursday directed companies that service government-insured mortgage loans to give beleaguered borrowers the option to defer payments for up to a year, effective immediately.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/02/fha-mortgage-relief-policies-162150

    Bank of America Allowing 50,000 Borrowers to Defer Mortgage Payments

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/02/bank-of-america-allowing-50000-borrowers-to-defer.aspx

    Anyone with a lick of sense will not pay any bill for as long as they don’t have to.

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  4. numbersgame

    Totally agree on oil. FRO is my largest % loss in quite a while (even counting 3x inverses!), but I added to it (and added a LOT of DRIP on Friday morning and aftermarket).

    As for this: “people will think everything is good, up until numbers showing permanent damage are disseminated”
    that goes with what I’ve been saying about earnings+forecasts. Although COVID-19 will continue to grab the headlines, this should be on investors radar in April:

    https://www.finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=earndate

    Are AMZN and MSFT really immune to COVID-19?
    We’ll see this month, but the impotent repsonse to TSLA’s delivery beat (88k vs 77k -> down for the week, not even overcoming Thursday’s loss) is telling

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    • openwater747

      I’ve noticed you here, making good decisions. The FRO play surprises me. I understand the tanker storage play, nut this was highlighted on RV last week, soon after people came out of the woodwork claiming it as theirs. Why stay long? Those tankers will be full soon, were shut in. If you want a long term oil play, why not go way long, offshore drillers. I forgot the ETF, but it’s been decimated. Anywahy, I enjoy your posts, don’t mean to take a pot shot, just surprised you stayed long. Cheers. I’d go back an edit, but seem unable to?

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      • numbersgame

        FRO (tankers) works in both directions.
        – Assuming no deal is done, tankers can set their price in the short-term. Full tankers equals money-machine, which will send the stock up quite a bit.
        – if the economy recover strongly, then oil will recover and tankers will again do well (several months out). Look at the
        – in the middle ground, where oil ouput is reduced (through a deal) AND we have a longer recession where demand doesn’t increase, then there won’t be much of a price apprecaition for FRO, but I think the downside is also limited, although I guess I should do more research on this point.

        (By the way, I am not hostile to disagreements at all, just don’t like it when people hurl persoanl insults)

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    • edge

      Numbers- AMZN will benefit mightily. Between brick and mortar closures and more people using home delivery they pick up market share.

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  5. og

    Get a washlet / bidet. You’ll use less toilet paper and they are wonderful.

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  6. ericbakerbruce

    oil for the win in 2024.

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    • numbersgame

      That’s a Pro call: so long out, that if you are right, you can say, “I called it 4 years ago,” and if you are wrong, no one will remember.

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      • ericbakerbruce

        i’m not a trader like most on this board. i remember buying XOM way back when it was in the $30’s. collected the dividend and waited 10 years or so to more than double. i’ll buy it the kid’s roth ira now.

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        • alty

          In numbers’ village they buy things with rights and wrongs. They are ahead of the curve.

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  7. edge

    The S&P peaked at about 3400, and it took a lot to get it there, buybacks for one, which won’t be a player for a while. We sit at 2500.
    Without buybacks maybe it went to, say, 3000. Lop off a minimum for the Corona damage, 10-20%?
    2400-2700 seems optimistic, although how do you vet the 12 trillion or so that is likely to be spent?
    Be ready for anything. The earth will shake for two years.

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    • i_am_nemo

      If they spend up to $10 trillion on this clusterfuck, you have to split your bets. The market completely craters (down 70%+ from the highs) over the next year or two and trades flat flat for years or there is a bottom and the market skyrockets Venezuela style.

      Cash holders will be screwed either way. Huge inflation is on the horizon and will affect anyone who formerly thought themselves middle class. We are talking the inability to buy new things or afford even the basic things like food, clothes, shelter.

      Going out to eat will be a luxury.

      It is possible other countries will fail financially and on a social level before we do. We probably won’t be far behind.

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      • alty

        You could be a hell of a fiction writer. The inflation boogeyman strikes again.

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        • i_am_nemo

          I don’t believe inflation is going to happen in things like college education, car prices, home prices etc… Those prices are going down the toilet. I just think inflation is going to happen in the basics like clothing, food, booze, cigarettes, toilet paper. The kinds of things you could barter with.

          I worry about people living paycheck to paycheck who are going to be in deep trouble in a few months and going forward.

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          • richardweiner

            I have a message from Jay Powell. You need to deflate your balls. Stock up on tissues. and don’t use them for barter. Personal use only. Get the poison out.

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          • wolfdaddy

            Don’t worry. They will receive $1200 in 6 months. It’s all good

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          • numbersgame

            The simplest conclusion from Congressional spending and FED buying bonanzas is inflation.

            However, I beleive that view is wrong. Just take a look at the last 20 years for proof.

            Massice CB intrevention, rising budgete deficicits -> rising house prices, rising stock, rising bonds

            To get inflation at the consumer level, ***you have to actually give consumers money***. Instead every CB action and most Congressional action have been: Federal money -> corporations -> 1% owners.

            Do the math on a $2T bill with a country with 370M people. Hint: it doesn’t work out to $1200/person

            Also, you have to consider the **velocity** of money. Consider 10 people and they all ahve no moey but they all sell different goods that are all in demand from each other. This is a liquidity crisis. You give one guy $10, he’ll buy waht he wants from the next guy and so forth.

            Now imagine instead giving $20 to an 11th guy that already has everything he needs. Well, he could loan it out to the others, and then you have the 11th guy getting even richer, which isn’t good. However, an even worse situation is that he doens’t loan it out, because the other guys don’t have any sales…

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      • soonerxii

        Yepp. Sigh

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  8. narcist

    This (for the willing pizza donors):

    https://twitter.com/andpizza/status/1242259258336579596

    Also, this (for those who are too cheap to donate):

    https://realgoodfoods.com/pages/give-good-real-good-foods

    My fraternity raised some money and dropped off meals at the hospitals in the Atlanta metro. I suggested that it ought to be a recurring activity.

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    • wolfdaddy

      No wonder you post absolute nonsense. You’re a bun wearing beta male faggot who has never earned a dime

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      • narcist

        Your “beta male faggot” is pathetically repetitive, as some others have previously noted.

        Also, I’m sure I booked more gains last week than you did last month–feel free to find an independent auditor (KMPG, Ernst & Young, etc.) and we’ll go from there. Each of us puts 10 racks in an escrow account.

        The lump-sum will go to a charity of your choice if my claim is proven incorrect. Otherwise, it goes to my preferred charity (the Thurgood Marshall College Fund).

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      • numbersgame

        You do realize that you can only have one Alpha by definition.

        You think you are it?

        Highly doubtful. More likely an (a)lpha, a worker bee, an easily manipulated groupie eager to follow the loudest voice in the room.

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        • narcist

          More like a real-life mesh-up of Dwight Schrute and Rick Santorum.

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          • narcist

            And, for the record, the alpha wolf ran away like a stank pussy.

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          • numbersgame

            Really? “stank pussy”? That pretty much feeds into the whole (a)lpha male culture.

            I’m not going to claim that I’ve never used offensive terms, but the irony here…

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          • narcist

            Irony or not, I throw their words back at them.

            I’m not your politically correct pansy-liberal if I have to remind you.

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      • newbalance

        lol hyenas yapping

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  9. richardweiner

    I have an important PSA. I was googling for things to get me aroused and I came across this guy (and others) recommending clove oil. https://www.drweil.com/health-wellness/balanced-living/healthy-living/clove-oil/

    I put clove oil on my wang and balls literally was the most painful thing I have ever experienced. It turned my junk completely purple and was like Icy Hot on my balls. I wanted to cut my junk off. I am firmly convinced 95% of transgenders just put clove oil on their junk. If you think I am making this up, put clove oil on your balls. Will sting like the worst thing on Earth and make you want to cut them off to take away the pain.

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    • i_am_nemo

      I did something similar. You blend raw garlic,olive oil, crushed zinc supplements and vinegar in a food processor and apply it wearing an athletic protector.

      I’ve read where domestic violence is on the rise so some entrepreneur has come up with a product called ’round two makeup’ .

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  10. edge

    I made the mistake of taking a leak after picking hot peppers. I’m more careful now.

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  11. j-krew

    “Fags”? In 2020? I remember following this blog 10 years ago and thought Fly was crude but funny. 10 years later, this reads like basement troll trash.

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    • richardweiner

      I know. I can’t believe he said fag. Awful. Something Hitler would say if he were still alive.

      But I did help class the place up with my admonition above about not putting clove oil on your junk. Seriously, better ways to get it up. It will literally turn your junk dark purple and make you want to saw it off. Worst pain of my life. Felt like my junk was being held over an open flame. Say no to clove oil on your junk.

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      • numbersgame

        Speaking of hitler: when you’re not talking anatomy, you’re a goose-steppinging racist, pretty much the lowest form of life on this blog.

        “Fly is a Gook”
        https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/11/06/todays-bounty-stepping-aside-cash-hand/#comment-564487

        “Jews control the markets”
        https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/11/06/observe-way-market-works/#comment-564489

        “Colored people are drug addicts”
        https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/11/07/trump-wins-fucking-trade-war-rapper-drake-gets-sell-drugs/#comment-564502

        “Colored people are drug addicts” take 2
        https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2019/12/06/unemployment-sinks-3-5-america-adds-266k-jobs-november/#comment-564871

        Fly should make you an exception to the no-ban rule.

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        • narcist

          Ugh, IP/MAC address bans don’t work. Hard to really ban effectively without human moderators, but maybe you can volunteer…

          Do you actually rank the forms of life on this blog?

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        • narcist

          To be honest, I had a literal laugh at the gook comment and Fly’s reply.

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          • numbersgame

            “Of course you did, because you are a ____.”

            I’m guessing you are African America, so tell me what slur is funniest here? I’m sure there are plenty of people that would love to fill that in without generating an LOL from you (or me).

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          • narcist

            I just don’t get insulted as often and easily as you do. I grew up taking much shittier insults IRL.

            Don’t be so butt-hurt so easily. Get used to the trolls and the 4chans and their vileness. The internet would have already finished college and law school if it was a human. And like an mature adult, it would adapt to those things.

            Political correctness is annoying.

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          • narcist

            And to fill in the blank with the help of the Nolan chart:

            https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/rakich-WELD-01.png

            I am one notch above Bill Weld.

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          • numbersgame

            1) “I just don’t get insulted as often and easily as you do.”
            Easier said than done. I haven’t seen you ignore an insult on this blog yet.

            2) The right axis is mislabeld on that cahrt. On the economic scale it’s anot a matter of whetehr you want more or less governemetn intervention, it’s a matter of who you want the ogvernement to intervene on behalf of the rich or the poor. Witness the BBBB

            3) “Political correctness” is a bullshit term that only shoudl be applied to companies and public figures. It’s how weak people defend bad behavior. Common decency and morallity shoudl be enough to tell you how to speak and act (and post).

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          • narcist

            1. My modus operandi is to reply to any comment that deserves/warrants a reply, be it an insult or not.

            2. So tell that to Nolan who invented the chart. The one I showed you above is consistent with his original one.

            3. Most of the “main crew” of this channel exhibit neither common decency nor morality. Elsewhere, I speak and act (and post) like how I normally am–in a markedly different (and usually very pleasant) manner. (Frankly, and you should be well aware, I even converse with you and a select few here with proper decorum and generosity.)

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          • narcist

            4. Eye-for-an-eye (or the less biblical “show respect to get respect”) is a fair policy in most circumstances.

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          • numbersgame

            1./4. I beleive that you are the one that first accused me of becoming easliy insulted

            2. I didn’t think you manipualted or created the cahrt, however, you showed the chart, implying that you agree with its construct.

            3. The reason I don’t like the word “gook” isn’t because of poltical correctness. BTW, “Libertarian” isn’t a racial slur; “Gook” is. If “Gook” isn’t funny IRL, then it shouldn’t be funny here. Also note that even a lowlife like RW is picky about the racial slurs he employs. note the work “gook” vs “crack head” and Jew”. weak people pick weak targets.

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          • narcist

            1. Accused is a rather strong word. People have suggested/implied that you tend to be too stiff/unnecessarily serious in how you comport yourself. But, sincere apologies if I accused you wrongly.

            2. The chart has been around for decades and political scientists have been using it for decades. It makes perfect sense to me and them. Have you done a Nolan chart quiz before? (You may have second thoughts about whether Nolan mislabeled the labels after doing a quiz or two.) BTW, I’d like to know where your ideology point sits on the chart.

            3. Okay, let me clarify about that: It’s *not* the word “gook” that got me to laugh. It’s the comic effect that the entire gook comment *plus* Fly’s reply elicit. (I’m afraid we’re having some kind of “Franken-Coburn” moment here.)

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        • richardweiner

          I noticed you didn’t actually refute my extremely cogent points. You know what you are? You are the worst kind of racist.

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    • narcist

      Cruel or crude? Anyway, not disagreeing but it is still funny to the iBC key (shrinking) demo. There are still like 5 or 6 of them left and the majority have already opined via their downvoting power. (The quorum is present.)

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    • i_am_nemo

      Hey SJW

      If you really followed this blog back in the day, you would know Fly is an equal opportunity offender.

      I’m a horrible market timer and permabear. the last time I showed up and posted here markets went %50 lower. That was half way through 2008. I was doing IT consulting for a company that went from 100 employees to under 20.

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  12. nyczq

    Start making some dollars online today by following instructions on this website.Everybody can get this job now by just copy this site in browser and then follow instruction to get started……..https://bit.ly/39EJU6V

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  13. i_am_nemo

    Give it a week, they will call it a peak. Markets rally hard, then the big slide.

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  14. moosh

    If I wanted to be a drug dealer like Dr Fly dabbles in from time to time…what are some high potential virus spec plays of interest now?

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  15. xTrada

    Fly, do you not get why people are buying toilet paper??? Because it’s versatile, it’s the SPAM of paper products. It’s a tissue, paper towel, as well as toilet paper for ass wiping in a very efficient form factor at a low cost.

    That’s why.

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    • ericbakerbruce

      Use lettuce. Iceberg is better than romaine. Bib lettuce in an emergency only; your fingers go right through that shit.

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  16. edge

    Re-read the article. The chart!
    Normally price falling through a bear flag is one of the more reliable TA patterns but this market is in a class of its own. I have doubts about valuing the markets in a traditional manner.
    In that vein of thinking the resolution of this bear flag may tell us something about whether old ways are still useful.
    The problem is that this is possibly the most significant global financial disaster of all time, the quickest governmental intervention of all time, and, at least in the US, the largest intervention (45% of GDP) of all time. Fully 50% of GDP if Trump and the Democrats get their way. Trump & Dems vs Repubs! So weird. Everything is turned upside down.
    You would think that big moves will be fairly common but direction? I’m going with index straddles, the big risk there is a falling Vix. Trying to trade around that kept me really busy Friday; got dinged but not too bad…held a light position over the weekend.
    As for the article’s title- oh yeah. I’m a boss.

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  17. tjnyt

    “How Gullible Politicians Promoted Global Economic Destruction And Threw Us Into The Abyss Of Serfdom”. Zerohedge.
    I said it here 2 wks ago and everybody ……….

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    • tjnyt

      “If the modelers and the responsible government bodies had looked at the basic numbers instead of elaborating an apparently sophisticated model, they would have noticed that there has been no noticeable rise of the death rate. A look at the overall death statistics shows flat lines with fluctuations within its natural range. Even in Italy, there has not yet been a higher number of deaths than usual in the past couple of months. In absolute numbers, the death count is actually slightly down because of the seasonal factor that wintertime is over.” zerohedge.

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    • numbersgame

      You were wrong then, and you are wrong now. Ask yourself a few questions:

      1) If there are restrictsions on movement (lockdowns, social distancing, stay-at-home orders, etc), do you expect the deaths from violent crimes to go down, stay the same, or go up?
      2) If there are restrictsions on movement, do you expect the deaths from car accidents to go down, stay the same, or go up?
      3) If there are restrictsions on movement, do you expect the deaths from infectious diseases to go down, stay the same, or go up?

      Most importantly:
      4) If there are restrictsions on movement, do you expect the deaths from **COVID-19** to go down, stay the same, or go up?
      and
      5) Given the fact that there ARE restrictions in place on 90% of the 1st world popultaion, why is the death rate near-unchanged **instead of going down**?

      I understand why Zerohedge would ignore such obvious conclusions and intentionally misinterpret scientific papers (the 500,000 UK deaths quoted was wtih **no behavioral internventions**), but not why a self-proclaimed medical doctor would grasp onto such tripe.

      If you are a doctor, then II assume that you are one of those arrogant types that sees themselves as infallible.

      Here’s a simpler analogy: if you put restrictions on gun ownership and gun deaths go down, does this mean that there was no need for those retrictions to have been passed?

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    • numbersgame

      Here’s another question: why is the illness, hospitalization ,and death rate for cruise ships so much higher this year?

      Bad chicken?

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  18. edge

    So in New York the refrigerated trucks are there for show?

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    • numbersgame

      Must be because hospitals are so busy that the staff doesn’t have time to go out for lunch and most restaurants are closed anyway, so naturally they needed more food storage for the cafeteria /s

      (PS don’t ask why the hospitals are so busy in the first place…)

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  19. narcist

    https://crooksandliars.com/2020/04/man-who-tested-positive-coronavirus-after

    Oh, the schadenfreude. I hope he went to some Klan rallies as well before he died.

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      • numbersgame

        Of note, the party was 3 weeks ago and “Los Angeles had yet to issue any bans on large gatherings” at the time, so you can put partial blame on the Democratic, Latino, Jewish, Klan leader of LA, Eric Garcetti.

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        • narcist

          Blame? I am sincerely grateful for everyone who is helping to maximize the casualties.

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          • narcist

            As the bug finds its way to the trailer parks and shit-hole towns, the schadenfreude will only get more and more overwhelming.

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          • numbersgame

            Just curious, considering that LA is about 50% Latino, casualties among which groups? Everyone?

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          • oohrah

            The cities would get hit first–we all knew that from the get-go.

            By July 4th, the subsequent body counts will get more and more lopsided on the Confederate ledger–a striking parallel of Battle of Gettysburg that ended on July 3rd, 1863, upon which the tide turned in the Union’s favor.

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          • narcist

            @numbers

            California in general isn’t a top target. It’s already as blue as any state can get, with less than a handful of exceptions like MA and RI.

            AZ, however, is a top target. If the wind from the pacific blows strong enough, it will catch a good dose.

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  20. tjnyt

    I sincerely hope this virus kills all political animals and clears the stench permeating our nation.

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    • narcist

      If neither the Civil War nor the Spanish Flu managed to do that, this bozo virus won’t. (It kills almost exclusively old people.)

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    • peaches

      you sound like a sioux warrior. father virus will wipe off the settlers.

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    • peaches

      november 8th 2016 was little bighorn for rednecks

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  21. tjnyt

    NYS reports first decline in daily COVD deaths.
    Bill Gates says virus deaths may not reach experts’ worst-case scenario.
    Run jackals…

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  22. tjnyt

    I told my younger brother, an internist, to STFU, when the first thing he uttered; the number of deaths in the US this morning,” you are behind the curve” I admonished. People are tired of this BS, here in Stuyvesant Town, throngs gathered in the afternoon around the fountain, from toddlers to elderly with walkers and w/c and I wondered why my city is in lockdown, how long?

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  23. tjnyt

    Cuomo can connect all the confiscated ventilators and connect them serially up his ….

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  24. peaches

    one thing is clear. you guys are running out of weed.

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  25. awanka

    For the first time in a decade I feel like I’m making some real progress on my backlog of video games. It’s so easy to order to go from my favorite restaurants now. Work consists of checking my corporate emails a couple of times a day, since everything is on hold. If it wasn’t for the appalling amount of suffering on main street, this quarantine would be pretty awesome.

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