iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,179 Blog Posts

Brace Yourselves: A Storm is Brewing

Look at the top ranked sectors in Exodus. Looks oddly defensive no?

After such a gigantic melt up in January, coupled with pandemic fears and supply chain disruptions in Asia, it’s time for a fucking pause. It’s time to board the ark and also get into the FAZmobile. Definable risk in XLF and SMH makes for a palapable trade to the downside. Get positioned for some downside and bathe in the blood of your enemies. The good days are officially over and with it comes dark sadness and gloom.

Aside from the plague, global growth is at risk of collapse — because of aforementioned plague. Ergo, and this goes without saying, a fucking black swan is upon you.

I realize this is the last piece of shit news you’d like to be entreated with on this fine Saturday afternoon. But too bad. Life is hard sometimes and you can’t always get what you want. Sometimes you get what you deserve, and sometimes much worse.

Le Fly is positioned for downside risk, but not an exaggerated degree. I first want to see some confirmation on Monday and then I’ll really get bearish. You have no idea how acrimonious I can be — like a funeral director with the blog up in here.

Cheers!

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32 comments

  1. moosh

    House of saud aramco can’t catch a break. Interesting that big tobacco is leading

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  2. pb

    Agreed, currently re-reading Heart of Darkness. A fine work (one of the best). Mr. Conrad had a slightly different sense of humor than you do: but were it otherwise, we’d all get bored.

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  3. 'merica

    What’s up with ABBV? Hell of a month.

    I’m clearly no doctor, far from it. But I was doing some digging in the interest of a family member who takes Humira. Found an interesting article which suggests that type of medicine has therapeutic potential for SARs.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3256278/

    Basically, an overactive immune response damages the lungs and other organs. These types of drugs are meant to reduce immune response.

    This article explains a lot of how the wuhan flu affects the body, with a reoccurring theme of overactive immune response working against the infected:

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/#close

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    • it is showtime

      A General Update on the Coronavirus Mon Feb 10

      – it is showtime

      – “The thing itself is mutating cytokine”
      – ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/02/10/general-update-coronavirus/#comment-565953

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      • s.k.

        Mutating cytokine makes zero sense. A cytokine does not mutate. It’s a substance secreted by an immune cell. The Coronavirus is not a cell, it is a virus. You have no idea what you are talking about.

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        • it is showtime

          Any attempt to discredit.

          My sources knew over 2 weeks ago,
          cytokine storm was occuring
          on the reuptake.

          How I wrote it.

          is how I wanted it.

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        • it is showtime

          A follow up discredit?
          I knew the difference.

          How I wrote it.

          is.

          how I wanted it.
          Phrased enigmatically…

          The source was an indep alt news hour hosted by a…… microbiologist. Tired? Or gonna pop back up.

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  4. heckler

    It’s gonna be okay guys I looked it up online and they said “no need to panic.” Phew!

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  5. jbandy

    It’s hard to go bearish for anything more than a few days when we know it’s just a matter of time before Powell signals more rate cuts and QE to battle even the smallest economic slowdown. The old me would be so cock-sure going short here, but the new me says Powell and the Fed will ride to the rescue. Fucking moral hazard.

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  6. jbandy

    I don’t know but Fed money-printing always seems to do the trick in pumping up equity prices. Hell, why are we near all-time highs in the first place even though S&P earnings growth has slowed since last year and the global economy was struggling to regain momentum even before coronavirus hit? Answer: Fed standing pat for 2020 (no raises), Fed repo activity, and Fed treasury buying program.

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  7. cheesefries

    If you can be reinfected and there’s no acquired immunity what will stop the virus? Cycle after cycle

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    • moosh

      What are you talking about?

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      • cheesefries

        There’s no acquired immunity.. what will stop the fucking virus from continuing to spread indefinitely is what I’m saying.

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        • it is showtime

          Within the first week,
          alt news was looking at R2.5 to R3.8 transmission – range

          2.5 meaning fairly containable
          3.8 meaning
          Will Be
          Out Of Control

          it’s at least an R 3

          The incubation numbers

          have
          gone
          from

          14 days.

          to 20 days.

          to 24 days.

          Someone just said 27

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        • it is showtime

          correction
          its:

          3-4

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    • 'merica

      I thought that question too and it’s strange nobody really talks about it. If you look at the 1918 flu where an estimated 500 million were infected, it just stopped. How? I don’t fucking know and the google doesn’t seem to give an answer. The virus mutates into something more benign?

      Viruses are fucking weird, where do they come from, honestly, aside from the wuhan biowarfare plant? Honest question.

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      • 'merica

        It’s almost like viruses are firmware for human beings, a code update if you will, from our reptilian alien overlords 😉

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  8. sierra water

    Wtf!! Feds are trying to drop 30-70 patients into the OC next to malls and neighborhoods.. from Travis Air Force bade.. going to be heard in court tomorrow.. 30-70 patients?? Isn’t that more than what the CDC says are here in USA in total?? Trump needs to get on this.. people are being lied to!!! If he fucks this up.. he loses election

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    • helen

      Good/ Fuck him.
      Can’t allow a sick fuckhead spreading his disease.
      Although this would be a little harder in our country.

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    • heckler

      Yes that shit is nuts that fucking net on his head! The dude spits on the gound. WTF

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  9. heckler

    Looots of fucking FEAR out there right isn’t it? The market is gonnna take a shit tomorrow, boucne, and then take a DUMP unless this fucking FLU chills the fuck out right? Europe is about to get destoyed by WuFlu and we’re next holy shit.

    Can gold still go up? Is this where Bitcoin becomes more valuable that anything THAT IS REAL?

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  10. 'merica

    Good news, no new cases in Singapore after their mini outbreak – so it is containable given the resources. Bad news, CDC really shit on the situation in their daily update:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

    “However, it’s important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. In that case, the risk assessment would be different.”

    ” More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.”

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