Fly Buy: $NUGT

Hard to say if stocks will plunge and collapse on Monday. The easier hedges are bonds and gold.

I bought NUGT earlier this morning, first posted in Exodus — naturally.

This is all just a veiled scheme against millennials. Early going, here are some of the losers in the Mexica-American trade war. Guacamole comes to mind — and cheaply made American cars in Mexico. Sounds like twisted irony.

Via Briefing.com

The White House said a 5% tariff starting June 10 will rise incrementally to 25% by October 1 unless there is progress on the immigration crisis.

Stocks are tumbling to an eleven-month low as the market prices in these unexpected tariffs with our Southern neighbor that mixes domestic/immigration policy with economic/trade policy. The White House has become increasingly unpredictable. These tariffs also add uncertainty to the USMCA trade pact that would replace NAFTA, which the White House hopes will be approved by Congress this Summer.

Equity futures gapping down premarket: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) -1.4%, Russell 2000 (IWM) -1.3%, S&P 500 (SPY) -1.1% DJIA (DIA) -1.1%… led by Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -2%, and Industrials (XLI) -1.9%

Auto stocks (CARZ) with already low margins that import vehicles across the US-Mexican border are being hit the hardest:

FCAU -5.30% GM -5.08% NSANY -4.74% F -3.70% RACE -2.45% TSLA -2.26% DDAIF -2.09% HMC -1.95% TM -1.54%
Auto suppliers:

DLPH -8.5% LEA -5.34% BWA -4.45% TEN -3.63% AXL -3.47% ALV -3.25% DAN -3.25% APTV -2.65% MTOR -0.86%
Other Mexican importers:

STZ -6.3%, CVGW -2.3%, CMG -1.5%

Good morning traders!

You thought the stock market was bound to spiral higher and that all of you summer expenses would be covered by this rally — but you were wrong and subsequently destroyed. President Trump has opened up a new trade war with Mexico and they’re going to pay for the wall — whether they like it or not. Periodt.

Over in Europe, the gamblers there are being shattered, root to crown, based off what exactly? I don’t see the connection between a North American trade spat and Germany. At any rate, the ripple effects of this fresh round of protectionism is having a deleterious effect on just about everything — sans bonds.

WTI -2%
BTC -5%
Nasdaq futs -105

And the 10yr treasury is now nearly 7bps to a new low of 2.157%, whilst the 3mo is flat at 2.368%.

I cannot believe this is happening. Truth be told, this is worth losing money for. Granted, I did not see this coming and as a result — STOCKS WILL GET HAMMERED. But boy oh boy is this fun.

On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP. The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied,..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 30, 2019

Dow futures are OFF by 200, Nasdaq 69. WTI is down 1.45% and the 10 yr bond is at a staggering 2.18%.

A statement from the White House.

To address the emergency at the Southern Border, I am invoking the authorities granted to me by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Accordingly, starting on June 10, 2019, the United States will impose a 5 percent Tariff on all goods imported from Mexico. If the illegal migration crisis is alleviated through effective actions taken by Mexico, to be determined in our sole discretion and judgment, the Tariffs will be removed. If the crisis persists, however, the Tariffs will be raised to 10 percent on July 1, 2019. Similarly, if Mexico still has not taken action to dramatically reduce or eliminate the number of illegal aliens crossing its territory into the United States, Tariffs will be increased to 15 percent on August 1, 2019, to 20 percent on September 1, 2019, and to 25 percent on October 1, 2019. Tariffs will permanently remain at the 25 percent level unless and until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory. Workers who come to our country through the legal admissions process, including those working on farms, ranches, and in other businesses, will be allowed easy passage.

Boss.

A 5% tariff on $350 billion in total Mexican imports = $17.5 billion.

Think that’ll get Mexico’s attention? You know it will.

On Trumps watch, the invasion of America is ending.

And it appears that yes, Mexico is paying for the wall.

— Kip Herriage (@KHerriage) May 31, 2019

So many of you brain surgeons are taking the summer off from trading — opting to be led around by the neck by your wives to some exotic locale in order to drain you of all your money.

We do not stop trading because the warmer climes makes our wives want to do stupid things. We press on, backs against the current, until we’re dead and in graves.

Into the close, I bought SY. I am now long a fuckload of LK, SOXL, LABU, GUSH and several other names — positioning for a big ass bounce. After we bounce, I’ll position for the coming storms.

Good day and ciao (the most annoying form of goodbye)

I’m simply taking the path of most resistance now, doing the exact opposite of what a smart person might do in the market now. Clearly the market is injured and wanting lower. However, you and I both know — NOTHING CAN STOP THE BUYING. A Trump trade war win is simply one tweet away.

As such, I purchased shares of GUSH and LABU — taking long directional bets in the riskest of sectors. Also, I bought a maximum third tranche of LK — the Chinese Starfucks. This is now my largest position at 15%.

I’m here at Panera enjoying the wifi while strangers cavort inside of my house. My SOXL trade is working and the market looks a little weak. I see crude is lower — but bonds are higher. Oil stock are sharply lower and I think that is going to change soon.

I’m eating a very cheesy sandwich now and the coffee is bad. I’ll be executing trades inside Exodus shortly. Sorry for the curt blog, as I am very busy eating and enjoying the human depravity that travels through Panera.

I’m taking a small respite now, post supper, to communicate the importance of toil to my readers. Now that I’m selling my fucking house, readers are being falsely led to believe this toil I speak of has only now begun to occur.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

For over 20 years I’ve been hard at work, toiling during the day, well into the late hours at night. Often times I’d go on late night drives to the grocery store and buy $400 worth of food at 2am. Or, I’d scrub every square foot of my floors and WASH THE WALLS and trim work until everything shined like new. We are in a constant state of toil at House Fly and we never rest.

Crumbs on the floor?

Get the fuck up now and clean it up.

Stainless steel appliances defaced with a smudge?

Get out of the spray and fix it now!

Just today I fixed a piece of furniture, washed one of my couches, and scrubbed my floors with bleach powder. After scrubbing it, I washed the floors 6 times to make sure all crumbs and dirt were eradicated.

How do I get the grime from the grout?

Easy — oxygen bleach powder.

Ahead of me are 4 bathrooms and tomorrow morning I will need to scrub down the stoneware in the yard, picnic table, and a sundry of small items.

I’m pushing very hard to either sell or junk every fucking item in this house now, appealing to Mrs. Fly’s superstitious mentality with ideas of “this stuff is cursed!” Thus far, I’ve been unsuccessful. I do not want personal belongings anymore and would be very happy sleeping on nothing more than a mattress on the floor — and a hard wooden chair and a small desk to trade and blog from.

Until that dream is accomplished, I toil.

As you all know, no one wants to see the world burn more than me. You know how influencers on Twitter and IG tell people “stay away from those negative influences, man — just totally ditch them — because they’ll bring you down too”? They’d be talking about me, when it comes to the stock market. If you’ve been reading me for long enough, you know that I will fuck with your bull market at every turn. Whenever the market dives lower, BAM — Fly is there proclaiming end of days.

I suppose this has deeper implications, a mental malady of sorts that afflicts me and causes me to be so god damned angry. But I’ve always enjoyed being angry. I feed off of it and it drives me to do great things. No one fucks with me — because I’ll cut their heads off.

You see markets are off by 300 but several things are keeping this shit in order, such as strong AF semis and Apple and WTI crude has rallied fiercely off the lows and junk bonds aren’t too bad either. My play is this, very simply, and forgive me for rushing to the point as I am busy doing other things: sell tomorrow’s rip and buy a fuckload of TVIX.

Also, have a look at my Chinese Starbucks, LK. Very safu.

Cioa.

I sold $TVIX +5.7%, $TZA +2%, $FAZ +6%, $DRIP +28% — because AAPL is up and semis are up and stocks are trying to climb. So I asked myself, ‘would I buy these fuckers now?’ Since the answer was no, I sold them.

With a part of the proceeds, I went long semis — via SOXL.