MAJOR WINSHIP JUST AROUND THE BEND FOR A CURSED HOUSE FLY

A few personal updates for you.

There is presently a bidding war for my house, with several all cash offers. We are expecting 5 bids in total, if not more.

Now for the bad news.

My Benz was shaking yesterday, so I left it at the dealership. Fucker called me up today and said my cylinder was busted and just to peruse into it — $1500. To fix, we’re looking any $5k. I asked for my car back. I’d rather junk the fucker than pay someone $5k to fix a fucking cylinder, believe me. I’ll likely drop it off at a local mechanic, who dings out at $120 per hour — way better than the dealership FAGS at $144.

Now whenever I get bad news like this — it could only mean one thing: MAJOR WINSHIP IS PENDING. Trust me, this is how I keep myself sane, believing in some sort of cosmic energy out there to justify all of the horrible horribles that seem to afflict me. I’m the most cursed person that I know and I know many people.

The close was solid. The core issues remain the same. “The Fly” made a bold move towards the end of the day — but cannot share it with you because that’s for Exodus members only (NEW POLICY ALERT FOR YOU GRIFTERS OUT THERE).

You like my style and panache? Good.

The one thing I can report is that I sold my largest position today, LK, for a 15% gain. It was a 15% weighting for me, so the win was significant. My NUGT position surged today, now +15% from my basis. I might move on that bitch soon, or double up, or do nothing. Wouldn’t you like to know?

Ah, the pangs of misery and scorn and the devils that surround me. Soon I’ll be leaving this place for good — until then — stay tuned!

You thought you were going to make it — but now look at you. I preside over you with 60% cash and several irons in the fire that all are working swimmingly. I’d tell you what those idea are — but they’re for Exodus closers only.

You need to pay attention to the 10-yr now. Recession is all but a foregone conclusion. We will retest the January lows.

Look at this news.

Bullard says Fed may have to cut interest rates soon due to trade wars, low inflation

And the market is responding with more selling. What does it all mean? Why are we only now burning in hell? It’s because we belong in hell and cannot bounce — because things are spiraling lower.

This is what you get when you get that exuberance going.

SAAS -5.6%.

Let’s recap.

Oil plunging.

Yields plunging.

Analyst talking global recession.

Fucking retarded morons telling you to BTFD.

Listen to me now.

It’s better to be in cash, rather than losing it all in long bets gone horribly long. You don’t owe the market anything, and most certainly not your allegiance. Your job, by definition, is to extract value from the gyrations in price. Right now, and for the most part of a month, stocks have been trending LOWER.

What’s alarming about this drop?

It’s coupled with a shocking decline in semis — off by 25%.

Gold is soaring.

The Yen is strong.

Oil is collapsing.

Bond yields are collapsing.

Talking heads are now pounding the table for ‘global recession’ thanks to trade wars.

Pray tell me, where does one place the market at the trough of said trade war? Just 5% off the highs? I think not.

Do yourselves a favour and raise some cash. I’ve been doing so all day, fortunately taking profits. I will no longer provide the readers of this fine site FREE STOCK PICKS for the duration of late spring and summer — so if you want my actionable trades — you’ll need to subscribe to Exodus — you absolute cheap bastard mother-fuckers.

The cost of Exodus is $1.36 per day. Fuck off if you think I can’t produce that much value in a given day. Fuck off I said (shakes cane furiously at young whipper snapper on lawn).

For the month of May, my quantitative portfolio netted +0.6% for the month — far outstripping the 6% loss in the SPY. Year to date, the Quant has returned +17.7%, crushing the SPY’s +10% showing to small bits and microscopic pieces.

How does it work? Why is it better?

It draws from two pools of stocks, one growth at a reasonable prices (GARP) and another value. There’s also hedges involved, all to do with TLT and GLD. But mostly, the portfolio’s strength is in its diversity, allocating to all 8 sectors of the market evenly and being steered strongly towards stocks with strong technicals. We used the Sharpe ratio as the final arbiter in this picking process.

Last year we had a similar process, but only focused on growth. This year we started a value pool in the hopes of slowing down losses during periods of duress.

So far, so good.

I’m taking the summer off in terms of providing iBankCoin readers with stock picks. I’m taking a cue off so many of you absolute manlets who are choosing to vacation this summer instead of toil. I will, of course, still offer commentary and I will be sure to brag and boast about my adventures and wins — but the picks will remain exclusive domain to the good folks in Exodus — those who choose not to vacation and drink away their time in some tropical locale amidst beautiful things and people. I choose to live amongst monsters, hardened people made from concrete, and I eat gruel, and I trade — even when it’s bad and unprofitable. I STILL TRADE.

Speaking of which, my last pick for you FAGGOTS this summer was NUGT. How’s it doing this morning? Indeud.

Futures are SOFT, but semis are up and so is my largest position LK. I am sure some of you would want to know when I intend to sell LK — but I suppose you’ll have to figure it out on your own — since I will not be telling you. Perhaps I will provide you with a rundown of my wins, just to frustrate you fucking morons and highlight the fact you are nothing compared to Le Fly.

Oil is up, but bond yields are lower. Before barreling back into stocks, you’re gonna want to see bond yields bounce higher, otherwise more panic will set in.

GOOD LUCK TRADING ON YOUR OWN FUCKED FACES!

Greetings plebs!

Based upon some back of the napkin math, the gurus at Morgan Stanley are warning of GLOBAL RECESSION — thanks to Trump’s trade wars. As such futures are hammered down 150.

Investors are overlooking the threat posed by the U.S.-China trade war, which could send the global economy into recession in less than a year, according to a research note published Sunday by Morgan Stanley.

“Investors are generally of the view that the trade dispute could drag on for longer, but they appear to be overlooking its potential impact on the global macro outlook,” wrote Chetan Ahya, the investment bank’s chief economist.

Ahya noted that the outcome of the trade war at the moment “is highly uncertain” but warned that if the U.S. follows through with 25% tariffs on the additional Chinese imports, “We could end up in a recession in three quarters.”

I don’t consider -150 hardly anything to worry about. It strikes me as tepid and I suspect it won’t stick. We’ll either accelerate rapidly to the downside or bounce. Gold is up, however, and that’s where I’m positioned now and I’m glad I bolted out of GUSH before the close on Friday. This is not a time to be brave and resolute, but instead malleable and open to the idea that we can, in fact, collapse from present levels — into the dirt and into the fiery flames of hell — skin removed from bones, bones removed from muscles and CRUSHED into dust and sent back to the earth to nourish the plants and the trees.

May you live in interesting times. Everyone is going to get poleaxed Sunday night.

Exodus closed OVERSOLD on Friday, relaying a signal on our 36 mo algorithms that means the market is highly distressed. In the past 36 mos, this level of stress led to some bottoming out action — providing the end of the world isn’t upon us.

I am only cautioned by the extreme levels we endured this past Oct-Jan — when the scores dove back down to 2009 levels. If we are only to use those score, the 6 mo algorithms, the market IS NOT oversold.

In fact, taking a look at the technology sector — we’re not even close.

Conclusion: I’m cautiously optimistic stocks can bounce here because the 36 mo algo is OS — but if we’re dealing with the issues that harangued us in late 2008 (recession, leveraged loans, plunging crude) — we probably have lower to go before a bounce.

Holy shit, I don’t know whose dick David Milch had to suck to green light this gem — but I’m pleased he did. When was the last time fans were entreated to such a spectacle of entertainment. Dare I say never?

This is one of my all time favorite shows and it only lasted for 3 seasons, ending in 2006. Since it’s based on true characters and real events, the writers of the show couldn’t get too scandalous and walked a very fine line between facts and let’s call it hyperbole. When the show ended in 2006, it was a bitter-sweet event. Everyone knew a show that broadcasted the popular phrase “cocksucker” couldn’t last forever. Fans of the show hated HBOs guts for canceling it, rightfully so. They’ve done lots of fucked up things in the past — but making this movie wasn’t one of them.

I don’t want to spoil anything for any of you, so I’ll just say it was fan service to the extreme and it’ll take you down memory lane in a very good way and it ended with grace, just as you would expect it to end.

Bravo to HBO and the writer David Milch for sucking whoever’s dick and getting this done.

With WTI off by 6% today and oil stocks down just 1%, I energetically sold out of my ill placed GUSH position. It is a reckless position to own, given the fact no one seems to care. VIX still sub $20 means no one thinks this drop will stick.

However, in my experience, 6% drops in WTI is a forward looking indicator. Couple that with plunging rates, copper, and surging treasuries and Yen — you’d have to be fucking mad not to lighten up into the close.

I blew out of both GUSH and SILK — raising my cash position to 30%.

My largest position is LK, at 15% of my portfolio (max for me), catapulted higher by 9% today, rendering my day a profitable one. I’ve been long defensive stocks for a week or so too — heavily weighted in ED, TR, and DLR. I am impervious to market drawdowns — fucked face.

On the Quant side, I’ll be selling out of the May portfolio on Monday for a June mix of defensive value stocks, gold, and bonds. The SPY shed more than 6%, yet I made 1% — for 700bps of outperformance.

You can’t fuck with me, not now, not ever.

Top picks: NUGT, TR, DLR