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Yearly Archives: 2019

Fed Sits on Thumbs, Promises to Become Irrelevant Until 2021

The Fed is officially persona non grata.

Following a year of being beaten around the face and brow by Trump, Powell is mailing it in for 2020, forecasting nothing thru 2021.

“The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective,” the statement said.

“The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate,” the committee added.

This of course means nothing. At the first sign of instability, the Fed will remove the dicks from their mouths and slash rates again. Nothing happens, until it does. In this case, nothing is forecasted thru 2021.

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SAAS UNDER PRESSURE AGAIN

I’m out of the office today with my daughter who needs some testing on her eyes done. No big deal, hopefully — but I’ll be out most of the day.

Early going I see just one of my stocks is sharply higher — SAGE — based on insider buying reports. Software stocks are getting the business, sharply lower, just because.

It’s important to note this sector has been leadership for half a decade and is struggling to regain its footing. I suspect if the market tops out, you will first see it in SAAS.

Other than that, nothing going on.

More later.

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The Signs Are Everywhere — Don’t Be Afraid to Look

You don’t need to look very far to know modern society has gotten piggishly fat and decadent.

We’ve become caricatures of spendthrifts and booze-hounds tripping over each other in grandiloquent manners to disgrace ourselves.

The signs of late stage narcissism and carelessness are everywhere.

How long do you think this can last?

Apple’s new stupid computer, now fetching for $60k.

And you think this makes you better?

When the Fed stops jerking off the markets dick — what will become of us?

While you sit there enjoying that fresh glass of chardonnay, some middle earth’d pleb is in an Amazon slave cage factory loading boxes onto the heads of his peers.

We keep borrowing because there aren’t any negative ramifications.

And then you wonder why we’re at record highs.

Best.economy.ever!

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Evergreen Theme: Nothing Ever Happens

Every year we pray upon the altar of the Fed and hope they rescue us with their gifts of liquidity. The bears get slaty and predict chaos and mayhem. For a time, the markets decline and then more nothing, as they reemerge and spike to fresh highs. The bears shit themselves, eat one of their young, and head back into hibernation. This process has repeated itself yearly since 2009. The market was supposed to collapse over and over again, but more nothing emerged.

Think back to 2016 when the Chinese were fleeing their nation, due to repatriation, and Trump’s election would spell doom for a wide array of factors, namely the trade war rhetoric. What happened? More nothing. We are year 3 into Trump’s trade wars and markets love it. Does this make sense? No, of of course not — but more nothing.

He’s supposed to be impeached and maybe political instability is bad for stocks, no? Also, he talks shit about the Fed daily, and that too is bad. Never undermine your Gods. But more nothing. We keep soaring to new heights.

Yesterday some fucker from Credit Suisse said the Fed would launch QE4 — BEFORE YEAR END. What depraved nonsense.

A fourth round of quantitative easing will be needed before year’s end to address stresses in short-term lending markets, according to Credit Susse analyst Zoltan Pozsar.

So-called QE4 would help rebuild bank reserves, which have dropped as the Fed has shrunk its balance sheet, Pozsar said.

Market experts continue to dissect the problems in repo markets that flared up in mid-September.

Trust me when I tell you, more nothing will come from this. Also, Trump’s impeachment is also more nothing. Nothing ever happens because that’s the segment of the simulation we’re in — one giant fucking troll. Shit appears to be happening — people tossed into prisons, maybe a war or two. But on the big scale, as determined by the stock market, it is more nothing.

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Articles of Impeachment Drafted For Trump; Futures Slump

They say the real reason for the -40 points off in the Nasdaq this morning is the delay in PHASE 1 of the China trade deal being signed. It will never be signed. But I am bored of giving credit to the China news and have come to believe that China isn’t even a real country anymore. I have convinced myself we can do without it and no longer need their factories to make any of our shit.

Today the Democrats will perhaps draft not one but two articles of impeachment, which should end us in the Senate for a show trial. Will Trump finally get impeached, arrested, and then executed for crimes of the highest order? No, as a matter of fact, he’ll probably get reelected because of these articles of impeachment, which leads me to believe something is amiss here.

Yesterday I bought 10 piece of shit stocks based on monkey dart throwing techniques. My cash is still at around 40%, so this sell off will do nothing to me. I am impervious to your market moves.

NFLX caught a downgrade this morning and the analyst says BEHOLD there will be massive subscriber losses in 2020. Do you think so? I don’t.

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I’ve Gone Out and Acquired a Portfolio of Shit

The market is boring and I have some big dicked gains this year, so I went out like a blind monkey and thew darts at a board and bought 10 shit stocks. My methods are clear: buy stocks that did poorly this year. I curated said list amongst different industries and made sure they had certain things I liked — and then I threw darts at the wall and selected 10 stocks.

Pretty simple. I am sure my Ape method of stock picking will defeat 99% of hedge funders out there, and 100% of IARs.

I haven’t eaten all day and have spent most of my time either at the gym, reading, or working on projects. It’s important that you understand Le Fly has been run ragged the past 5 years and moved down to N. Carolina, partly to relax — get away from it all. With the launch of Exodus 2.0 around the bend, my life will be turned on its ass again, so I am using this time for leisure. Pardon me as I blog once or twice less per day, or perhaps appear on the site a little later than usual. There was a time last year when I felt I was going to collapse and drop dead, which didn’t entirely make me feel bad; and THAT was the problem. If you don’t feel bad about suddenly dropping dead — you have a problem.

Maybe some of this stuff has to do with getting older. I am 43 now and I started blogging here in my 20s. Things look different when you’re younger — a fool running rampant with his dick out trying to show the world how big it is. There are complexities that go ignored and details that are never even noticed. I did not intend to get philosophical on you in a blog titled “I’ve Gone Out and Acquired a Portfolio of Shit” — but it happens sometimes. I do not plan my blogs and always write via a stream of consciousness.

I started reading a new book now, after finishing the lunatic nonsense called “Jurgen.” Jurgen was a 1920s smash hit and risqué for the time, a personal favorite of Zelda Fitzgerald. I enjoyed it thru 100 pages, especially when he cut off the head of his wife, but then it lost me in a nonsensical tale of fantasy. The book I am reading now is called The Long Goodbye, by Raymond Chandler. He all but invented the gumshoe detective, noir style writing — tough private eye on the beat punching people in the mouth for looking at him sideways.

The fascinating thing about Chandler, he started writing in the 1930s, after losing his oil field job during the Great Depression. He started writing at 44, which is old for a writer. He had a legendary career in spite of his lateness to the field and left the world with an impressive body of work.

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Extricated Myself from the Gillette Razor Racket

For thousands of years men have been shaving their faces with sharp blades. They cost next to nothing. Then in 1989 Gillette stopped making DE (doubled edged) razors in favor of their SHIT-BRAND disposable crap, accompanied by a marketing blitz that would change the face of men forever. Your Grandfather had it right and you’ve been brainwashed into believing spending $100 on replacement razors per quarter is normal. Fuck that.

I’ve always lamented the razor racket, having to pay fucking $40 for replaceable razors that were dull and cut my fucking face off when using them. Often times I’d avoid shaving, just because I hated the experience. Little did I know, I was being tricked and bamboozled into a brand of consumerism that is as ridiculous as it seems.

Nowadays, men shave their faces like morons, with this.


Absolute shit, absolutely

You wrestle with the fucking hard plastic casing, pull the fucker out, and shave your face as fast as possible, cutting and slicing the whole way. I sometimes feel like I need a blood transfusion after using one of those absolute fuckers.

Not too long ago I decided to investigate shaving and came across the DE razor again and decided to give it a whirl. First of all, the weapon is decidedly prettier.


INDEUD

Next, there is a ritualistic quality to it, unlike the rushed Gillette-Barbasol nonsense that we’ve been trained to adhere to. I bought some quality shaving cream (below), a god damned mixing cup, a brush, and some great aftershave lotion.


Not my faggot picture, fuck off

I’m not getting paid by any of the fuckers above, but tell you these things out of the kindness of my black heart. The net result will be, and believe me when I tell you this, a much closer shave, and infinitely more enjoyable experience. You have one fucking face — treat it good.

One thing of note, when using a DE razor, you cannot simply run the blade down your face like you would a Gilette. You’ll cut your face to ribbons like that. Might I suggest watching a short video on how to shave your face properly, using short strokes?

 

Thank me later.

Oh, did I mention the cost to shave your face just went down by 99%?

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The Biotech Run is Long in the Tooth; Time to Move On

This morning I presided over a position in BLUE go green to red, ended up booking me an 11% loss. If not for my position in ZM, today would truly be a doomful day. The run in the biotech sector has been terrific and profitable, but it’s long in the tooth and very likely to top out soon — leaving you there holding the bag.

Honestly, I have little motivation to add heavy exposure to the market here, currently 85-90% in cash. I am, however, looking at the trash heap of the market for bargains, which sometimes run higher after tax loss selling happens. There are a wide array of stocks down 20% or more for the year and maybe they’ll get their turn soon. Maybe not. One can never know for sure.

ENTER MORGAN STANLEY, actual fuck heads.

Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson writes that the brokerage still favors defensive, reliable stock picks and a choosier philosophy as investors look to 2020.

“We still think the greatest risk in the equity market remains in growth stocks where expectations are too high and priced,” he tells clients.

A healthy nonfarm payrolls print sparked a 337-point surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday, with stocks closing just below record highs.

There is a healthy hatred of this market, so be careful barreling in sloppily into your Christmas tree.

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Assessing the Present Situation, Candidly

Several months ago all of you were tripping over yourselves to get some CBD stocks. Hedge funds sprang up out of the trash, procuring money from unseasoned wastrels. It was supposed to cure everything and indeed it did for a period of time, up until people got bored with it and sold everything. That’s the problem with fads or hot trends, they fade and with it the idiot class of investor grows wearisome and then retires back into bankruptcy protection. Let this be a lesson to all of you traders out there, attempting to earn a living by managing the letters and numbers — hot stocks are temporary phenomenons, always. Case in point, TLRY and BYND — from fags to fags — gone.

The past month has marked a resurgence in health care providers — which in turn has lit a fire in biotechs — another one of those hot sectors to sell into rallies. Aside from healthcare, tankers have gone up and other sub-par groups — casting technology stocks to the sidelines in many trading accounts. The lauded and praised SAAS sector has been left for dead, only traded a few times the past month with any notable strength. Semis have also been MEH in the big scheme of things, which leads me to my next question.

With all of these shit sectors running hot, are we nearing the top? Are we setting up for a January execution? It would not be the first time. I recall vividly during January of 2004 getting my brains blown out in semis, and then I made a crushing in January of 2008 when market capsized and went out for the count. Bear in mind, and listen to me now, the market of December is not the market you need to pay attention to. It’s the details that matter, when the real trading begins in earnest — January of 2020.

My best guess is for a rally, but as always, I am prepared for all eventualities. There is much to fear, after all. Balance sheets are leveraged as fuck, share buybacks are out of control, and there is a general complacency and malaise amidst the Wall Street elite. Why, I would not be surprised, or bothered in the least, to see several of their heads removed from their bodies, watching as they tumble down the cobblestones of Stone St, washed away with the blood of the greedy. There are so many great banana eating experts these days, fat slovenly men sucking the dick of an automatic bull market, pretending to have talent. Fuck you and your charts, Sir, they will mean nothing in the coming fires.

Happy Sunday.

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Citi Increases Target For $SPY, Warns of Higher Taxes, Regulations if Democrats Seize Power

This is all but declaring Trump the winner in the 2020 elections. Barring a last minute throw down by Hillary Clinton, it appears Trump is going to cut off the dicks of all democratic candidates, including Elizabeth Warren. I must admit to finding happiness in the fact that she’s still in the running, adding a little color to an otherwise all white democratic field. Unbelievably racist.

Citi is upping their targets for the S&P 500.

Citi raised its year-end 2020 S&P 500 target slightly to 3,375 from 3,300 because of the better gains this year versus its 3,050 objective for 2019.

The bank cautioned, however, that higher taxes and tighter regulation are likely next year if the Democrats win the White House.

A Donald Trump re-election would bring its own risks of unpredictable policy on trade, diplomatic relations and global order, the bank wrote.

“The elections backdrop remains a major uncertainty overhang, even though the last year of a presidential cycle tends to generate respectable returns,” Citi wrote.

We already know what Trump is going to do — fuck with China, cause newspaper sales to soar, and increase the importance of Twitter. In a Democratic regime, one could expect Greta Thunberg to be the Secretary of State and water pressure to decrease to a drip.

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