Xmas season is almost gone. Most sane men are losing their minds now with the wives and their gratuitous spending. I’ve always declared Scrooge did nothing wrong. The man has gotten a bad rap all of these years, wantonly supported by people who want your coin by way of selling you their wares. The good man, the honorable Scrooge, only wanted to be industrious and frugal. You cannot be more holier than that. To live in excess and depravity is sinful. It wasn’t Ebenezer’s fault because Tiny Tim’s parents were fucking morons. I looked over my bank receipts yesterday and felt sick to my stomach. Next thing you know it’s February and I’m guilted into expensive Valentine’s Day items. This shit never ends. All I want to do is be industrious, save and invest my money, create an Orbital Space Cannon (OSC). But instead of all that, I buy baubles and trinkets and stock stuffers.
It has been a hard year for the oil patch — but all of that might be coming to an end soon. WTI is above $60 and ’tis the season for crude, seasonally speaking. Judging by historical returns for the sector, owning oil from Jan-April makes all the sense in the world.
The House has voted to remove Donald John Trump from office, the third President in American history to be maligned in such a way, paving the way for a Senate non-show down which will render this entire fiasco pointless. It’s worth noting, Bill Clinton was impeached on 12/19/98, just 1 day ahead of Mr. Trump.
Nasdaq futures are +10, because no one gives a shit.
Earlier today, Drumpf was tweeting up a storm, nothing new so far.
….won’t convict and remove the President – Then the House should not be Impeaching the President in the first place. If this is the new standard, every President from here on out is impeachable.” Andy McCarthy @FoxNews So well stated. Thank you!
Is this news? Sadly, it is not. I sense this is one of many humiliation tactics employed by those in charge, malevolent little people with big egos and a mean spirited disposition. With the election just a year away, this entire process is in fact a giant waste of time.
Here is the entire front page of CNBC right now. These are the relevant stories of today. As a stupid trader, how does one benefit from all of this?
As traders, the only thing you need to monitor is the 10yr bond. Nothing more, nothing less.
We’re ticking higher again, north of 1.92%, up 3bps, because MUH the economy is strong and nothing can stop us. But it won’t be long until the whites in everyone’s eyes show and people are shocked into submission, as interest expenses soar, biting hard into operations — causing a panic amidst the leveraged loan community of like minded investors. You need to steel yourselves for this eventuality. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in all this abstract it is humans love a good drama, and often manifest one’s destiny towards it. You might be living high off the hog at one moment, destitute and homeless the next. It’s important to savor the good times and truly marinate yourselves in the oils of success when they are present.
When the SPY is +25% for the year, everyone is an expert. You get fat deli slobs throwing comments around lazily, and with haste — talking about SPY performance and software delays. When the truth is far more easier to comprehend. During periods of excess, men like me are blunt instruments — tools if you will — to improve performance. But you do not need me. I am merely a sounding board. Anyone could’ve made coin in 2019, even retarded chimps. But when the fires burn bright and very hot, I become indispensable, equal to an oxygen mask inside of a vacuum chamber. You will find yourselves lost and without an oar, as the sea swallows you whole and fucks you into the bottom of the ocean. Sea horses will gnaw at your faces and the jellyfish will electroshock your eyeballs until they are good and gone. Then you will see the benefit of befriending a Space Alien Magician (SAM), such as myself. The hubris of man, eventually, will lead to his complete destruction. At said time, I intend to oversee said collapse and profit handsomely from it.
Until then, trade with spirit and keep a calm disposition about yourselves, for these are the days of men, the time and the place when coin had been multiplied many times over — all thanks and praise to the Federal Reserve. Amen.
Back in the 80’s no one, and I mean no one, curbed their dogs. You took the dog out, while smoking a cigarette, and oversaw him/her shitting right on the sidewalk and you’d walk away from it — hoping someone would come and step in it, maybe slip and fall too. You could be talking to someone outside their home and your dog could be shitting on their walkaway or lawn and it was not a big deal. You walked away from it without remorse or feeling like you did something wrong. Stepping in dog shit was part of life back then. As a young boy, I must’ve stepped in shit 100 times. I’d scrape the bottom of my sneakers best I could and then run back home for supper. My grandfather would say “you brought dog-shit into the house?” And I’d reply “maybe so — but where’s supper?” He’d then tell me to “put those shoes outside” and I’d do it and then we’d eat. No big deal. A normal sidewalk in Brooklyn, back in the 80s, was absolutely bombarded by shit. Riding on your bicycle was truly a test of skill, attempting to weave out of the way of all the piles of shit. Believe me, many a tire slipped into it — sending the bike rider headlong into the concrete curb.
There’s a trade in there somewhere.
Stocks are drifting higher. My trading account is doing fine — much better than @NitJain’s or @Diddy’s — because both of them are terrible terrible traders.
I was 100% long into today, full moon and dick out running in the green fields and free and brave man. However, seeing that some of my equities were sharply higher, I decided to liquidate them and raise a little cash. I only made one purchase today, in the oil sector — because oil is going to run like a god damned jackal in early 2020.
Here is today’s bounty.
PD +4.8%
NOAH +6%
SQM +5.6%
DAN +4.1%
SWKS +3.8%
See pal, that’s who I am. I do not promise any of my members of Exodus to learn how to trade. That would be like going to a brain surgeon with a malady and asking him to not operate, but instead teach you how to operate to remove the problem. This is stupid and a waste of time. While in my company, you will receive the most export and pristine financial advice known to mankind. Some might argue they’re better than me, but they’d be lying — believe me.
We’ve enjoyed a wonderful runaway market the past decade, as well as a wide divergence between those able to buy stocks or not. If not for the assistance of central banks around the world, everything you see around you might very possibly have been burnt to a golden red cinder. Alas, our heroes at the Fed have answered our prayers each and every night, thru more than 50 rates cuts and $4 trillion in balance sheet expansion.
The ECB faced their crisis in 2012 and looked Greece into their beady black eyes and said “whatever it takes”, then expanding their balance sheet by $2.5 trillion. Bonds for all.
The Japanese, still reeling from their 1990s blowup, went hogwild, putting an end to their currency implosion and expanded their balance sheet by $4.5 trillion.
All in all, central banks have placed $11 trillion into capital markets and they’re not done yet. The US tried to liquidate and even hike rates, but that quickly dissipated and now we’re cutting and doing QE again.
“The central banks were sucked into a world they never wanted to be in,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economic research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Then, central banks figured out this is the new world we’re in and we have to find new tools to promote growth. They went from reluctant participants in international policy to eagerly embracing it.”
I suspect we’re cross the rubicon line, the point of no return, which will continue thru the new roaring 20s — giving way to a most horrendous crash in ’29 and depression throughout the 30’s. Maybe we’ll get bailed out by some spectacular war by ’38 to stem the tide. In the meantime, prepare for good times, faggot parties, and lots and lots of celebratory champagne.
Pictures communicate best with humans, which is why the cavemen painted idiot pictures inside of their caves. You can print this out and tape it to the wall. It will be your guide.
I talked about the period of “nothing ever happens” last week and this remains the case as the Federal Reserve is obviously bailing out markets/institutions without admitting to it.
Just today the WSJ reported the Fed injected another $86 billion of liquidity into a repo market that apparently has gone haywire and dried up.
An alert for you permanent bull faggots out there, my boy Tyler has gone all in on this story, reporting on it regularly. You might loathe him for his end of world doomsday ways, but the man knows his shit. So pay attention.
One week ago we quoted from Wilson’s latest weekly report, in which the now quasi-bullish strategist explained why he had grudgingly turned bullish, saying “we continue to see the 3 largest central banks in the world expand their balance sheets at the rate of $100B per month ($60B from the Fed, $25B from the ECB and $15B from the BOJ).” As a reminder, several years ago, Citi’s fixed income guru Matt King said that it takes $200 billion in quarterly liquidity injections across all central banks to prevent a market crash, and lo and behold we are now well above that bogey.
Wilson continued, pointing out that “as part of our year ahead outlook published a few weeks ago, we cited this excessive liquidity as a reason why we thought the S&P 500 could trade well above our bull case year end target of 3250 while this policy action persists. As of right now, it appears that the Fed, ECB and BOJ will continue at this pace through the first quarter of next year.”
The Morgan Stanley strategist then also laid out how central banks directly affect risk assets, noting that “the central bank transmission mechanism is via suppressed volatility” and ading that “the recent actions by the Fed were intended to reduce volatility in the repo market but it’s also had the effect of reducing the volatility in risk markets.” Little did Wilson know that just a few days later, the Fed would announce a record $490 billion in year-end liquidity backstops in the form of expanded overnight and term repos to avoid a year-end repo market crisis and to keep repo rates low on Monday when about $100 billion in systemic liquidity would be drained as explained previously.
It should be noted the market has been running higher in lock-step with FOMC commitments.
Morgan Stanley summarizes:
The approximately $100B/month of balance sheet expansion from the big three central banks (Fed, ECB and BOJ) is now being further enhanced by the Fed’s overnight repo operations which are expected to increase to $490B by year end. In short, we don’t expect any liquidity issues between now and year end with that kind of money flooding the system. And, while the repo operations won’t have a direct impact on risk markets, we do think the Fed’s $60B of bill purchases and the ECB and BOJ QE operations are absolutely suppressing volatility across most risk markets, including equities…
Bottom line: we no longer have a free market. It is fucking rigged to the bone. Rates are artificially low and 50% of share buybacks are being financed by debt, which is reducing share count and causing IARs to bully their clients into “cheap” stocks — which are cheap due to share buybacks. It is the biggest Ponzi scam of all time and when it blows up — you will rue the day you were conceived. Nevertheless, we’re not ready to blow up just yet. As a matter of fact, all of this rigging is bullish for stocks because the riggers are 100% in control. Alas, pay attention to the small details when said gents lose control. That will, inexorably, be discussed in greater detail inside of the hallowed halls of Exodus. Before year end, spend some of your soft dollars and join the league of Distinguished Gents.
For the past two years investors have been given terrible advice from little finance people online, typing really fast into their computers. Without question, these people have no idea what it’s like to innovate and build businesses and are butt-hurt for political reasons. Little keyboard politicians changing the world, one exclamation mark at a time. Low IQ reprobates have been warning of doom regarding Musk and his leadership, which, by the way, has translated into a 75% gain the past 6 months.
Business Insider has been the very worst of the group — the #TSLAQ gang hellbent on creating discord between Musk and shareholders.
Net net, they’ve been proven wrong and no one with an IQ north of 100 is surprised. Bet against the guy building space rockets or with the little person blogging drunk?
You TSLAQ fuckers need to fuck off. Go bet against a paper company or a criminal organization run by chemical barons.
For the day, I bought a slew of stocks, sold BIDU for a 6.3% gain, and find myself 100% long into the close.
Growing up in the tar pits of Brooklyn, I have a keen sense for when to drill for oil and when not to. I was raised under the hammering of oil rigs. I’d go to sleep with fire burning bright in the Brooklyn sky, as my family drilled thru the tar sands and into the black gold below. Sometimes we’d hit gas and blow up a few square miles of homes, but it was all worth it in the end.
In recent years I’ve had great difficulty trading oil stocks, mainly because of the present state of the industry. It is dead, for lack of a more elegant term. Gone are the halcyon days of $140 crude, when men like me could walk onto his porch, light a bulldog pipe, and oversee his vast empire of derricks mechanically placing money into my purse (no homo). Nowadays you have to work hard for it, claw and bite your fellow man for a few million barrels of light sweet.
It just so happens that I have very sharp teeth and even sharper finger nails.
Starting last week, like a burglar in the night, I initiated a position in a well known oil company. Today, I bought a much smaller one. Over the next few weeks, I intend to secretly accumulate shares in a variety of oil companies, leading to Le Fly becoming, once again, an oil man of esteemed proportions. My name will be synomous with oil, just as Zerohedge is with bear and Business Insider to shit.
