IT’S HAPPENING AGAIN: YIELD CURVE INVERTS; COUNTDOWN TO RECESSION STARTS NOW

Apologies for the tardiness. I was up past 5am packing my house for the big move and hadn’t realized how much shit I had accumulated — truly disgusting and appalling. I am never going to buy anything again. I wish I could say the same for my wife, who simply cannot help herself and must hoard all of the items from all of the stores. When does it end? Does it ever?

Markets are careening lower and you’re all on the edge of your seats, eagerly awaiting my assessment. It’s very grim.

The 10yr is at 1.58%, down 9bps.

Oil is crashing, down 4%.

Gold is spiking, just like I said it would.

Stocks are down more than 500.

Time to seek safer harbors.

“The U.S. equity market is on borrowed time after the yield curve inverts,” wrote Bank of America technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier.

Yesterday I bought CRWD for an overnight hundred dollar roll trade. I do not even know how it opened up — since I was deep into REM sleep. I fucked up and ended selling it for a 5% loss. It was an overnight trade, so rules are rules — you sell no matter the outcome. It does not become an investment — just because it’s down. I lost, so I move on.

I still have a triple inverse hedge on the books, so that’s cushioning my decline — plus all of that fucking gold too. Damn I’m good.

This is who I am and you’re nothing.

Early this morning after seeing the market blast the fuck off, I stepped in and bought some China-coms, knowing sloppy jalopy traders in the US would ebb into them and chase them higher. The thousand strong man militia inside Exodus enjoyed these alerts, unlike the lot of you miscreants.

I bought JD and BZUN, amongst others. I just sold JD and BZUN for a 4.74% and 3.7% profit, respectively.

Others try to duplicate my success, but fall woefully short.

In summary of today’s trades:

JD +4.74%. (day trade)
BZUN +3.7% (day trade)
MDLA +7.43% (overnighter)

Fly wins again.

For the past year, morons have been talking about yield curve inversion for fucked up time frames — but not to do with 2s and 10s aka the only yield spread that counts. Well here we are — INVERSION DAY — and faggots are out strong buying stocks with their cocks.

Bear in mind, INVERSION has predicted the last 7 recessions without flaw.

By my math, by next year this time you will be dying off the vine, thirsting for more QE dick. Today is a grande day for stocks — but it will not last!

Big balled rally today. My gold stocks are getting lit the fuck up. Normally under such conditions, I’d consider getting rid of them. After all, this is a trading account, not a buy and hold. HOWEVER, I do believe lesser men sell gold here. I do believe that if you sell your gold here, on such a stupid fucking day, you deserve to die.

Also, I have just 1 inverse ETF on the books, everything else is long or in cash.

Regarding the cash, I allocated back into stocks about an hour ago — trades only given inside Exodus now — because electronics are apparently off the table when it comes to trade wars. Apparently, video game consoles are a matter of national security.

I bought an American name and several Chinese.

Do we hold these gains and build from here? Who fucking knows? But the timing of this bullshit news seems suspect AF, right when the 2s and 10s were going to invert — BAM! — out comes the USTR chicanery. My sense is you don’t bet against Trump’s stock market for an extended period of time. But he deserves a market calamity more than any President in the history of America.

That being said, shit looks good now.

Yesterday’s overnight trade was MDLA — booked it for +7.4%.

The USTR announced cell phones were a product of grave national security and have subsequently taken them off the Trump tariff list. So instead of forcing Tim Apple to produce phones here, Trump got Les Grossman’d by Tim — flatly told to STFU and to exclude them from his trade war, otherwise he’d go down there and lay down scorched earth on his orange rug. He laid down the law, more or less.

The United States Trade Representative office said Tuesday certain items were being removed from the new China tariff list because of “health, safety, national security and other factors” while tariffs on other items would be delayed until December 15.

The products in the group that will have tariffs delayed include “cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing,” the USTR said.

Markets were weak. The 2 and 10yr bonds were about to invert. Now we’re up 400 and shorts are getting their faces blown the fuck off — courtesy of Apple — your savior and Lord.

Real quick late night back of the envelope food for thoughts analysis.

Back when gold was there shit, the price to sales ratio for RGLD was 22.8, presently 18.

The miners aren’t really priced for higher gold, in all actuality. As a point in fact, at 18x sales, RGLD is still 20-25 points cheap, according to the last valuation assigned to it during the last bull market in gold. In spite of the fact RGLD is +50% for the year, it’s still 20% undervalued. Some of the junior miners are 50-100% undervalued, based on historical comparisons.

Bottom line: get your dicks out and start going to work on these miners. Whenever the dip, pounce on them. If they rise and appreciate, sit back and smoke your estate pipe. DO NOT SELL. Only morons sell gold in the 2nd inning of an extra inning ballgame.

Good night, fucked faces.

I get a lot of pushback from you fuckers who want the party to keep going — cocaine fueled rampages throughout this economy of shit — all because of selfish reasons. I, on the other hand, want this to crash and fucking burn, for selfless reasons. I am completely detached from personal gain on this one and only want to see the Dow 10,000 points lower for the sake of my great grandchildren.

You selfish butt-plungers are just in this for a fast buck, then off to your parties and extravagant limousine lifestyles. “The Fly” is a man of steel, for the people, doing things for the people. The market is filled with froth and angst, inequality, and racism — which is why we need to crash eet now — leaving no survivors.

Sure, you can foray into the bids and profit from dips. You might even get to invest in an idea that pans out, like Tesla, and make a bundle. But the pyramid, lads, is upside down. The demographics are fucked, and so are the financials.

Starting tomorrow, I expect the market to buzz-saw the fuck lower.

Am I selling my stocks now?

Not all of them, for I am not retarded. But I do have cash and I am hedging. If you’re not thinking about playing defense with the 10yr at 1.64%, you’re mentally stupid and do not belong in this game here.

Listen to me: I am a Master Ace Stock Trade, doing fucking barrel rolls in the sky — defying the laws of gravity, providing the people in Exodus with stocks picks with balls the size of elephants. I lose some, but I win a lot more. If my intuition is telling me to sell short, I’ll do that. Do you know why — because that’s what winners do. We simply follow the trends and profit from the pain and misfortune of others.

In short, gold is the shit.

The 10 yr treasury is down almost 10bps to 1.64%. This is Great Depression styled deflation, yet no one seems to care. In classic credit meltdown mode, a South American country blew the fuck up. Contagion is next.

Hong Kong is going to be attacked by China and Trump is going to bomb Beijing with our poisonous hogs. This is all very biblical shit, yet we’re barely off the highs because so many of you fat fucks buy dips. You just can’t help yourselves.

But a serious and pointed question needs to be pointed to you.

Is this the end of western finance as we know it and is gold the only logical investment for gentlemen of Wall Street?

In case you have some friends in Argentina, just know they’re all poor now, unless they were short stocks heading into today. The Merval is down more than 30%. Their banks trading here cut in half. Their currency is for shit — off by 25%.

This has resulted in a minor blip of a sell off here, 250 points, which most believe is due to the protests in Hong Kong.  As for me, I booked an 8.4% profit in DOYU and a 3% loss in LK — a win by my standards. No big deal.

Going forward, I am 25% cash, 25% gold — waiting in the tall grass for fresh meat (no homo).

No one gives a shit about Argentina.

BONUS

Prices on Argentina's 100-year bonds are in free fall. pic.twitter.com/FfkExKWCpj

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) August 12, 2019

The entire country is Hong Kong is melting the fuck down — because they really want our brand of Epstein-esque freedom — the same type of freedom so liberally delivered to Iraq and Afghanistan and many other countries who were fortunate enough to see the barrels of our tanks.

A little background, China has accused the US of fanning the flames — responsible for these protests.

A Chinese media shill posted a picture of a US agent meeting with Hong Kong protesters.

Embarrassing! The black hand was caught red-handed! Leaders of "HK independence" organization met with Julie Eadeh of US Consulate General in HK. She is a subversion expert at the State Department. The Chinese people are not afraid of evil, nor are they afraid of causing trouble. pic.twitter.com/svtrbJC0Z8

— Lijian Zhao ??? (@zlj517) August 8, 2019

What does it all mean? THE ART OF THE FUCKING DEAL!!!

“The bear is alive and kicking. We think the failed breakout last week for the S&P 500 confirms we are still mired in a cyclical bear market,” Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note on Monday.

The escalated U.S.-China trade war rattled the markets last week with the Dow posting a loss of 0.75%. Major stock averages suffered their worst days of the year on Aug. 5 after China allowed its currency to drop against the dollar below a key level unseen since 2008.

The intensified tensions caused Goldman Sachs to lower its fourth-quarter growth forecast by 20 basis points to 1.8% as the firm no longer expects a trade deal before the 2020 election.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday set its daily midpoint for yuan trading at 7.0211 per dollar, the third consecutive session below the psychological level of 7 per dollar. It was also weaker than Friday’s session, but beat market expectations.

Dow futures -205. We’re fucked.

UPDATE: Argentinian FUD released!

MSCI Argentina ETF plunges 23% at the open, Argentine peso falls 20% after President Mauricio Macri performed poorly in primary electionshttps://t.co/kkhJ2iLZyc pic.twitter.com/kkUZffPCJz

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) August 12, 2019