DON’T FADE CRUDE

WTI is off to a roaring start, higher by 12% to $61. Brent is up 13.5% to 68.2. Also, gold is up nearly 1%, which is both notable and exceptional.

The knee-jerk reaction tomorrow will be to sell crude short — because you’re all fucking geniuses and able to time tops and bottoms. Truth is, no one knows what the fuck is going on, other than uncertainty abounds. This is not an environment to fade crude. This is what short squeezes are made from.

Dow futs are -150 — but I doubt it’ll last. I’ll be trading like a motherfucker tomorrow inside Exodus.

Look at how stupid we all are, falling for the olde war in the Middle East gambit. Meanwhile, we have limitless supply of crude at home and in our attic, aka Canada.

Nevertheless, this is the narrative that will now be trotted out. You should expect to see sharply higher crude prices for a sustained period of time.

WSJ:

Yet Saturday’s attack could be more significant than that. Technology from drones to cyberattacks are available to groups like the Houthis, possibly with support from Saudi Arabia’s regional rival Iran. That major energy producer, facing sanctions but still shipping some oil, has both a political and financial incentive to weaken Saudi Arabia. The fact that the actions ostensibly were taken by a nonstate actor, though, limits the response that the U.S. or Saudi Arabia can take. Attempting to further punish Iran is a double-edged sword, given that pinching its main source of revenue, also oil, would further inflame prices.

While the redundancies in Saudi oil infrastructure mean that output may be restored as soon as Monday, the attack could build in a premium to oil prices that has long been absent due to complacency. Indeed, traders may now need to factor in new risks that threaten to take not hundreds of thousands but millions of barrels off the market at a time. U.S. shale production may have upended the world energy market with nimble output, but the market’s reaction time is several months, not days or weeks, and nowhere near enough to replace several million barrels.

Zerohedge has the coverage. I’m merely a trading fool with a sharp intent to gamble in stocks until I die. This is very reminiscent of Hurricane Katrina. Any of you fuckers remember that?

Oh, it was sublime — not the death and destruction part, but the rise in oil and especially natural gas. Stocks were fucking ripping out spines and tits to the upside. The initial move was grande, but it lasted a solid week — with plenty of money to be made for Johnny Come Latelys. I suspect, we will see the same type of trading action next week, as the world tries to adapt to 5 million barrels per day being stricken from their reservoir of oil. It is going to be outrageous.

Brief snippet from WSJ:

A coordinated drone strike hit at the heart of Saudi oil production on Saturday, sparking an enormous blaze and forcing the kingdom to shut down about half of its crude output, according to people familiar with matter.

Iran-alled Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen claimed responsibility for what would be one of their largest-ever attacks inside the kingdom.

The Saudi production shutdown amounts to a loss of about five million barrels a day, the people said, roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude oil. The kingdom produces 9.8 million barrels a day.

I don’t care who did it. I would not be surprised to learn they did it to themselves, on the heels of Saudi Aramcos IPO. What I am interested in are the consequences. People are throwing out scandalous numbers like $100bbl next week. Fuck all of that. This is a temporary shut-down, but it can last weeks. My back of the envelope prediction suggests crude will easily Jimmy up to $75 next week and sustain those levels — because the market is going to interrupt these attacks as a permanent risk to Saudi oil production. Having said that, you’re gonna want to get long a fuck load of crude stocks, especially those evil frackers, into the melee.

I’ve had this fucking DICK TEA (DTEA) for a long time, always falling back on the notion that this piece of shit Canadian retailer would need some sort of business disruption to save itself from getting BOGGED. That disruption should come in the form of drugs, cannabis tea. I’m sitting on this fucker, waiting for news to break.

Long from $1.39 and I doubled up above $2, at these levels — zero fucks given because the Gods favour me and I know it.

So many moving parts today, as I swished out of APRN for a 12% 30 min sojourn, in addition to gains in BYND, STMP and AVP. I’m sitting in a few fast runners, waiting for them to Ben Johnson the fuck out of my portfolio.

We’re all hobbits now in a post Orc world, sashaying throughout the prairie eating strawberries and cream.

The curious case of We Work isn’t the proposed valuation of $47 billion, but instead why lead investment banks were’t able to price it at those levels. Over the past decade, these fucking banks have dumped one bullshit VC deal on the public after the other. Now, all of a sudden, they found religion?

What in the fuck is going on here?

Via Reuters:

WeWork owner The We Company may seek a valuation in its upcoming initial public offering of between $10 billion and $12 billion, a dramatic discount to the $47 billion valuation it achieved in January, people familiar with the matter said on Friday.

The deliberations indicate that WeWork does not feel confident that the corporate governance changes it unveiled on Friday will be enough to woo investors concerned about its lack of a path to profitability.

The sources cautioned that no decision has been made and asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. WeWork did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

For you home gamers, that’s a 78% discount from private valuation “models” or a $37 billion haircut.

Some of the perks of being a member in the hallowed halls of Exodus.

For you home gamers, that 11.95% in 30 mins — for an annualized return of 1 billion percent. I am quite literally the best trader alive.

Why are trades only being offered inside Exodus now?

Because I gave them here for free for over a 12 years. I gave you fuckers a 12 year free trial and now that has come to an abrupt end. If you want access to one of the best god damned minds in finance, you’ll need to FORK UP $1.36 per day — you absolute fucking grifters.

I’m back to my same old routine of banking coin with ease and grace, the sort of poise one would expect from a gentleman of extreme proportions. I am to stock trading what Cary Grant was to male aesthetics. You can dick around and Humphrey Bogart your way thru life, punching people in the nose and tricking women with booze and cash to ingratiate your carnal desires, or you can simply Cary Grant the fucker and order suckling on demand.

What in the fuck am I talking about?

Why learn to trade? You people are ill equipped to do anything, let alone figure out high finance. To become good, an actual expert in something, you need at least 10,000 hours of practice. You have a better chance of dying in a fire than becoming proficient at this shit.

I OFFER YOU FISH.

Instead of learning, why not feed off the crumbs that fall off my grande table? I pick winners on a consistent basis and am rarely wrong on large directional moves. With my new Grande Druid rituals in place, nothing can stop me.

Today’s winnings.

AVP +4.3%
STMP +2.7%
BYND +2.3%

I took the BYND for an overnight gambit, the other two were 2 or 3 day holds.

I’m interested in short squeezes now, but have ~40% cash. I think the late stage rallies like this are the best, optimal opportune ahead!

I woke up in a miserable mood this morning, angry at the sun, the fucking dew on the grass and most definitely the fucking dogs. I used to be a dog person, up until I had some dogs. Now I gaze upon them in amazement, at how something so stupid can be viewed as wonderful. Don’t get me wrong, DOGFAGS, dogs are funny — real fucking knee slappers, up until the point they piss your bed and shit your rugs. And I know, that burden lies with the owner to properly train the dog, by locking it up in cages and wielding power moves over it with small pieces of fucking food. But if you’re not into that sort of thing, you get to clean up shit. Also, you get to walk two animals around town that attack everything in sight. Funny thing, they attack everything out of fear, so scared they’re afraid fo defecate in public, else some sort of lion might sneak up from behind and eat them up.

After the walk, I attempted to make myself a proper French omelette, but failed. The omelette got twisted and I got pissed off and ditched my efforts of perfection in exchange for stuffing my face with two eggs. I also made some dark roast coffee, French press of course, which is now lukewarm to cold. Nothing is worse than this beverage I am drinking now.

At least I have some classical music to soothe the savage beast in me, which is, by the way, intermittently interrupted by one of my fucking dogs barking at her shadow.

My JDST position was sold at the loss today — because I was under the ASSumption that gold had resumed its upward path. I even went as far as to buy some gold and silver miners. All of that was wrong, since gold gave up the gains and the 3x downside gold miner faggot of an ETF soared.

Not only did I misread the move today, I doubled down on my retardation by executing long bets.

The truth is laid bare, “The Fly” is yesterday, the one who knew gold miners were heading lower, is appreciably smarter than this rancid version, counterfeit and a fraud.

What to do now?

Just sit here and wait.

I am selling any losers on the books that aren’t moving with this tape. I booked a wash in one and -3.2% in another. Sure, I have stocks climbing and net net, I am making money. Let’s not forget, my Quant represents 75% of my investable money. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention losing on trades like this saps the life out of me and sends me into hibernation.

I’ve been long gold, on and off, since November of 2018. Last week I sold near the top and felt powerful, like my balls were made from steel, impervious to the market. So I got fancy and took a short position on gold, via JDST.

Today I got my pants lit on fire and, subsequently, my balls.

I sold JDST on this gold spike for an 8% loss. I also added two gold stocks on the long side to my trading account.

The lesson to be learned here, and I’ve already learned this lesson a few dozen times before and will probably learn it again a few dozen times before I go, is to avoid being fancy with trades.

Do you like AAPL?

Good, then don’t ever short it, no matter what. It’ll just conflict you and end up robbing you of your spirit.

Moving on, stocks look soft, but I’m brazenly optimistic for something wonderful to happen soon.