iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,430 Blog Posts

Markets Pricing in July Rate Cut — How’d We Get Here?

I’ll tell you how.

It’s Trump, that’s how. The man is obsessed with the fucking stock market and treats his position as means to plunge the market whichever direction is feels like it. He’s no different from one of those Robber Barons you’ve read about — operating outside of the law or within the law because the country was lawless, in order to build extreme wealth for the purposes of sport.

The surprisingly weak jobs report for May, with just 75,000 jobs created, shows that the resilient job market is now being hit by the same weakness cropping up in other parts of the economy.

Economists say it’s now likely the Fed will move to cut rates this year, possibly as early as July.

Treasury yields, which move opposite price, continued to fall sharply, and the futures market moved to price in an almost three-quarter point rate cuts by December.

Now we’re factoring in nearly a 100% chance of a July rate cut. Today’s jobs report pushed it over the ledge. What’s hilarious is as you go down the line towards December — the rate cuts get more and more severe — with some pricing in 100bps in rate cuts.

What else can I say? Markets haven’t been free for a long time. Now the manipulation is ribald and gauche and in your face, like a neon green summer jacket and it’s disgusting, but at the same time easy to see and even easier to pick pocket.

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9 comments

  1. fxtradepro

    Just think….another +2% worth of gains in the SP500, we’ll get our first ever rate cut at the All-Time Highs!! – now that’s rich!

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    • it is showtime
      it is showtime

      And what if they don’t deliver the conceptually lunatic cut?

      i think they know it – but they’re Really trapped

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  2. juice

    Trump is playing the markets like his fiddle: trashing them with trade wars galore and then ordering a shitty employment # to make Powell dance to his cuts tune. But he best not shoot his wad too early and run out of market-juicing gas too far ahead of the 2020 erections

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  3. snoozemr

    Well he did name his kid Baron

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  4. irma vep

    I’m curious. Fly, did you vote forTrump?

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  5. MSGT HARTMAN

    Day Traders bitching about the market at all time highs. That’s rich.

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  6. flea

    Good news is good news. Bad news is good news.

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