iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,477 Blog Posts

NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP CRUSHES XMAS

*** The Capstone Programme has 6 hours left and then I close the doors until someone drops out. Make an appointment today ***

It’s over SantaFAGS. Your accounts have been destroyed for Xmas. All of the money you spent on presents, washed away twice, once by the store, and then again by the market. You’re looking into the mirror, seeing the visage of a very ugly man. I know the look, having seen it myself on numerous occasions throughout my existence. I will say this to you, boldly and flatly, nothing is a given in this world — not life, nor food, not even a bull market.

TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR FINANCES.

Do not subjugate yourselves to the academic opinions of those in charge of this country. You have a stock and it’s barreling lower — sell it. The idea to buy should be rooted in the actuality that said asset is rising in price. Catch a falling knife — you’re gonna bleed.

I do not say this without a heavy heart — but I did fucking warn you. I did try my best to alert you to what I was seeing. Very few people are able to see the market the way I see it and I’ve always known that. You play the piano; I play the market. This is my specialty.

YOU DO NOT BUY UNTIL OIL GETS BACK INTO AN UPTREND.

Oil lower causes oil stocks to go down, which then causes high yield bonds to go down, which then causes panic in the market. That is the workflow you need to follow. No position should be greater than 5%. No loss should ever exceed 10%. No stock should be bought unless it’s in an uptrend. I can go on for another thousands words. For the love of stolen Xmas presents, stop inflicting wounds onto yourselves.

Merry Xmas you terrible disasters.

Ciao

Fly

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28 comments

  1. thehouse

    When does it end?

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    • Dr. Fly

      On a long enough timeline…

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      • sierra water

        Everything goes to zero?? Oh shit.. The Russians, the Chinese, the Fed… We need to build an IBank Nuclear shelter.. Maybe 200k sq ft underground in the Ozarks..

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  2. WrongView

    Sure feels like December 2007 all over again. We need a Salomon Bros, though.

    Maybe Mueller will go after Deutsche Bank?

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  3. Black Swan

    Another win for the image editing dept at ibankcoin.

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  4. it is showtime

    Endgame was September to January. Knew it and said it throughout. (a final parabolic vertical leg) That was confirmed with Crack 1. 1st week of Feb.

    Crack 1, meant final countdown. Once endgame ends, you’re looking for the final blow. All the logic, pointed to final countdown. As I said from Feb thru summer.

    With the until-then disallowed march above 3% 10yr in October, I said look out. Crack 2 soon follows. Crack 2, basically changes final countdown, to…elevated…for…Gameover.

    Elevated chance of Game Over is what I was phrasing in the few weeks after the start of Crack 2. Not game over but elevated chance. (making sure slow thinkers get it)

    The breach of Crack 1 and Crack 2 lows recently was a signal that it’s probably gameover. Got the go-ahead to be more emphatic. At least. So pucker up.

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    • numbersgame

      What the heck does “gameover” really mean?

      Are you saying that we might go all the way down to when you *first* called a market top? Wow, that WOULD be quite a crash.

      Back to reality:
      I’m a bear, but currently I’m 0% short, only holding longs (shoveled in at at 3:45pm) + cash right now. Why so confidant?

      1) We’ve had two days of VIX spike capitualtions. In fact, if it wasn’t for our Toddler President, we would likely have been up big today. That’s also the reason I’m not 80% long: he might do something else stupid over the weekend.
      2) We’ve had **7** straight days of down in SPY
      3) DOW has closed its worst week in a decade
      4) For those paying attention, you may have seem my post of Big money positioning mid-day https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2018/12/21/death-equities-high-yield-gets-smoked/#comment-556849

      Now check those numbers again. Big money again betting that we rally hard next week. I have no idea why a trader wouldn’t want to be long at this moment.

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      • it is showtime

        I’ll gather the comment links eventually

        Most of you aren’t connecting the evolving working theories of an investigative journalist.
        I have a communications degree from a top J school.
        Most of you don’t.

        The current timeline is pre-election to post-election. Stop being an idiot quoting tossed-salad Top Calls from 2013.
        The journaling I did separate from being a trader, but connected to being a permabear, in 3 stages were correct.

        Game over. It’s the “other side of the mountain”

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      • it is showtime

        *WAS
        journaling was
        correct
        3 stages were
        correct

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  5. roundwego

    Vix is prerty chill as the market crashes hard. So not a bottom.

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    • it is showtime

      Vix 30 baby. What a beaut.
      Sustained at 20 for weeks.
      Gotta watch but no corralling of the elevated level yet

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      • roundwego

        Vix Got to 30 target with 7% day rather than a blowoff top of 20%. So now the next target of 50-70 is possible. That means it’s the big one.

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  6. Rhino

    Tech peeps going bananas, everyone with an impending IPO that was looking to buy a house is thinking twice. Realtors Christmas ruined. #VXXTITS

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  7. heckler

    Great job profiting off the ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE choice of leadership that you helped usher in, Fly.

    You might truly be Evil, Motherfucker.

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    • it is showtime

      P.S. You’re forgetting that the US gov was infected&infested prior. LEADING TO the choice that was made.

      P.P.S The Dot Plot was most likely intended for Hrc as well. With the globalists in charge. It became forefront either Fall 15 or Spring 16

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      • Lyndon Keltner

        So, excuse the fools for their foolishness to make things worse because shit was already bad?

        At least the people who bought their Trump University diplomas got their partial refund. The said choice, however, is costing the whole planet *bigly* and the restitution (the slow death of the GOP) will take a very long time to be realized.

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    • chuck bennett

      Your truly a simpleton

      Regards

      Chuck Bennett

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      • Lyndon Keltner

        I hope “yours truly” isn’t, or *is* you?

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      • s.k.

        You mean a simpleton like someone who doesnt know the difference between your, and you’re?

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        • chuck bennett

          That comment was for Heckler.

          But yes, your , you’re. That’s funny too.

          Regular comedians

          Also, I can’t click the link because I only access this through my cell phone. So piss off with that shit, or just text me yo.

          Regards

          Chuck Bennett

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          • heckler

            Morning Chuck – I was just pissed off last night. It’s been a long week. In addition to suffering harrowing market losses the gov shut down but I still have to work… fucking bullshit

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          • chuck bennett

            That means you’re essential personnel.

            Be proud

            Regards

            Chuck Bennett

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  8. Lyndon Keltner

    As much as the market has dropped this week, I’m also seeing that the real capitulation has yet to happen. The lack of any reversal today *bigly* increased the probability of a 1000+ Dow-point plunge in the near future.

    Jesus literally won’t save the markets this Christmas. Not in time anyway.

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  9. moosh

    Turns out throwing a hand grenade on politicians and all of the fucked up things and ideas they continually expect to create problems for why they crave power, rather than solutions, sucks. Who knew?

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  10. the hungry dog

    Thanks for the Christmas tune Fly! However it did not seem to cheer anyone up. I’m an Old Man and there is one thing I know for sure. Things are never as Bad as they seem or as Good as they seem and what goes around comes around.

    Merry Xmas to All and wishing everyone a Happy, Healthy & Prosperous 2019!

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