iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,705 Blog Posts

TRADERS KILLED EN ROUTE TO NATIONAL FUNERAL

It’s over, fuckers. I want you to repeat after me and keep saying it until you believe it.

This is NOT a bull market.
This is NOT a bull market.
This is NOT a bull market.
This is NOT a bull market.
This is NOT a bull market.
This is NOT a bull market.
This is NOT a bull market.
This is NOT a bull market.

Got it?

High yield is an issue. With ~$3 trillion in BBB rated debt, about 10x what we had back in 2008, there is a distinct chance this crisis, once it gets going, will make 2008 look like a cake walk. No idea what a cake walk is — but it sounds easy. It’s important for you to understand, and listen to me very carefully, the infrastructure of the market and financial system HAS NOT IMPROVED since 2009. As a point in fact, at the lows of 2009, CALPers had 91% coverage on their pension. Today, post bull market, it’s at 68%.

If we get a persistent move lower, the already corrupt and bankrupted pension system will need to be bailed out. Corporate credit shrink and freeze up and anything high yield shattered to pieces. The negative feedback loop is the most important aspect of any market squall. Right now Quants are moving the market and I think it’s fair to say — they’re net sellers.

Trump had two magic bullets in his pistol: the Fed pause and China trade deal. Both have been shot and neutralized. Now the real danger is growth and lack thereof.

Heading into NATIONAL FUNERAL, I am 85% cash, 10% TZA.

In summary, we have ~$10 trillion in corporate debt that was borrowed during ZIRP period to do mergers and execute buybacks. Rates have gone up and now credit is tightening. HYG is more important than the SPY now.

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25 comments

  1. ferd

    We and our children will pay far more than Amazon’s $19.98 for Bernanke’s “Courage to Act”. Very sad.

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      Oh yah, let’s blame Greenspan too. And Arthur Burns. And Woodrow Wilson.

      Ron Paul 2020!!!

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      • ferd

        Learn about QE and how it was implemented and about how long the cost of money was kept down and about how it transferred wealth to the already asset-rich white guys …about how it resulted in mal-investment …about how creating this funny money enabled a whole bunch of wars against brown people without the political backlash that would have come about had we had to fund them with an honest tax.

        Doesn’t your fake black persona care?

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        • Lyndon Keltner

          Breh, I’m with you on sound money and Ron Paul and Ludwig von Mises and Austrian economics, nah mean?

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          • ferd

            Sorry if I mistook your intent. But I think that Bernanke’s focused pump to the asset-rich combined with the many wars that his FED helped enable, puts him in a class alone.

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          • Lyndon Keltner

            I was just bullshitting about Austrian economics. It is trash. XD

            And, sure, Bernanke loves the rich men. No surprise there. He was a brung to the Fed by a rich Republican white man, whose family did business with the real Nazis.

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          • chuck bennett

            Rich white man as in Jewish white man?

            Not only are you a racist, but you’re an anti Semite

            Lol

            Regards

            Chuck Bennett

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          • Lyndon Keltner

            *was brung

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          • Lyndon Keltner

            Wrong. I love Jews, with a only few noted exceptions.

            FACT: Most of the freedom riders, including those who were murdered in Mississippi, were Jewish.

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          • ferd

            Ain’t it a pity that you judge people by race or tribe at all ..instead of by their actions …or “content of their character.”

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          • Lyndon Keltner

            I judge people by the way they vote. You either vote for the KKK-endorsed candidates or you don’t.

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  2. numbersgame

    Update to my earlier post: bulls did a less than adequate job defending AAPL. Sell all rips, short initial dips.

    Closed market after a day like this: bad news. Prediction: huge gap down for Thursday mornign, but maybe it gets filled.

    Aslo ,closign markets puts American retail invetors at a disadvantage compared to Wall Street and foreign markets, becuase ***the global market is still open***. However, they did the same thing for Reagan.

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  3. teslawasright

    The Le Fly ain’t playin’

    Prepare to Qualify

    France bustin it loose.

    Buy Silver Gentlemen

    Perhaps we should all go for a late night drive

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  4. it is showtime

    See if Bush’s day off becomes a rescue or the FINAL NAIL

    .

    .

    .

    “Oops.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yz_eNUMWX4A
    Ferris Bueller’s Day Off

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  5. Lyndon Keltner

    Volatility is good for the traders who know what they are doing.

    I thank Trump for this amazing year.

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  6. one-eighty

    “We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN”

    Does the Space Case really think that China is paying those tariffs?

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  7. wolfdaddy

    Does BTC come into play again if the shit hits the fan?

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  8. txchick57

    Wish you’d held your tvix. I added yesterday and feasted today. It spent exactly 1 day under the 50 dma

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  9. helen

    This is not going to be like 2009 but it will be a slow decade of regurgitating exces, credit and oversupply. Only excellent traders will make money going forward.
    Having said that, the S&P will most likely see the 2000-2100 range. Albeit not in straight line like 2008-09.

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  10. irma vep

    A cake walk is like musical chairs. I’d get more descriptive but I doubt it’s a must know to you.

    I can’t believe it can get as bad as ’08 into ’09. It’s just all the international political indecision and Trumpery. The money guys knew what they were doing wrong then and yet still continued to do it until WAMP! Silence. The music had to stop. No more cake batter pouring into the burning housing and other all-to-human credit-based markets.

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  11. irma vep

    Immense job loss then as well feeding the beast.

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  12. irma vep

    Re-Insurance was dancing a jig.

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  13. irma vep

    Wakeup Irma! Wakeup! Have to ride the horses. Literally.

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