iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,705 Blog Posts

*** BEAR MARKET TRADING ***

Markets are closed tomorrow, so prepare for vapor lock pin action into the bell. Very thin and very furious. The market is angry, pissed the fuck off that Trump thinks he’s a ‘tariff man’ and only now coming to the conclusion that he, cannot, in fact, negotiate a deal with China. His support amongst fellow politicians is too weak and China knows it.

They’ll just wait it out for 2 years, buoy their economy using cash, and then annihilate us through increased shipments of fentanyl, cleverly disguised as those little silicon packets in sneaker boxes.

I sold all of my trading positions, sans CANG (too illiquid) and bought a 10% sized stake in TZA. I have high conviction that market is heading lower, for a variety of reasons.

We hit the top of the channel and failed. We’re now inside said channel, racing for new lows. Watch IWM closely.

The ark floats and I do indeed regret having sold out of TMF. This is what happens when you’re a trading monkey. You slip on banana peels left by others.

Rates are crashing lower because the perception is recession. All of the financial models are predicated upon PEs and now the E portion is uncertain, to perhaps heading lower. That means downside revisions and a total fresh look at where stocks belong to be priced.

How low can we go?

Look at this metric extracted from Exodus, the median PE ratios for the tech sector.

We’re at 21x now, based upon earnings that might weaken. Back in 2008, the median PE was 14x. Let’s not assume the worst, but it’s fair to say that stocks are fairly priced here and can fall in line with earnings revisions. If said revisions is 10%, so be it. Today, people are panicking and selling it all. Choose to be a better person.

My TZA position is a 10% holdings. My trading account has 85% cash and has been this way for a while. I’m rarely in cash for a long duration; but I had nothing to buy and the gains happened too suddenly for my trading style. I do not enjoy to buy into sharply lower tapes. My strength lies in buying into a repeatable trend. If you find yourself making mistakes, TRADE SMALLER or not at all.

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9 comments

  1. irma vep

    I just checked my Fidelity account to verify it in case you were joshing. That’s a big deal that they are closing the Stock Market as a day of mourning for President Bush. Isn’t it?

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  2. bronze28

    just the fact that ORANGE HEAD referred to himself as “Tariff Man” or so shows his stupidity. And American companies are paying that toll and will try to pass on to consumers.

    SO WHO IS HE HELPING?? fucking idiot.

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    • frog

      He’s not helping anyone. Idiots can’t help anyone, regardless of their grandiose ideas about what wonderful things they are doing.

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    • Lyndon Keltner

      He isn’t in the business of helping.

      He reflects the ideas (more notably, the American brand of Fear, Ignorance, Bigotry, and Smear) of the people who elected him.

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      • frog

        Actually Trump & his base both reflect the ideas transmitted to them by the Right Wing disinformation network that got Trump elected, with Russian assistance. Trump talks to Hannity on the phone almost every night for political advice.

        The Right Wing disinformation network owns us all.

        Trump is attempting to help himself, since he doesn’t care about anyone or anything else. But he can’t even do that because he is an idiot.

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  3. WrongView

    5-D chess.

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  4. heaterman

    The markets are just adjusting to what Obama called ,… and I quote, “profit to earnings ratio”.

    I’ll bet you my last nickel that the Orange One knows what the heck PE means.

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  5. bintercorp

    Fly, please buy… WE NEED TO RETEST THE LOWS.

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