Everyone is a genius again. I am so pleased to learn that so many people saw the market plunge coming and are now short equities. You know, often times I feel a certain sense of dread, thanks to this whacky world I live in; but after learning about so many of you marker oracles, playing the market like a fiddle, I once again have hope in a bright future for my children.
The past week has been a doozy for stocks and cryptos. Let’s do a cursory review of the biggest losers with market caps above $1 billion.
Cryptos:
ICON -66%, NANO -55%, BITCOIN GOLD -52%, TRON -52%, NEM -51%, QTUM -51%, NEO -48%, CARDANO -48%, VECHAIN -47%, RIPPLE -47%
Stocks:
OSTK -32%, CORT -30%, PRTA -27%, OMI -26%, AKS -24%, GPOR -23%, WFT -23%, EGOV -23%, GES -22%
As fucked up as it sounds, retail has been hit the hardest the past week — off nearly 8% as a group. You’d think the sector got hit enough last year and that tech would recoil from their highs during this sell off. Large cap tech is a mixed bag — with gains posted in AMZN and FB, and 7% losses in GOOGL, BABA, and NVDA.
The best performers, as a group, have been movies and wine/beer. How cliche.
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That was quite a bullshit bounce. Glad I unloaded all the long positions in time.
You’re so smart.
Not so sure know about that. But experienced.
Not that you care, but…
Look at the performance of $XIV vs $SVXY. XIV is currently outperforming intraday by ~3%. This has been an oddity that has persisted over the last few weeks. Total premium is probably upwards of 10% now. There is absolutely no reason why one should do any better than the other…other than $XIV being more opaque.
If you want to short vol, you should be buying $SVXY, not $XIV. The free juice you’ve gotten in $XIV is gonna come out at some point.
So one big difference between the two: SVXY is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), while XIV is an Exchange Tarded Note (ETN).
ETFs are backed by actual assets. So SVXY actually shorts VIX futures.
ETNs are only backed by the faith in and credit of the issuer (Credit Suisse’s ability and desire to pay). More importantly, XIV is priced based on
So SVXY is priced based on VIX futures, while XIV is priced with a calcualtion based on the day-to-day change of the actual index. This means it is possible for them not to track each other exactly.
That’s what I meant by “opaque”
We’ve seen this in the past with VIX ETN’s
Most notably when TVIX traded at over 100% premium…until it didn’t and it all got taken out in one day.
I think we’ll end the week down again.
This 9+ year bull market has had one lesson: BTFD. Having brainwashed the retail investors into that, the pros will use that against them. The market may very well continue its upward trend, but not until people think it won’t.
Volume says that we ar nowhere near any kind of panic and the indexes are still up YTD
Fear is growing. Vix has renewed energy.
So unbelievably lucky this week as I am in the midst of changing advisors…..everything in cash since January 25. Hopefully the new advisor knows a lot more than the old.