iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,473 Blog Posts

Credit Suisse: Buy Apple Ahead of iPhone 8 ‘Super Cycle’

I used to be one of those people who upgraded to the latest iPhone on the very day it was released. My motive was fairly straight forward. I was enamored with the new technology, speeds of the phone, and new features. However, the phones have gotten so good, commingled with my increasingly curmudgeon attitude, that I haven’t upgraded my iPhone in years. I think I have the iPhone 5 or 5s, while everyone else in my family has brand new ones.

Seriously, I couldn’t care less. As long as I am able to place a call, retrieve my emails, and do cursory searches, I am happy.

Credit Suisse thinks I’m an outlier. In a research note out, they’re suggesting chasing Apple up here — at record highs — ahead of the 2018 release of the iPhone 8.

“We remain convinced that the iPhone product cycle will be significant in terms of driving multi-year unit growth, and maintain our conviction on Apple’s ability to introduce new higher pricing tiers with improved mix,” analyst Kulbinder Garcha wrote in a note to clients Tuesday entitled “8 Super-cycle – rising demand, rising price.”

“Given this, as well as a high retention rate, we see the 8 Super-cycle will unleash pent-up demand,” he wrote.

“Apple has historically raised iPhone prices along with key updates,” he wrote. “Given its affluent user base, a significant feature upgrade, limited price elasticity shown so far, as well as Samsung’s higher pricing points of the Galaxy S8 devices, we believe our pricing assumptions could prove conservative at $670/$770/$900 for three tiers of the new phones.”

Credit Suisse raised their estimates to $11.62 from $10.77. But does it really matter, all things considered? The company has $250b in the bank. They already won.

Their 12mo price target is $170.

I’m just curious what the 8 will have that the 7s didn’t? Remember years ago when there was speculation that the iPhone might include MVIS tech for their projector technology. That never panned out. Aside from processing speed and better resolution, I remain unconvinced as to why I should upgrade to a new phone.

Thoughts?

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37 comments

  1. beerlooter

    It shits bitcoins

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  2. sarcrilege

    iPhone is not a phone; it’s a tracking device that tells your owners what you do and think every 4secs (handshake w/ tower). Getting an ankle bracelet is more palatable than iPhone. If you want a phone, get a dumb phone with removable battery.

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  3. matt_bear

    i bought the iPhone SE last year. The old body style.

    i’m turning into an old man. Get off my lawn.

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    • dschnei6

      I bought an iPhone SE last year too. I have no plans to upgrade for the next few years. The four inch screen is the perfect form factor. Prior to that I bought a new iPhone every year starting with the 3gs and ending with the 6+.

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    • bennyhill

      Me too, battery life on the SE is far superior to any other iPhone too. That said, the upgrade cycle will continue – a heavily used iPhone only last 2-2.5 years max, then people get the newer one. You don’t need revolutionary new features to sell the new phones.

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      • The Maven

        My iPhone 4S is one helluva lot older than two years, bubba.

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  4. NotGekko

    Don’t you want to wear those uber-cool earbuds? That way everyone will know how hip and progressive you are.

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  5. kdog

    Damn…You must be around your forties. 🙂

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  6. hedge500

    I think the iPhone 7 only did as well as it has because samsung utterly dropped the ball – with literally exploding phones. I had a note 7 and exchanged it for a iPhone 7, I suspect droves of others did the same.
    I think apple is low on new innovations these days, they do have a great user interface.

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  7. The Maven

    Your biggest issue will be Security, Doc. Anything that cannot upgrade to the latest iOS is a security fail that will only get worse. I am upgrading both my current iPhone4S and iPad Gen3 when the new phones come out. Advice: Buy an iPhone7 when the iPhone8 comes out. Super-Cycle indeud.

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  8. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    100% agree, my iPhone 6 plus does everything my wife’s 7 does. Speed is the main issue I am concerned about and right now we seem to be hitting a point to where the speed is so fast that there is no incentive to spend another $700 on a new phone.

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  9. ironturd

    Upgrading allows an investor to say abreast of both important marginal and major advances in tech and business model trends both broadly and within apple at the most minimal minimal cost of a couple extra hundred bucks. Not buying an original iPhone lost anyone a 10-20x bagger and not upgrading to an iPhone 6 and 7 lost you knowledge of the health and wearables functionality and focus of future Apple business, both of which are leveraging their installed base and growing its dominance/moat. +60% in a year w/ 2% dividend and low multiple. It’s not fashionable, it’s just prudent investing. A reasonable aapl investment in the last 10 years should’ve paid for its products many times over.

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    • The Maven

      You do not need to own an iPhone to understand the functions and software, if you can read a fucking review.

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  10. DaJuice

    Speaking of $MVIS, is it a buy here?!?!

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  11. joshua

    I want a damn hologram projector already… AAPL needs to focus on the living room like they said. Living room and content.

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  12. the dude

    What, no politics today?

    OK I’ll start. Jared Kushner will be going to jail like his father, maybe even for the same charges: witness tampering and tax evasion. Like father, like son. Flynn might help put him there. #MAGA

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  13. heaterman

    Phones in general have reached the point where one begins to wonder what additional features could possibly be added which would have broad appeal to consumers.
    I had a 5 which served me well and upgraded to a 7/128 storage. It has way more capability than I need or will ever use.
    I don’t live on my phone like many seem to do these days and I detest the ginormous size some of them are getting to be.

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  14. george jetson

    I heard it is going to include a proprietary app gives owners the ability to teleport with other iphone users via facetime. that’s huge!

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  15. awanka

    I read that it’s going to have a full screen in front with no home button like the S8. It’s also going to have to some basic 3D mapping capabilities. I also read it will likely be delayed because Apple is running into technological challenges.

    It’s going to be a sexy looking phone I’m sure.

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  16. og

    Once you get used to the 6, anything older just seems tiny.

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    • bennyhill

      Yea but you can use the SE with one hand, and it doesn’t stick out of a shirt pocket. Plus the big phones are uncomfortable in the pocket when you sit down wearing hipster jeans.

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      • og

        Very true about the jeans.

        The 5 / 5S / SE is probably the best designed iPhone ever though.

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  17. doughjadank

    Like always, you’re ahead of the trend. Smartphones are only phones for so long before that’s not what you’re buying anymore.

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  18. soupbone

    I might get a pay as you go flip top, just for security. I like to live under the radar. I can still be totally tracked up here in Cape Breton via credit cards and more but an iPhone is totally out of the question.

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  19. fasteddie2

    Wow, blast from the past…Forgot about MVIS & the Pico projector. If I recall Fly, you had some convertibles on MVIS. I think there are a ton of iPhones 6’s still in use and quite a few 5’s. The iPod Touch is way over due for a refresh as well with demand from all those tweens & teens who want an iPhone but parents don’t want to pay for another phone & data plan. I see a super-cycle beginning with the 8 but a lot of that move was likely already priced in with the recent run up. It won’t surprise me when AAPL is the first to a Trillion in market cap. I still use a 6 and had every other model prior, but the 7 just wasn’t enough to justify. The 8 should be worthy of an upgrade. I kept my original iPhone as a momento to go along with AAPL shares I bought in ’06 in the Roth acct. That old iPhone still has the original iBC app for the small screen with posts from Danny & Woodshedder!

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  20. mos

    Totally agreed.

    Iphone 5S bought re-conditioned. Has a cracked screen now in a rubber case.
    Good to go.

    This “smart phone” crap gets any more invasive (its really ME learning how invasive it is) and its back to the flip phone for me baby!

    Can I keep my number and just get burner phones?

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