Smaller cap stocks were trending strong towards the end of last week, while large cap, big money stocks, fell. Couple this with the fortuitous bounce in gold and treasuries, and one could make a strong argument that to sell in May, NOW, is a good idea.
The tide might be turning and the price action might get extremely dour, and soon. Case in point, the VIX index has been ripping off the tits of index longs for the past year — almost uninterrupted. With all of the ‘two scoops’ business bogging down the Trump administration, rumors swirling about him going postal on his entire staff, there is a very real threat to all of his economic stimulus program suggestions. As such, you should head into this week’s trade with EXTREME caution.
My models suggest waiting out until Friday, to see if the broader indices outperform risk off assets. If not, and dare I say, stay out of stocks. There could be easy money to be made here on the short side, long bonds and gold too.
Or, there is a distinct chance that markets, in fact, recapture the old college spirit and give it another go. Either way, we will know by the end of next week.
The median return for all stocks, year to date, is +3.99%, according to Exodus — hardly anything to beat off to. There have been big winners in tech, casinos, healthcare, and banks, but have been mostly offset by deleterious drawdowns in retail, industrials, and basic materials.
From my vantage point, and I want you to listen to me very carefully as if you’re worthless lives depended on it, there are two ways to approach this sort of carnivale.
1. Intuition
2. Have a strategy
The former entails having talent. Sadly, most of you are bereft of it. The latter is something ALL of you can accomplish, even the most base creatures amongst you. In the days and weeks ahead, I intend to show you how Exodus (extra Billy Mays Hays) can accomplish this task — keeping you focused and with a plan.
Having talent is something that you’re born with, able to exploit until it’s gone. Any smart person knows his limitations and adapts to the environment, which entails limiting his exposure to his weaknesses. I believe it’s time to up the level of discourse here. No more pavement ape nonsense, instead favoring grander/smarter strategies, moving away from talentless subterfuge that only serves to blow up brokerage accounts.
Think about it, fucked faces.
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Let’s just wait for Exodus to toss off an oversold signal and then use natural talent, gifts and ability to make a buy/don’t buy decision. We are still in a bull market which means buy the oversold dips.
I agree that the downside risk increases as we proceed – but until proven otherwise this is not a bear market. This is a bull market.
what the he’ll happened to movie night?!?!
Having talent is something that you’re born with, able to exploit until it’s gone. Any smart person knows his limitations and adapts to the environment, which entails limiting his exposure to his weaknesses.
Homeric.
Well said Sir.
I thought of Frank Sinatra as well Sunday, on the anniversary of his death. A one of a kind talent.
Chimping out and buying a bunch of ticker $C
Gonna ride Citigroup up to $100