Moody’s analytics is out with their ‘final’ assessment of this election season and have concluded that because oil prices are low and the people are head over heels in love with Barack Obama, Hillary God Damned Clinton will win the election — by a landslide — to become next president of these Unites Steaks.
Also, the non-biased, hard news fuckers at Reuters are predicting a 95% chance she’ll win — based on their most recent polling.
Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against 206 for Republican Donald Trump, Moody’s Analytics predicted on Tuesday in the final update of its model before Election Day on Nov. 8. That would match Obama’s margin of victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.
The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton win, with a 95 percent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral votes. A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to be elected president.
The Moody’s Analytics model is based on a combination of state-level economic conditions and political history, and has correctly called the outcome of each presidential election since Republican Ronald Reagan unseated Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980.
Rather than focus on the individual candidates in a race, the model instead centers on whether current economic and political conditions favor the incumbent party in the White House. This year those factors point to Clinton becoming the 45th U.S. president.
The economic factors Moody’s measures include the two-year percentage changes in real personal income per household, as well as house and gasoline prices.
Moody’s does add one minor caveat to their robotic thinking.
Moody’s warns, however, that its model does not take into account any individual characteristics of specific candidates.
“Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly state-by-state projections,” Moody’s analytics economist Dan White wrote in the report.
In other words, if Clinton should arrested and tossed into Guantanamo Bay prior to November the 8th, she might not win. Or, if any more of her criminality seeps into the voter consciousness, it’s very likely support for her candidacy might wane.
Frankly, I find it incredible that these news agencies are still publishing this garbage, in light of recent events — which are developing and getting worse with every day that passes.
Comments »