Julian Emanuel is an Executive Director (ooh, fancy title) at UBS, which means that he thinks he knows more about everything, stemming from stocks to cocks, because he works on the VIX line all day long. At any rate, I entered into this video with an open mind and left feeling unfulfilled. He’s calling for a higher VIX. He cites the disconnect between GDP expectations and the stock market run. Correctly, he highlighted the failure of central bank overplanning (you can steal that too), yet only calls for the S&P to dive lower to 1,970–a mere 60 points or so from current levels.
In addition to that, he said markets will trade up by year end.
Wrong. The S&P will eclipse 1,970 in a single day, then proceed to throw people like Julian into fucking wooden barrels over the edge of Niagra Falls.
Moreover and inexorably so, equities will trade sharply lower by year end, much lower than most people ever thought was possible.
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Ultra mundane….
Their regurgitated fodder disgusts me.
Good evening and good night. I’m gonna go home to sleep w/ my wife (extra Mr. Green – Clue)
Din
Wait. Want more Devil Dogs. They are the ones that make the market rise.
Frog–being a contrarian blindly for the sake of being contrary in and of itself is not a real strategy.
That is not my strategy. I think the economy is recovering, albeit slowly. And that if the world economy is not doing too hot, that central banks will throw some more cash at it.
Everyone has an agenda. Julian works for a firm that sell securities and long only investment management and advice. What else do we expect him to say?
Btw, I’m in the ark as more of these drones display their ridiculous bullish outlook. Let’s see…is it a good time to buy stocks at just a few percent off their all-time highs at this stage in the cycle?
Hello?
“Niagra” Falls? Are they going up?
down, inexorably, down.
Viagra/Niagara
Viagra/Niagara
One takes things up, one takes things down, hence one-eightys’ confusion with “Niagra”
“Wrong. The S&P will eclipse 1,970 in a single day, then proceed to throw people like Julian into fucking wooden barrels over the edge of Niagra Falls.”
Amazing. 10/10.
Niagara. Niagara people. Niagara
Did he just say “DEFENSIVENESS Bubble”
Lmfao I’ve never heard of such lunacy. He didn’t even say that the defensive sector may be overbought; just that there’s a bubble in people keeping their money away from phantom-growth companies and instead cashflow heavy stocks.
A bubble in people wanting to stay away from the bubble; which isn’t truly a real bubble in his eyes, so the defensive bubble will pop when everyone see’s this…
Fucking rabbit-hole-inception-backwards-logic
fuck UBS
Frog–if the economy is “recovering slowly”, why have we had ZIRP for seven years? WTF is up with that? ZIRP was originally instituted to prevent a credit crisis death spiral, not to be used as a long term policy to cajole investors to take risk. If the economy is recovering, then the Fed has waited too long to normalize interest rates. It should have raised rates back in 2012 and let the economy correct itself, purge the excess debt on the books and allow the malinvestment and mis-allocation of resources to clear. But now the latter condition is worse than the former. The truth is we have not recovered. All the talk of recovery and slow growth is a red herring to distract everyone from the real issue that the Fed has screwed things up and are now backed into a corner. As Mr Art Cashin stated today, the CBs and the Fed are helpless.
Bingo
In a normal recovery, Obama would have been able to pass bigger stimulus bills, and the recovery would have been done by now. But the GOP Congress would not even let him pass bills to repair our crumbling infrastructure, even though this will cost more, the longer we wait, and will blow up the deficit more and more. Of course the GOP doesn’t care if they blow up the deficit bigger. It’s just an issue to rail about to them– not one that they want to do anything about. he GOP just blocked Obama at every turn. So the Fed is the only tool that was being used in the recovery– a bizarre and abnormal situation indeed.
It’s not the Fed that will do QE next. It’s other central banks in the world. They realize that the U.S. is paralyzed by the GOP, and they will do their part to help out– after they finish laughing at the U..S. for acting so ridiculous– almost snatching economic defeat from the jaws of victory.
Holy shit, Frog. I don’t even want to take the time to respond to your convoluted thinking.
frog, regardless of the inaction of Congress, interest rates should not have continued to fall through a 7 year recovery. If they had stayed at 2009 levels and slowly crept up, that would be one thing, but 30year bonds were at 4% in 2009 which looks like a goldmine compared to today’s rates.
Look at Japan for a preview of the US, demographics and all
There are numerous differences between Japan and the U.S. in their economics.
“Correctly, he highlighted the failure of central bank overplanning (you can steal that too), yet only calls for the S&P to dive lower to 1,970”
I literaly LOLd when I read this. How can anyone simultaneously beleive that CBs overplanned but it will only dink the market 3%?