Much of the seasonality data is regarded as ‘hocus pocus’, sheer moments of coincidence, by the bookworm crowd. The truth is, often times this hocus pocus stuff can save you an immense amount of coin, simply by following the paths worn out by fellow humans who have travailed similar paths before.
The above chart are the seasonality returns for the SPY, dating back to 1993, courtesy of Exodus. Moreover, the last time the SPY returned greater than 6% was in 2009 and 2010. In both circumstances, the market proceeded higher in April, with a 1.55% return in 2010 and a 9.93% return in 2009.
In May of 2010, however, the SPY plummeted by 7.95%.
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Problem with seasonality is if it worked consistently markets would front run it until it didn’t, right?
Makes sense. But the stats do not lie.
Finally we got a weaker Yuan out of China. That selling of the dollar was so crazy last week, will be nice to see the central bankers on Spring Break this week.
So we crash now? You have spirit. Without a doubt already have money.
holiday shortened weeks more often than keep vol at bay
*more often than not
Ironbird, We Crash. BIG BIG BIG BIG Bubble has been created, Bubbles always pop. Learning Why is Priceless..Probucks, Light Vol could really cause pain from everyone that bought up the commodities on that silly rally.
It’s interesting how some things are front run and therefore neutralized, and others aren’t. I think human nature wins frequently. Isn’t it correct most snowstorms do not result in widespread gastric events? Yet go to any grocery store right before a storm and see shopping carts piled with toilet paper for a month. Gotta love the teeming masses. Now will they just get out of my way?