Eighty percent of stocks are lower today, as investors sashay (no homo) in an out between consciousness and unconscious nightmares of a Janet Yellen Fed. Losses are most bountiful, as the bears like to say, in the oil and gas space–after today’s spectacle of a 6% decline.
But all principle sectors are lower, with a few outlier industries like gold and soda pop stocks, both of which are still lower for the year.
When the end comes and centaurs kick open the doors of the NYSE, in an effort to “play” with the traders who are domiciled there, only one asset class will be left standing.
That’s right, good olde fashioned U.S. treasury bonds–long term duration.
Why?
Flight to quality.
When the market imploded in January-February of 2008, losing 16%, TLT was flat, not including the two month’s of dividends you would’ve received if long. At the end of the day, the dutch settlers who founded NYC, ripping it away from the savage clutches of the wampum loving natives, had a business mind about them. The West India company was intent on creating this country to serve as a factory of sorts for profit. After the British were gifted New Amsterdam back to them in 1674, they cultivated a society of industrious men and women, wholly intent on conquering the world.
After we rebelled from the white wig wearing catamite Brits and seized our freedom, through secret society means and dark magic spells, America was a force to be reckoned with; a great nation had been born. As time went on, our power grew, surpassing all of the former world powers–making them to look like pathetic jackass fools. Our military prowess became second to none and our debt became the envy of the world. The Chinese, Indians and the Japanese sopped it up, thanks to its liquidity and safety.
In 1944, an agreement was made in Bretton Woods, NH, attended by 44 countries under our command, to form a new economic realty, one that founded the IMF and World Bank–which was to be supported by the U.S. dollar. Our currency reserve status was born. It was born in the fires of WW2, a time which we proved, without a shadow of the doubt, that all other nations bend the knee to our eagle standard, else undergo a bombardment of their cities.
That is why today TLT is moving higher, as the markets get their faces punched off.
THE HISTORY LESSON IS NOW OVER.
As scheduled inside of Exodus, I sold out of another tranche of SPY this morning, at the open, effectively removing myself from leverage. I am now 75% long SPY, 25% long TLT. I intend to sell another 2/3rds of my position in SPY over the next two days.
Good day.
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Should be able to sell some SPY at the $170 and $160 levels this week.
That’s beethoven ‘5’
it’s called forcing the fed’s hand….they would have to be morons not to loosen the language….last week’s lows should hold.
You better hope so.
This isn’t Bernanke’s Fed.
When Greenspan was Fed Head, journalists used to try to guess his intentions from the angle at which he held his briefcase as he walked.
to the tune of Yellow Submarine:
We’re all living in a bear market now,
A bear market now, A bear market now
We’re all living in a bear market now
all everything else was…was bull shit…all alongggggg (note held for count at end)
Hard to follow you fly. You are so bipolar. One minute you proclaim a rally of epic proportions around the corner the next you are saying brace for impact.
Super
There are opinions and then facts. When the facts change, so do my opinions.
This trading details in exodus were scheduled events, whether the market was up or down.
“When the market imploded in January-February of 2008, losing 16%, TLT was flat, not including the two month’s of dividends you would’ve received if long.”
– and not counting OTM calls you could sell against your position. Or the credit put spreads you could put on. Suddenly that shitty yield doesn’t look so shitty.
Super. Fucking. Fucked.
Someone has to tell the stocked market that the oil market doesn’t give two shits about where the stocked market is going. The fed can rescue the banks that have too many bad shake loans on their books and, meanwhile, oil prices will continue to fly south. At that point, I surmise, traders will realize that, since financials are protected from southward oil prices, they can start to trade safely again, at least in consumer stocks because, realizing that the broader system is secure, and that Joe Sixpack is only paying $1.10 per gallon o gas, said Sixpack has plenty of spare change for iPhones, beers and condoms and whatnot.
The market ended in the same place Jan 11 as it did Jan 15
The market ended in the same place Jan 19 as it did Jan 22
The market ended in the same place Jan 21 as it did Jan 26
This market just goes up and down to whipsaw traders.
It probably will go UP 200 points tomorrow to offset today.
Oh I like history.