Analysts notes are already streaming into my inbox, complaining and whining over stock prices dropping to ‘unreasonable’ levels. They cite robust business conditions and reaffirm their guidance. The same thing happened in 2008, ahead of the largest stock market rout the world had ever known. No one really knew the full extent of the carnage before it was too late. Lehman went bust and sucked us into the wormhole with it.
But it was more than Lehman. The economy was in a tailspin and banks were losing billions daily.
Today we have a different scenario. The market has gone up 11,000 points since the 2009 lows. Corporate balance sheets have never been better and banks are doing just fine.
So what’s the problem?
I will repeat this salient point because no one seems to be believing me: oil.
This rally was built on oil. We were sold a bill of goods that stated America could be energy independent because of all that oil coming out from the Bakken and Permian. At the end of the day, it was all a mirage, since we’d need to sustain $70 oil to make it worthwhile. In other words, the people were never going to benefit from this so called energy independence because oil had to remain elevated.
With the price of crude dropping daily, we are now seeing the vulnerability of that house of cards.
That’s the bad news.
The good news is the selling will exhaust itself soon. I intended to begin buying on Friday and that’s probably what I will end up doing. I was shattered today, to small pieces and then broomed up and placed in a garbage canister. I’ll make it back and so will you.
The good folks at iBankCoin aren’t going anywhere and will stay with you to bear witness to all 7 stages of the Apocalypse.
well shit.
Good stuff FLY…was buying into the close.
I’m here … I’ve always been here; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cpf-IMqxjVI
Not just oil but the massive rally in the dollar (as if they are independent of one another). It was going to matter eventually and it is now.
I am afraid of a little Friday bounce and then the eunuching ($100 wax job) next week.
I hate to say this but shorting LNG and RRC has made my year, wouldn’t mind oil continuing lower for another week or two
Got back in at the close. We should rip tomorrow.
Why?
Gambler’s fallacy, mostly. But others probably got tricked by that 1928 close, then immediate drop in AH.
Also, AA is supposed to be a hint into earnings, but they didn’t do so well? Hopefully that fact bellwether thing is incorrect this time!
I said I believed you, but you ignored me. :'(
I quite literally sold the lows of the day, and I’m actually proud of myself for it.
long OIH and IWM for the win
Mr. Fly, are your losses still on excess of 20% for the year given your ravaging back in February?
Pardon me, Mr. Moto, but please fuck a cylinder.
The Fly is God.
Fly, you expecting more carnage tomorrow? Await a real flush instead of a slow bleed like today, then buy?
Remind me what the reference to “a mug filled with black smoke” comes from? I love how they both keep getting up and sitting back down randomly.
Believe this was around the time Le Fly stopped drinking coffee and became a Tea Individual.
“Today we have a different scenario. The market has gone up 11,000 points since the 2009 lows. Corporate balance sheets have never been better and banks are doing just fine.”
Corporate balance sheets may not be what many are to believe. Yes, cash hoarding outside of boarders to avoid the Taxman. However, borrowing tremendous sums to buy-back shares to provide the illusion of growth when topline is and has been a disaster.
As for the Banks, well, FASB remains in suspension, thus, the cooking-of -books persists, as well as $300+ T in notional derivatives on the backs of the 5 largest US Money Centers.
Thus, certainly things are a bit different today, yet, none; zero of the underlying issues of yesteryear have been addressed and likely, far worse than ’08.
That said, still believe we’ll print DJIA:20K ; COMP:5K & SPX;2.2K within the next 12-16 months before succumbing to a 40% hair-trim across the board.
Good Evening to All~
bravo
Wow, what r u trying to say, don’t hold back ! Just say it already
I think the real issue here is Europe. Just look at $EWI or $EWG; they are far below their 200 day MA. Oil may be falling for this reason. I would not buy tomorrow; I think we go to at least to SPX 1900, before we bounce.
1917
its always good to keep a cool head, but now feels like one of those times where keeping a cool head and keep thinking separates the survivors from the drowning victims.
One day after, the fucking biggest, up day, of the year.
You didn’t get anything.
All your dreams and hopes were for a magical greed fest.
It did not go Your way
Please tell me you got short yesterday. I cannot respect you until I know that you looked at the biggest up day of 2014, whispered to your pillow that it will all be erased the next day, and got short.
Jeering from the bench is the quickest way to get cut.
Not playing for daily trades. I keep partial stops on some shorts to manage margin&loss.
Full short ‘allocation’ since before the first move above 2000 s&p.
The numerous global situations has me more confident w endgame
Huggiebear was well and truly smote today…the damage is considerable and won’t be easily undone.
I am flat post close, well positioned to miss tomorrow’s epic rally.
Lost about 3.5 percent of my portfolio today. Back to neg on the year.
Huggz, in the spirit of commiseration, I owned a beautiful 12% of my portfolio in ARWR, 6% in EMES, and a fruitful 7% in BITA. Oh lets not forget the 3% VSLR position. I’m down about…. 20% on the week. BOOOM.
Damn! And i thought playing with futures was dangerous!
I could also be the fact that the oil industry was the real driving force for good jobs. Now in peril with soon to be layoffs in exploration.
I’m all cash since Tuesday, ready to follow Le Fly to hell and back.
Yes, structural problem in POMO land… finally.
Down 2.92% today, gave up all gains from yesterday, + 2.25% YTD…Long a bunch of beaten down names that won’t get off the mat.
XLE could it be the tell ? if it bounces from 80, then could that be a floor ?
The revenge of Samsonite Hamburgalar!
What did I win? Trip to Vegas?
Futures have already taken out the lows by a good amount. This is true in spoos and CL…
…and probably everything else on God’s opaque desert.
The bloated pigs must blow the bulls out the backdoor.
Remembering the famous words from the bulls. “The stock market isn’t the economy” Perhaps it’s true today just as it was when that phrase was so popular.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=jnk
Biggest one day MOVE that I can see in the last yr
One of my top 3 DAILY indicators. Game change ?
Apparently, Uncle Carl’s open letter didn’t do much?
I knew Peak Oil was BS
Shameta
Shemitah,
Began on 9/25. The first day we broke the 50 day. Shhh! don’t talk about it. Secret voodoo.
“In his sequel, called of “The Mystery of the Shemitah,” the messianic rabbi reveals the shocking discovery that the five great economic crashes of the last 40 years – 1973, 1980, 1987, 2001 and 2008 – have all occurred in Shemitah years – those God set apart as sabbath years.”
hard to be bullish when the IWM weekly looks like this https://www.tradingview.com/x/JDIv1Rfj/ we shall see the close on Friday but my guess IWM is probably not going to negate the current break down.
Replay of late 2007 is happening now. will it play out the same????? Senor Fly?
Every Bear, the few that are left, either was obliterated or reversed long yesterday on the close….. and is fucking dead today.
just do the opposite of your brother George Costanza
Why do people have to be bears or bulls? I went cash before Fed, saw the explosion, didn’t go long, and really didn’t do much today either in all honesty.
Fly, Not just Oil, all commodities…Carry unwind…they created the Shanghai Copper Bubble, now we have to live with it.
Consumer staples at all time highs.
I’m getting long at $82 on crude and 1880 on the spus
And now I’m mad didn’t buy weekly puts. Was looking at 190s for tomorrow.
Halloween market.