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Yearly Archives: 2013

Refining My Position

My old favorite WNR is selling off hard today. I do not care what the news is because I know where the stock will eventually trade– and that is much higher. HFC, PSX, MPC, DK and ALJ  are all buys on the dips, based upon the premise that US domestic oil production will continue to increase, as well as demand for distillates, contrasted by a lack of pipeline infrastructure.

Being an experienced investor in this space for many years, I can tell you first hand, the sell offs are brutal. I recall riding a massive position down from $18 to $11, only to sell it later north of $24. Keep an eye on these stocks and look to get in, for WTI-Brent spreads are $18 and 321cracks are north of $23.

Today’s sell off was a walk in the park. If I’m right about the bull trend, we run higher tomorrow and fast. I added to my NAV position because that’s what I’m required to do–buy stocks when they are cheap and sell them higher.

Top picks: VHC, NAV

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Fly Buy: $NAV

I added to my NAV position.

Disclaimer: If you buy NAV because of this post, the next time you visit the zoo, you will fall into the lion’s dens and be eaten alive. And, you may lose money.

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Where Are the Deals?

The ipo market has been dead in the water ever since Facebook mugged investors. Last year’s $112 billion raised in the ipo market is the worst since 2008, 30% of 2011’s output. On one hand, it’s a good thing to have less deals, leaving limited choices for capital flow. But what does it say about the economy?

There’s no excitement in the market right now. For every resurgence in Facebook, I offer you a death in Apple.

The trading ranges will persist and hopefully we can break out to new levels. I’m not concerned about today’s pullback. It may be bought by the day’s end. But for the market to reenter real bull market status, we need the ipo market to liven up again. We need excitement, something to lure the naive retail investor back.

We need another Facebook, this time sans the criminality.

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Losing Is Part of the Process

I’ve been unfortunate as of late, on the receiving end of several bad ideas that turned into money losing ventures. I like to remind myself, as well as people around me, that the business of speculating is nothing more than a game of peaks and valleys. It’s important to moderate the valleys, while maximizing the peaks of course. I’d be perfectly content with booking 10 losing trades in a row, if I could nail just 2.

Most of the time my losses are small, anywhere from 3-10%. At times, due to the complexities of the market, ideas run aground and minor setbacks become impediments. Throughout my career, especially early on, I recall feeling a distinct sense of doom following large losses.  I felt as if I could never make the money back. The hole was too big and nothing that I could see at the time could “bail” me out. Lo and behold, with a little patience and plenty of smarts, I dug myself out and buried my enemies where they stood.

There’s an old saying, famous around these parts: “The Fly wins all the time, even when he is losing.”

To clarify,  losing is nothing more than a waystation, a temporary set back of sorts, to greatness. Some of you scratch your heads in amazement how someone could be so bold, yet distinguished. I only talk to you this way because it is my right to do so. Once you’ve gone through the motions, the investment life of Le Fly, you will learn to never bet against a person, such as myself.

You come to this blog and witness lots of people are reading it. Naturally, this is true. I never tried to become a world famous blogger in the arts of finance. It was my natural born right to do so, no different than it is the right of your neighbor to throw trash on your lawn or be a pervert.

The point I am trying to make, and did so quite effectively if I might say so, is that we’re all on a path, all unique but deliberate. The foundations of these paths were etched out many years ago, through the toils of hard work and ingenuity. Hubris has a way of muddying the waters, giving those who do not possess talent to feel a sense of entitlement. This is false hope and misdirected energy.

At the end of the day, it’s important to take a step back and realize who you are, limitations and all, with regards to the game of speculation.

Whenever a young chap comes up to me and talks with me about his investment career, I always ask “what was the first stock that you lost a million dollars in?” No one likes to talk about their losers because most cannot deal with adversity. They feel it makes them look weak. Quite the contrary. I wear my losses on my arm like a badge of honour. They are my battle scars, reminders to enjoy the moments when I am peaking.

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Willing to Give Insanity a Second Look

Even though the market is running red hot, I am willing to consider the fact that we’re going higher. I know it sounds crazy; but crazier things have been done here, such as buying VHC like a fucking robot over the past 6 months.

One of the lynchpins to market sentiment is AAPL. That stock needs to stop getting flogged. It’s entirely possible, by the way, that Judge Leonard Davis is about to slap injunctions on all AAPL products that include Facetime by late January, in reference to the lawsuit filed and won by VHC. I hope you understand the significance of this potential news event. Should this occur, every news agency in the world will cover it, similar to the RIMM-NTP suit of 2006, when RIMM settled for over $600 million.

It’s coming and when it does, ALL SHORT SELLERS LIVING NORTH OF ELEPHANT ISLANDS WILL BE DESTROYED AND IN RUINS. Pardon my hyperbole.

Aside from VHC, I am counting on JRCC, EXK and HMC to make me some money. Other non-core names like NAV, AAPL, FB and SNE are also important, but not big enough to affect my fate.

Bottom line: should the market rally next week, I am sold that we’re going to new highs. Naturally, I would never let my opinions get in the way of being prudent, considering my let downs of 2011 and 2012. But some of you are stuck in FAZmobiles and 100% cash, like impotent gigolos, utterly useless and of course vagrant.

 

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The Best of iBankCoin, 12/30/12-1/5/13

Fly

Manipulation Taking Place in the Shares of $VHC

A Fresh Start

Reader Request: “The Fly’s” Top 15 Follows on Twitter

Chess

Roadmap Going Forward

Stock #Market Recap 01/02/13 {Video}

Nasdaq Breaks Again, No Big Deal

RC

For Those That Think This Move Is Almost Over

5 Plays for 2013

This Is What I Envision The Opening Bell To Be Like Tomorrow

Rhino

When Did We Become So Pathetic?

Proving Your Ignorance and Lack of Resolve

Woodshedder

$SPY Gaps Up More Than 1.75% and Closes Higher Than the Open. Bullish or Bearish?

Top 5 Short Setups for Wednesday

Elizamae

Attn: Short Sellers of First Solar

The Streak Continues

RAUL3

ENJOY: A Really Simple Explanation of Today

100 Bear Coffins

Scott Bleier

Indescribably Delicious

Caine Thaler

Score One For The Gun Crowd (And RGR)

News

Documentary: Money and Speed- Inside The Black Box 

A Public Service Announcement From Peter Joseph for 2013 and Beyond 

FLASH: SILVER SLIDES ALMOST 4%, NOW UNDER $30

Bistro Fada

10 MOST CORRUPT POLITICIANS OF 2012

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The Short Sellers Are At Dunkirk

Never count on the short sellers to do anything worthy. They were wrong going into the new year and now they are being stuffed into cannons and shot into walls made from pig shit. Everything they stand for, frankly, is pessimistic garbage. It’s because of them that so many investors become disillusioned and stray away from their core thesis. Many people profess to ignore CNBC, based upon the idea that they are irresponsible perma-bull journalists–which is mostly true. Nevertheless, come to think about it, ninety percent of the internet “journalists” are permanently hating. They hate on other bloggers, the world and most definitely stocks.

It’s almost as if these men are trying to fill a void by being right about something so wrong. Article after article, we read of stories that are bound to destroy western finance, bullet points for the next depression. These are sick people, who during another era would’ve been locked up in mental institutions, eating apple sauce and lettuce for dinner.

Towards the end of the day, I purchased NAV, for a trade.

Look, the market can be very unforgiving and sometimes it doesn’t seem worth the anguish. But if you’re not starting your own business, or sitting on a bunch of patents–suing the shit out of productive people– this is the only avenue for people to get rich. A middle class person has no other way to get rich. He must do it wisely and aggressively, betting on his disciplines and tools to get him there. Invest in your infrastructure and it will yield results. I promise you that.

So think about that the next time you wishcast for the market to dive to the 2009 lows.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7919jk9wFU

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The Crap is Rising to the Top

Yesterday solar stocks shot through the fucking roof. Today it’s the shippers turn. Piece of shit companies like DRYS, GNK and EGLE are parabolic, leading me to believe we are truly near the top end of the trading range. Nevertheless, this speculative fervor can last awhile, or not. Either way, it’s worth exploring other piece of shit companies, in order to asses their trading capabilities.

Have a look. <—that link is exclusive for The PPT members only.

Here are a few ideas, with sectors.

Wireless:  IQNT, LEAP

Trucks: NAV

Footwear: DECK

Steel: MTL, AKS

Semis: LSCC, MRVL, CY, AMD

Restaurants: ARCO

Oil and Gas: KEG, SPN, PBR, UPL, CNQ, CHK, FST

Games: ROVI, EA

Miners: TC, TRQ, BTU, ANR, JRCC

Education: ESI, DV, CECO

Beverages: CEDC

Deportment Stores: JCP, EXPR

If I was in the market to play one of these, I’d go long right away, putting a strict line in the sand of -3% below cost basis. These are potential momentum plays, based upon overselling towards the end of 2012 from people who locked in losses. Those same people, providing they like their stocks, might be allocating assets into 2012’s biggest losers shortly.

 

 

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A Good Day to Profit

As you slumber about in your studio apartments, scrounging about for a piece of toast and coffee, you should consider selling out of some of your early winners, if only to demonstrate a bit of constraint here. It’s true, I am still reeling from 2012, a disappointment of shameful proportions. It’s going to take awhile before I am able to invest with the sort of graceful carelessness that I once exhibited in these halls. The first step to recover my “swag”, as some of your fellow housing tenement friends might say, is to win a few trades.

Gold and silver are misbehaving, same with bonds. There has been a flight to risk in early 2013, but it won’t last.

I will likely raise cash to 35% today.

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