Reckless Government Spending Stock Plays

I’ve been honing in on companies who suck milk from the government tit. Wouldn’t you rather own a business dependent on a stark mad, out of control, government, rather than a populous subject to instant-firing and subsequent impoverished state?

Thus far, I’ve identified the following names as beneficiaries to the larges of government.

PRSC

The Providence Service Corporation provides and manages government sponsored social services and non-emergency transportation services. It offers home and community based counseling services, which include home based and intensive home based counseling, substance abuse treatment services, school support services, correctional services, and workforce development; and foster care and therapeutic foster care services. The company also provides not-for-profit managed services comprising administrative support, information technology, and accounting and payroll services; intake, assessment, and referral services; monitoring services; and case management services. In addition, the company provides non-emergency transportation management services to state Medicaid programs, local government agencies, hospital systems, health maintenance organizations, private managed care organizations, and commercial insurers, as well as to individuals with limited mobility, people with limited means of transportation, people with disabilities, and Medicaid members. Further, it offers school transportation services to school children, including special needs students who are physically fragile or mentally ill. The company has operations primarily in the District of Columbia, United States; and British Columbia, Canada.

MMS
MAXIMUS, Inc. provides business process services to government health and human services agencies in the United States, Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. It focuses on administering government-sponsored programs, such as Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), health care reform, welfare-to-work, Medicare, child support enforcement, and other government programs. The company operates in two segments, Health Services and Human Services. The Health Services segment offers business process and administrative support services, as well as consulting services for state, provincial, and federal programs, including Medicaid, CHIP, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, health care reform, Medicare, and Health Insurance British Columbia. This segment’s services include government health insurance program administration, health insurance program eligibility and enrollment, eligibility and enrollment modernization for government health benefit programs, health insurance exchange design and operations, application assistance and independent enrollment counseling, premium payment processing and administration, objective and evidence-based health appeals, independent medical reviews, health plan oversight, eHealth solutions with the Medigent product suite, Medicaid Management Information System planning and oversight, program consulting, and consumer outreach and education services. The Human Services segment provides various business process, case management, job training, and support services. This segment’s services comprise welfare-to-work services; child support case management, customer contact center operations, and program and systems consulting services; management tools and professional consulting services for education institutions; K-12 special education case management solutions; program consulting services; and tax credit and employer services

SWI
SolarWinds, Inc. designs, develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure management software for IT professionals in various organizations in the United States and internationally. The company offers enterprise-class IT management products, including Network Performance Monitor, a server-based fault and performance management platform to minimize network downtime; Network Performance Monitor modules, a series of add-ons; network configuration manager to automate the processes of network device discovery, network inventory management, and network change management; user device tracker, a server-based switch port management tool; scalability engines to increase the scale of a number of the products; and enterprise operations console to provide web-based views of various instances of Network Performance Monitor modules and Application Performance Monitor. Its enterprise-class network and IT management products also comprise Application Performance Monitor, a server-based availability and performance management system for applications and server infrastructure; patch manager to automate the process of deploying, managing, and reporting on patches and configuration settings; and synthetic end user monitor to capture the user steps of any web application and monitor the end-user experience; storage manager that combines reporting, monitoring, and notification on the performance of storage resources; backup profiler to provide a consolidated view of the status of backup operations; virtualization manager to manage various aspects of virtual server infrastructure; and log and event manager to automate the collection and interpretation of logs. In addition, the company provides free tools, such as desktop, laptop, server-based, or internet-based applications; and tools and toolsets for specific solutions of routine and complicated tasks.

GMK
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of corn flour, wheat flour, tortillas, and other related products. Its products include rice, oats, packaged tortillas, grits, snacks, hearts of palm, tortilla chips, corn chips, and potato chips, as well as flatbreads comprising pita, naan, chapatti, pizza bases, and piadina. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells machines for the production of tortillas and tortilla chips under the TORTEC and BATITEC names. Its brands include JUANA, TIA BERTA, DECASA, ROBIN HOOD, POLAR, MONICA, ROBIN HOOD, LASSIE, REPOSADA, PODEROSA, SELECTA, DEMASA, FLOR DE TRIGO, MISIÓN, MASECA, MISSION, GUERRERO, TORTIMASA, MASARICA, MINSA, TORTI RICA, TOSTY, RUMBA, and LA TICA. The company offers its products to independent distributors, supermarkets, wholesalers, bakeries, cookie and pasta manufacturers, small grocery stores, tortilla and tortilla chip manufacturers, snack manufacturers, mass merchandisers, independent stores, food processors, restaurants, food service distributors, schools, hospitals, and military, as well as to governmental social welfare and distribution programs. It operates in the United States, Mexico, Venezuela, Central America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.

I am sure there are many more government lackey plays. If you happen to know any, feel free to share. In case you’re wondering what I am up to, it is to expand my current investment universe to include new names through traditional research. I’d also like to address the lack of comportment taking place in the comments section. Understand something and know your place. “The Fly” has made money every single year since he’s been blogging here, on an annual basis, and many years prior. I have an expansive track record and history in navigating the markets and do not shy away from the down times.

“The Fly” will rise up and drive rail spikes through the heads of his enemies. Just wait and see.

I’ve narrowed down my list of stocks that conform with certain growth and fundamental attributes that I favor.

Thus far, I am impressed with AMBA (they own the hi-def market for cameras) and ELLI, mixed on ULTI and ALXN.

Have a listen to the ELLI call and see for yourself. Housing is back and these guys are killing it.

Back to listening to calls.

On deck: BCEI, NCT, ECL, ERII, FLT, MWIV, RTEC, SNTS and SWI.

Minimum market caps of $5 billion, most up over past 3 months.

Winners

Losers

So Facebook is now leading the market higher, as AAPL makes new lows. Do you see how difficult that trade was to pull off? Just 3 months ago, AAPL was riding high and FB was wallowing in misery. The lesson to be learned here is nothing lasts forever and try to avoid following the herds, for they are wrong, more often than not.

Since the monumental win by Obama in November, solar stocks have ripped to the upside. If you take a look above, you will bear witness to staggering one month returns. I dare you to buy into the craze. You know they always last.

Separately, I’m awaiting an announcement regarding executive action against gun holders in America. Like it or not, the constitution isn’t being respected anymore. You cannot do anything about it. Let that sink in.

The government is going to protect you from criminals by stripping you of the tools that serve to defend you against them. The good news, post gun confiscation, is that gun crimes will plummet. Nevertheless, you will be forced to do mortal combat with your local burglar’s– hand to hand. I suggest taking some karate classes and get that creatine flowing into your bloodstream.

The demographics are changing and liberalism is attractive to an increasingly struggling and dependent populous. Feel free to leave if you don’t like it; but be careful of what country you’re moving to–as we might attack it later on.

I’m chilling, lamped up in my office 40% cash–looking for ideas. PPT members can view my immediate buy list for the stocks I am researching. I will be going old school on my next pick, having referenced the past 4 quarter’s conference calls before buying a share. It’s so important to hear the cadence of the CEO’s of these companies during calls to discern if they’re genuine.

HMC and VHC are my biggest positions–everything else is minor.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvobHRFWDrk

I sold out of EXK, effectively winding down all of my old, legacy positions sans VHC, FB and a few olde manned positions. The month of December was a very dark period for me and I am glad to move past it. I’m not proud to keep booking losses, but it’s better to get done with them instead of letting them fester.

As of right now, my #1 thesis trade is long Japan. Of course I am looking for new ideas and have missed out on plenty of superb ideas that have run past me, such as the recent cocaine gorilla run in casinos.

It appears Mr. Loeb took down a 9% stake in HLF, despite Bill Ackman’s 300 page report–panning it as a ponzi scheme. I am sure we will all find great entertainment in watching two spoiled rotten billionaires battle it out over a nefariously run multi-level marketing company.

Homebuilders are running higher and I’m pissed off for booking a quick gain in BZH. I am reexamining my options in the space.

I’ve thought long and hard about this and have concluded that I need to eliminate yet another industry from my investment menu: precious metals. Perhaps it’s coincidence, or not, but ever since the gold/silver trade has withered away, Jakegint has been scarce. I do believe Jakegint was sent to this site from space aliens to promote the purchase of gold/silver, since that’s what aliens do, apparently. My sources have informed me that he and his clan have mined all they could and returned to their planet, which would explain his absence.

It’s time to let go of the idea that American inflation is something to protect against. We’ve seen the Fed’s balance sheet triple over the years, yet oil and everything else hasn’t budged.

I will be selling out of EXK today and moving on.

What is investable?

That’s the trillion dollar question of course. We can’t buy dollar stores, like Dollar General, since the poor people don’t have enough money to buy vending machine toys anymore. The only venue left for real, sustainable, investment is technology. Innovation will not be limited to our borders and wayward economy. If something is good, it will sell on a global scale.

Domestically, I like housing and construction materials, but would prefer to buy a dip rather than chase up here.

Banking analysts are banging their African drums, while dancing around in their dashikis, praising the fundamentals of Citibank. I must be in some sort of parallel universe where this is actually true. I cannot get myself to invest in banks. It doesn’t appeal to me.

Semiconductors have become a perverted joke. They are nothing more than trading vehicles with zero leverage and pricing power for the long term. Companies like AAPL squeeze them. Biotech is gambling, unless of course you know some Doctors who are participating in trials who can offer you free advice in the form of data. That data can be used to guesstimate if the FDA will grant approval for their prospective drugs.

Restaurant stocks? Should I buy DIN because fatties love panned cakes or SONC because they just expanded their menu? Frankly, the only fast food joints worth anything are PNRA and CMG. Maybe retail names have a future, considering the wealthy have an insatiable demand for luxury. I am sure KORS is a terrific long term hold.

Decisions need to be made. I haven’t figured out where I want to put money now, but I know where I want to divest– and that is, good sir, to sell the shares of EXK and write it off along with the grace and presence of Jakegint.

Since 2006, I’ve been telling the internets to fuck itself, for a variety of reasons. For one, I was young, belligerent, and wanted to get a few points across. It is a fact when one uses profanity to deliver a message, it gets amplified. People pay attention to the message when it is outlandish and I used this to my advantage.

Also, my children were young and not really into the world of internet connectivity. My wife, as I’ve stated here numerous times, hardly knows the persona “The Fly” exists. I don’t believe she’s ever bothered to read the site, as she’s too busy dealing with keeping up with the fashions of the day.

But I’m afraid all good and bad things must come to an end. This will be my final profanity laden post. Frankly, I don’t care to use words of the profane nature in the real world, so why use them here? While it’s true, I do partake in the profane when jostling with friends: I never use this sort of verbose at home, especially around the kids.

My vocabulary is much greater than yours and I do not need the application of the profane to have my message understood and amplified. I’m a bit older now and definitely more mature. I’m no longer hopped up on Monster Energy beverages and I certainly do not drink coffee. Most importantly, my kids are getting older and I’d hate to become a source of ridicule for them sometime down the road.

Since this is my final profanity laden post, I’d like to offer a special “fuck you” to a number of people who’ve supported the site throughout the years, helping Le Fly (as he’s popularly known in France) become a household name, a great topic of debate at dinner tables across the continents of North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and Antarctica (fuck Africa).

The following people can fuck themselves:

The iBankCoin Staff
The iBankCoin IT Department, spearheaded by the Chevalier of Duluth, Vincenzo Illuminati
All Former iBankCoin Staff
Chuck Bennett
The Devil
All Readers and active participants of iBankCoin
All of the miscreants who I’ve banned throughout the years, all 2,000+
Howard Lindzon and his lovely sidekick Mr. Pearlman
Reformed Broker
CNBC
All fucktards who follow me on Twitter
All of the homeless men who I’ve had the pleasure and honour of kicking down stairs and idle manholes
Old fuckers in wheeled chairs
The assholes who swore to God the SBUX-TEA deal would fall apart
TIM (both of them)
Karl “Blue Blazer Special” Denninger
Abnormal Returns
The Kirk Report
Andy Swan and his stronger brother Landon
Dealbook
CNN Money
The Homosexuals over at SeekingAlpha
Jefferson Krull
The Yahoo Finance Message boards and all of its trolls
Market Troll
Chart swing trader
MarketSci
DinosaurTrader
Option addict
The Globe and Mail (faggots)
The Daily Crux
The retarded folks over at Stock.ly
Pattern Profits
Todds Trade
That asshole from New Zealand who may never be named
Business insider and their robot Joe Weisenthal
Zerohedge
UpsideTrader
Alphatrends
Dennis Kneele
Beccy Meehan
Brent Rose, actor extraordinaire who did “The Fly Show”
Investing Channel for selling ads on such a profane dwelling, supporting the 2nd amendment rights of our employee Woodshedder by allowing him to purchase assault weapons

Last but not least, I’d like to give a special “fuck off” to the assholes at WordPress who’ve made this blogging experiment run seamlessly throughout the years.

It’s the end of an era and the beginning of a new one. May the next era be filled with topped hatted gentlemen– strolling about these halls wearing white gloves armed with black canes, beating their pet monkeys about the cranium for shitting on the Persian rugs that we hold so dear.

UPDATE: Regrettably, in my haste, I forgot to offer a final “fuck you” to StockTwits founder and world class yachting racer, Soren Macbeth. Soren and I go back to the early 1980’s, when I’d blow up his tree houses with jelly jars filled with gunpowder. Today, Soren spends his time studying botany, in an effort to find a cure for homosexuality. It’s rumored that his beta cure is being used as we speak at the StockTwits HQ in sunny Coronado.

Today’s pullback is an early test for the bulls. We all know how important it is to get off to a good start. We came out of the gates running. But now we’re just lying around eating jam sandwiches, watching prices drop. Small cap stocks are still surging, which of course is a bad omen for the overall market. The other day we were so overbought, I honestly felt there was a chance the market could go on a tear. Sometimes I get sentimental and wish for things that aren’t possible or realistic.

You want to know what’s sad?

It’s sad to see gold/silver higher and the miners lower. I feel bad for Jakegint. I honestly do. These stocks are plain awful. I’ve been invested in EXK for months now, to no avail. Why in the world should I hold it when it goes lower everyday? Again, I yearn for normality and predictability. However, it seems the more money the Fed prints, the less inflation there is, partly due to the Fed’s ingenious decision to pay interest on reserves. Banks are parking money at the Fed, instead of lending it, because why bother taking risk if there’s a sure thing at home?

My Japanese stocks are down and the Yen has rallied. My holding period for these names is no less than 3 months. I know, The Fly is not known for holding onto stocks for so long, especially when they’re up–which they are not. But that isn’t true. You see, I am up 12% on VHC and haven’t sold a share. I hate the stock, love the idea, and hate the short sellers even more.

Bottom line: I’ve invested a lot of my money into this market and have bet on it going up, as have most of you. AAPL is up and the market is being tested early on. Let’s see if people have the stones to buy ahead of earnings season.

A long time ago, in a different era when “The Fly” reported for duty at a brokerage firm, beholden to the caprices of drug addled fiends, I used to go to work late, by design. Certainly the prim and proper managers disagreed, as it was customary to report for duty by 8am. Which reminds me, the first firm I worked at would fine their brokers $1,000 for coming in late, past 8am. There would be a morning meeting, hosted by the most influential person who I’ve ever met, who would absolutely destroy anyone that had the audacity to walk in late–as he delivered his morning sermon. This same firm had employed 100 cold callers with just 90 seats. If you were one of the unlucky 10 to come in late and not have a seat, you were sent home.

Back to the topic at hand.

The reason why I’d report to work late was because I wanted to avoid the urge to trade before 10am. The first half hour of trade is reserved for amateurs, young and small plebs who enjoy losing money in the markets. I do believe, as a matter of fact, that some plebs lose money on purpose, as some sort of sick, twisted perversion of capitalism.

That being said, it’s only 9:43am and stocks are moderately lower. But don’t think for a second that is means anything at all.

Remember what I just told you.

NOTE: I will be announcing a revolutionary change to iBankCoin later on today.

Everyone I talk to loves the story.

Apparently, UNXL has a new touchscreen technology that doesn’t require rare earths and is flexible, awesome and is going to change the world. The only problem that I have with the company is the fact that the stock is going to drop by 75% inside of 12 months. The same bozos who were pushing MVIS years ago are pushing UNXL today: MDB Capital.

It’s not that MDB is a bad company or thrusting frauds onto the public. It’s just that any honorable company worth its salt doesn’t hire them for investment banking. I can run through a list of names that have shot up, under the auspices of the MDB pump machine, only to come crashing down later in a flurry of punitive secondary offerings.

Remember, the goal of a company like MDB is to raise capital for their clients. They are concerned with fees first, shareholder value second.

Avoid.