I recall the top of the NASDAQ as if it was yesterday. Brokers running about, buying B2B internet stocks. Pikers making fortunes. And sales assistants were banking six figures because they managed a bunch of brokers who were doing 100k+ per month. For me, the New Years of 1999 was the epitome of hedonistic decadence, with the world on edge over absurd Y2K fears and the NASDAQ up 100% for the year.
Life was the very best before the end, the anti-climatic end to a period of extraordinary excess. A period when the local tailor would solicit about the brokerage firm, fetching thousands of dollars in gaudy shirt and tie sales. If it was a good month, some naive brokers, such as myself, would buy a suit or two.
The shoe shine boy and the barber downstairs both had 6 figs in the market and I was a millionaire at the age of 23, until it all ended.
Heading into the New Year’s, I cannot help to feel reminiscent over the year 1999. There are many similarities between 1999 and today, especially when looking at how easy the market has been, up every single month since August.
If this is “the end” and this is 1999, expect a weak January and a most spectacular February, followed by a top in March, one of the ages. It’s juvenile to believe history is going to repeat itself so quickly; but I thought it would be useful to know that the NASDAQ was up 19.03% in February of 2000 and fell 75% from summit–but no one knew it at the time and everyone had a hot tip and sure fire way to make another million, until they didn’t anymore.
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All the best to you sir and it has been a pleasure to be allowed in your house. Have a great New Year and I’ll see you here and on Twitter.
Indeud…
In 1999 my Lexus was paid for in cash out of profits in one stock – MRVC. I still drive said car. This is no 1999.
Remember Xcelera Inc? XLA
I remember XLA well … it dropped to the 20dma around 128 or so, so I bought some & my g/f at the time, who had a small account, put nearly her whole account in there. We go out in the early afternoon, come back & that sucker is halted. Reopens a bit little with some stupid news & BOOM .. goes up over 200 to around 215 & we hit that SELL SELL SELL button so fast! She was stoked, as was I . With that trade & a couple others, her account went from 15k to 35k overnight. Insanity!
Fuck your old ass car.
MRVC was my first big winner…had 100% of my porfolio in it for a 1000% gain.
Its been a long time, but i believe i lost it all in a day or two in March of 2000.
That’s how it works. The casino collects its profits all in a day or two.
Ill never forget…i was on my web brokerage account trying like hell to get a sell order in. The whole system was melting down. I was long, probably 200%, so I lost my 1000% gains in that one day, but it was heading for an even worse outcome.
I couldn’t believe the performance of that broker and the fact that I literally couldn’t manage to place a fucking order as the market was cratering.
I finally got out and I did end up going negative a bit. Had to send them a check.
Still makes me angry to this day …not about the market, but about the brokerage execution problems.
Anyway, better to learn that lesson then, when i was only 25 or whatever. More expensive to learn it later…
The 99 Lexus ES 300 was one of the finer looking vehicles they ever put out. Good buy.
I think the Nasdaq fell closer to 80% after the pin-prick but what’s 5% plus or minus.
The reason I don’t feel its a top is because, cab drivers and others have no stock tips to speak of. not yet anyway.
regards
Chuck Bennett
CHQU
Ask your next cab driver how his portfolio is doing.
Fly, you sound suddenly wary of the future?
Short term top always possible, but this is not a bubble top, otherwise stocks like TSLA, TRLA, LNKD would not have pulled back 30, 50%.
There is still too much disbelief and even fear of calamity in the financial system or elsewhere. In 1999-2000 there was no fear, of anything, everyone was high.
OA’s twitter trade sure felt 99’ish.
I feel that 2014 will be the year of the chop. Homework and dedication is must. 2013 was so damn easy on the long side that too many people will get sucked into a false sense of security that comes from a ridiculous bull run.
BALT, GOGO, and AAPL reclaiming 700 are my leading choices for 2014 at this moment.
matt_bear, do you have Twitter? I like the $BALT and $GOGO picks.
Fly:
I think we’re in a different era in terms of how the Fed runs monetary policy. If the Fed is indeed running something close to NGDP targeting the economic declines will be shallower as the monetary bite won’t be as harsh.
Stocks will do well in this new era.
The Australian CB has run monetary policy close to a form of NGDP targeting although they don’t call it so and the market has performed exceedingly well. There hasn’t been a recession in Australia for 22 years… True.
Yeah, I remember that January correction in early 2000. Remember what started the big crash? Barrons cover saying internet stocks were “overvalued.” Remember “Winners of the New World” by Cramer? Those were the days.
lil overbought …
correction coming
CAPES up again…BALT sailing on
new highs being made..6.50
BALT = WNR = LE FLY