Now, it isn’t always the case, but typically when the mob is leaning one way, the exact opposite is about to happen. Too many of you misread the signals by what is stated on this blog, penned by an eccentric, professional money manager with almost two decades of success. What I am pointing to, rather, is overwhelming bearishness in a particular sector, like social media 6 months ago, Apple right now and gold after yesterday’s close.
The pattern keeps repeating itself and it’s always hard to bet the other way.
I don’t mean to tout my algorithms again; but it was built for this very thing: mean reversion. When the crowd is too bullish or bearish, the algos pick up on it and register overbought/oversold signals. The system weeds out the weak signals and pronounces the ones to pay attention to.
Here is a post done two days ago, inside of the private confines of The PPT, regarding Apple and gold.
Let me couch this great call on gold with the fact that I didn’t participate. I am not a machine, subject to the whims and emotional opinions that all humans are saddled with. However, the results are convincing and for those who took this advice made a year’s worth of gains today, short DUST or long NUGT, AG, IAG or EGO.
Several days ago, we were all bearish on stocks. Yesterday we were optimistic. Today we are on edge, waiting for direction. The media exasperates what we are feeling, sometimes coercing us to make poor financial decisions. This is important to remember, especially for those new in the business: things aren’t always what they seem. The direction is never clear and 75% of what you hear in the media is hyperbole, meant to attract viewers, like a soap opera.
Get some conviction on something that you are passionate about and stick with it for the duration.
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That is some solid advise, well said sir. Human psychology is undoubtedly the most important factor in trading. We can study the fundamentals all we want but if you don’t have the balls to buy in times of negative sentiment, you won’t make money.
Great advice. Thanks!
exk…ready to go??
I always see these questions and Fly never answers them. If you want to get the PPT info and find out what he likes break piggy and spend the fifty bucks and signup for the PPT.
George Carlin on Soft Language… posted it b/c of previous post.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h67k9eEw9AY&feature=endscreen&NR=1
sipping martini’s with friends on a yacht somewhere in the Caribbean. i new were we were when we started but it seems the fog set in some time last month. yesterday the fog lifted. i can see for miles.
you changed your mind lk 5 times in the past 3 days…market is going lower for the next couple months. short all rallies. long spy puts.
You are incorrect. His mind changed 5001.342 times.
http://youtu.be/IxNw8OhmVZE
NDLS. what a move. must be an IPO record, at least until the last 20 minutes or so.
Made a lot of my gains back by being long into the pullback, only to blow off my fingers with BBRY. At least I have the rest of the year to grow them back?
What are your intentions regarding BBRY
Took my losses and got out. Too many other good stocks to invest in.
The only thing I haven’t changed my mind about this year is YELP. I called for $34 here months ago and…ya. Otherwise nothing is more changeable than my opinion in this insane mess.
I had yelp first
Pretty sure you meant exacerbates. That is to say, to make a situation more negative, i.e. to worsen. Of course, had you been educated in Canuckistan you would know the proper use and context. Yes, this is pointy sticking you for your untoward comments regarding the land of the frozen tundra earlier today. Good evening, it’s 9p.m. and we only have barely enough sunlight to finish the back nine.
You did indeed.
“Get some conviction on something that you are passionate about and stick with it for the duration.”
Good advice. I have had none for months so I am trading light. If you don’t feel it don’t trade as much. The mojo will return…
When you don’t trade, complacency settles in.
Fuckin brilliant
Can we show a little decorum, please?
The market can alter directions on a whim so why get your jimmies rustled when a commentator on the market changes *GASP* with the market!?
Is there an issue with the iOS app twitter feed. Haven’t had content feed in a week. Deleted and reinstalled app. Any suggestions?
And in other news.. A blogger with the handle”Fake Amish” is being investigated for pedophilia. He often posts on IBANKCOIN Polk County Sheriffs are investigating. Oh btw. Buy buy buy IMMR !
Why is this site not renamed iDevilCoin.com?
Easily the smartest stock picker on the site
This is not necessarily great advice. Would you buy BBRY here? And I’m not confident on AAPL; they haven’t had any new winner in the pipeline for a while now.
This kind of advice leads to doubling/tripling/quadrupling down on such companies as Kodak and Petsmart. Sure, in retrospect they were obvious zeroes, but there was debate all the way down.
I prefer to not catch falling knives.
It sounds like iflyj is at Mach 3 and missing a few points. If you land safely , take the time to figure out what the word, ‘conviction’ means and how it is used in the context of trading and investing. Conviction wed to lack of knowledge has no gay rights issues.