I went into today’s trade 60% cash. I’ve been in that position since yesterday morning. Even with most of my assets in cash, I lost 3% today. That’s freakin’ ridiculous and I feel like killing someone for that. But then I sit back and think about all of the plebs out there, the less informed, who stepped into today 200% long, then feel a sense of relief that intelligent life still exists and it’s me.
Towards the end of the session, I sold YGE for a 6% loss. I did so because it can drop another 7% tomorrow. It’s better to take small losses than the largess varietal.
Look, this is very simple, people. It’s either different this time, or not. Well is it?
LISTEN TO ME YOU STUPID BASTARD.
In the past, according to the algos inside the halls of The PPT, stocks bounced quickly and hard when the technicals deteriorated like this. We’ve hit these dour technical levels 8 times over the past year, and 7 times the market bounced for an average return of 3% over a 10 day period. HOWEVER, the data is unconvincing over 1-3 days, with mixed results. I’m objective enough and smart enough to understand that nothing lasts forever, not even POMO.
The Risk Appetite Index has been warning about the danger out there for more than a month. For those of you who are unitiated, the RAI is an index inside of The PPT that tracks credit, worldwide. Have a look.
It’s different this time because Bernanke is going to retire from the Fed and because China is undergoing a credit scare. To alleviate pressures, China will need to cut rates and fast. There is going to be a tradeable low soon–but it isn’t today.
My gut tells me China does a rate cut Sunday night.
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FIG.
I was up almost 8% today from TZA
$ANGI closed unchanged
Perhaps we should be begin compiling a list of stocks that are not levered to Chinese growth; insulated from fuckery but attractive at lower levels. Stocks levered to Chinese growth may be the most attractive to short now.
Of course the market pulls shit like this right after I get a new Omega for myself.
sweet earnings out of $RAD, bout at 2.82
I nibbled at the close. Playing a bounce off this support rightchere
Thanks for this post Dr, I needed it.
Oh and do you really think stupid bastards can listen?
Everyone talks about stocks market and commodity crash / I think credit is a bigger problem… look at munies or emerging markets debt… holy shit, they look like world is coming to the end… they are bonds for God sake.. crazy times
Completely agree…major issues always start to show up in the credit markets first. There’s a reason they say stocks are “dumb money”
It’s about confidence… Nothing is safe, especially something that is considered “safe” to the extent that everyone who ever wanted to buy bonds has done so.
Capital is positioning in a prelude to a turning point that isn’t here yet. The major turns require major capital shifts to set things up.
Entire counties have positioned very aggressively using deficient spending doubling and tripling down on a bet that it will produce growth without ever considering what if they are wrong and deficit spending won’t work when the whole world is doing it.
Capital is staying one step ahead on that question, asking “what if governments can’t honor their debt?
What if haircuts and “bank robbery” “bail-ins” like Cyprus is the new normal? what iabout the restriction of natural market forces? what if the NSA keeping a camera on everyone to hunt down every last dime at all costs… and monitor those with a goal of ending corruption… To prevent people like Spitzer from stopping the corruption via a prostitution charge forcing him to step down. The economic consequences of limiting capital flows be damned.
Well if the people aren’t allowed to clean up the corruption just as every corrupt empire has ended, the economic laws will cause it to via exodus of wealth in bonds, destruction of sovereign wealth and even wars forcing government to ljmit power. and when they feel their way of being threatened, they will come out funs ablazing.
The barbarians raided the Romans when they had weakened themselves financially for personal gain, exploiting the soldiers with military unfunded pensions and emptied the treasuries and even diluted the money supply in the process. The communist Russians and the Germans faced their exodus of capital as a consequence for bad policy.
The “promise the world and fund it on the next administrations dime” policy is dead. As a result state sponsored socialism is dying starting with Europe. The entire macro-political landscape is going to change even if it requires a war of governments, or even the governments against the people.
This is about so much more than just capital moving around, but is a prelude to everything as we know it changing in a major way.
Wait 5 yrs if not sooner, and it will all make sense if we survive it and avoid entering a “dark age” of sorts.
While I may seem dramatic for a few ticks lower, it all starts somewhere. The curious thing will be to see where all the capital from the global bond markets (tens of trillions) will end up. Even if it goes into currency,it will make its way out into risk.
If we can survive these large currents at force, there will be a new bubble in risk, which will eventually force its way out into the next major financial superpower/government powerhouse engine for prosperity…
But we could set up one final run into bonds first to create a top in government-economic confidence…
Either way everything is going nuts and it will reach new stages of insanities due to the larger instruments of capital (debt markets) in play here trying to figure out where to move its capital next, and everyone else reacting with tons and tons of confusion over what’s happening and why.
The tightening credit as a result of bond selloff may cause huge crashes, but that will only set up for greater buying opportunities since those selling bonds on a lagging basis will out that capital to work and buy the margin calls of the confused.
Hard to not “consider”. Part of a plan
All in the last 4 weeks, all of a sudden. 1666 close (yes not top), yield range break, minicrash Japan, Reits cracked, index swings, Mideast oil range break (came back in), taper talk
A lot all happening at once. Coincidence? Could be
as i reap on the skin of your gains, i cant feel but remorse for you’re stupidity
This looks like the Summer of 2010 or late Summer 2011 in PPT scores where the % of stocks rated buy spent multiple days and weeks in an out of sub-10%.
Going for a bounce may leave one stuck holding and waiting or even have to consider averaging down if jumping in too early.
Here’s to a sweet reward rally come early/late fall.
It’s funny how all this BS happens during the summer months. Coincidence?
I love (hate) all those saying sell in may didn’t work this time. (saying in mid-may late-may)
Yes. It did. It did! Stupid F&*dk**#*tards
If you sold in may you were rewarded
most people who visit this site are traders – if they sold in may they bought in june… traders are known for not be able to sit still
That was addressed to MARKETWATCH type writers. So quick to conclude June would be fine even though it had just started
ya, sitting still, tearing hair on whether to double down or exit, for better or worse makes me a trader too
The difference is the guillotenes being built around the world by the unemployed youth. When the price of a fucking painting would feed a small country the froth always blows off then blows up. The clams seem to be doing this on purpose. They must like the scalp a bit.
you r gonna see the light. but in might not be the light you hoped for, curly headed jew kid.
Fuck you, razor.
Clam Gone. This is Nymph’s World Now…New China Govt is not interested in cutting rates, they have more interest in prosecuting all the people that took advantage of them in their 2009 stimulus give away. .
Broke boomers not looking good on the whole new hips, sex change, perish peacefully in a hospital on the youths tab.
This clown flip flops more than John Kerry and we’re supposed to believe ANYTHING he says??? Listen to the devil instead
keep that in mind.
You are not required to believe anything. Just watch what I do.
This is the same fucker who called for May to be a bloodbath and it wasn’t the case. I’m sure he used his proprietary indicators at the end of April to come to that conclusion as well.
Its all poo, i love Transformers, UP THE DECEPTICONS, honestly cars fighting awesome like battle crafts >:D….anyway, i was excited about these movies and was shattered to hear they changed Prime from a flat nose to that thing, and bumblebee, well yeah i can reason to that we arent in the 60’s anymore and lets face it a beetle would be crushed but at least a beetle is parked next to him in the sale yard in number 1…the matrix was a let down for me and Devastator i was so hoping to see these mammoth in his true form but they took that away from me, they have taken Hot Rod away, and have we even seen Sound blaster yet??? and honestly how many of us loved seeing the Cassettes come flying out to have laserbeak and the others?…i expected change with the new movies, but i thought they could have kept to the original story line a bit more closer but i suppose its holywood, we are just the suckers who pay for what we get told to watch right??….i suppose my last dream to see UniCron IN THE SAME FASHION AS FIRST TYPE would be wayyyyyyyyyyyy to much to ask for