There is a possibility that the Chinese credit crisis to come is about to happen right now. There has been a violent move higher in short term rates in China, something new, something really bad. We all know China has been persona non-grata for most of the bull run, since 2009. However, they could become incredibly relevant if their economy screeches to a halt due to a credit crisis.
However, any continued tightening in credit will be relieved by the Chinese through emergency rate cuts, so there is a catalyst to trade on. That’s why I am not shorting, but opting for cash.
If China goes to hell in a hand basket tonight, longs will lament the day they were born tomorrow.
Let it close without your participation. Raise cash and pick your next fight carefully. This is just beginning.
My buy list is focused around housing, tech and financials.
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Sagely advice sir.
Le maestro played this virtuoso-like … well done, sir
Did you bail from the YGE? You seem quite averse of all things China.
Sometimes you are good
but man, your notes are perfect
right now.
Ghost cities are coming to an end.
Listen to the Dr. LISTEN!
In other news – I have been told by a pro that about 30% of TSX gold juniors have less than 2 months of cash on hand…. consider that as most PM juniors are Canadian… I have no official data or link to support that… if this is true – PM selloff might get much uglier …
FD: I have no long or short position in PMs as of today.
If that so, DUST will be the KING.
True. The net asset values are zero at this point.
But that bodes well for the price of gold…..at some point. Shortages = Higher prices.
In time possibly…. the question is when.
Wait for the bankruptcies to hit and gold to go under $1200, if not $1000
Yeah not just The fed/Clam. Us bears obviously tracking ‘worldwide’ bubbles. How many major economies fighting slowing forces at once? Ever that many in history? Pressure on that dam will eventually start cracks somewhere.
great post as always..my ONE major concern today, no panic whatsoever..its all too cute and that makes me very nervous
Just curious Fly, if you are still thinking about buying TLT in July.
Yes
Fuck China. Inordinate panic chatter surrounds expiration. Amazing coincidence.
Spot on, bra!
you can fuck it or it can fuck you… whaever you prefer… it’s a free market
being over 70% cash had to nibble myself. Went large UUP yesterday – under 22 is almost a freebie there. Sold out of MKTO again today, catch it on the next gap down. Still riding TXTR long. Could not avoid grabbing a large chunk of OLP just over 20 – exdiv date tomorrow. And caught some TWO at 10.50. About a week to go on that sick 15% qd, so really just a dime position there at this point, will add if this becomes a 3 dayer. prolly sell some of my vix today.
I am shorting the hell out of JCP and other falling retail giants right now. China credit crisis is looming hard.
Anyone who believes this is hyperbole – this is culmination of their being found out over copper scheming a few weeks ago and now nobody wants to lose face when they have to show their empty books to the other bankers.
Watching socktwits traders jumping into the fire is like some kind of horror movie….
They should all start reading your blog.
Okey-dokey, Ladies, now we go up!
No really, the pleasure is all mineI
{doffing cap to Le Fly [extra Doom ‘n Gloom]}
Fly,
If China is going to credit crisis and everything is going down,
Why wouldn’t PM be the safe haven? it keeps going down
Gold is in liquidation. Forced selling.
Thanks for the reply,
Appreciate it
Since 2009 I have been watching the fucking Shanghai Copper Bubble form. No one stopped it. No one warned us about it. NOW it looks like we are finally popping. China Banks, State Owned and Shadow lent SO much Money to commodity dealers to speculate in Copper, etc. They even used Copper to finance even new loans. NOW talk is BOC saw a default last nigh and PBOC had to have Govt help them out. LOOK at the FLASH PMI’s out of China last night….this is SO UGLY and Bubbles always Pop. What amazes me is that it took so long, Clams Hate Them.
Ouups, I wrote to you. ” You’ve been giving us warning. You got it.”
I wasn’t sure if it was for me or Fly…It will go Boom, lol.
You’ve been giving us warning. You got it !!
Yes he did and I expect another massive blog tonight about what his thoughts are here.
sold YGE
70% cash
Mr Fly, reread your post in a day, or two… you are being a bit hysterical, sister … China is not the problem.
The inevitable, is in the mail.
English, please
Bankrupt
it is so strange to be out of the market and watch it … weird feeling of emtyness … this is 2nd time in 20 years I did
Remember what you have told me in the past Old Turkey, better to be out of the market wishing you were in, than in the market wishing you were out!
So are you expecting 08-09 style crash instead reasonable 8-10% correction ?
I expect a larger correction, not crash… but I can change my mind depending on what happens in Asian session… and I agree with Dr.Fly 100% on this blog
The only way this turns into 2008 is if an American financial institution goes belly up.
Seems unlikely.
NUGT my target was 5.94 before market open and .. they said no way …
sure, whatever
great fun
PPT: Suit up! You’re going in!
all due respect i think there are a lot of reasons to sell longs here but this aint one. shibor is up because the govt isn’t providing liquidity. it’s a monetary event, not a credit event. it’s not a sign of stress in my opinion and could be reversed, as you say, overnight
silver down 8% in a day.incredible. love this volatiltiy. that being said, unloaded half my VXX postion at 22.97. lot of forced selling today. i will be hard pressed not to shop tomorrow if we sell off again in the a.m. fingers crossed.
No matter wut happens on wall street. I always keep hustlin cuz da big bearded clam can’t control the prices on MLK blvd bitches.
Fuck you, you’re DEAD. sorry I just felt like saying.. Do you really think the Central Banking Cartel is going to allow it all to go to smoke, not. This just puts a higher target on PMs for 2016. TRUTH.
The best trade is sell opium to the Chinese
Not funny at all you pig racist. Their history with opium abuse should stay in the past.
That being said, if you were to give those cool eyed individuals opium… I would long the fu*k out of everything manufacturing in ching chong land. Working proficiency would increase by 30 ten folds.
Laughing!
You better be you ugly serf.
I get people like you to fil upl my toilet up with Pellegrino just to see the effects of bubbles around my logs.