iBankCoin

Reasonably Sane in a Fucking Nuts Market

I’ve been unusually calm during this nutzo market, holding positions as they get flayed. I have three stocks down more than 7% today, on no news, based upon nothing. Coal stocks, as a whole, are going to zero, yet gold is going up.

Just 30 minutes ago, I was down 1% for the day. I am now down 3% and heading lower.

Everyone is pessimistic, as there is little reason to believe in anything but negativity. I’ve never seen so many one sided opinions, people calling for massive declines, and everyone being right at the same time. Everyone is a pro; and calling for lower prices seems to be a very popular meme these days. Usually the herd is wrong. However, these days, betting against the market has been like shooting fish in a barrel.

Looking ahead, I doubt there will be any buyers in Asia tonight. First thing tomorrow, Europe is going to get their meat chopped off. There is little reason to be long, post anti-climatic bailout, ahead of the Greek elections. You might see some short covering on Friday and depending on the outcome of the elections, a fierce run next Monday. After that, we have the Fed to look forward to. Should things continue to deteriorate, rest assured, QE3 will be on the table.

I was only looking for one great trade before the summer began, in order to kiss the market goodbye until Fall. I did recapture 12% last week and put myself firmly in the green again. However, with today’s -3% and somber outlook, I risk giving back much of last week’s nirvana, over the next few days.

I don’t lose like this. My macro-plays are rarely wrong; therefore, despite what the Twitter mood ring says, I am holding out for something better.

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70 comments

  1. TraderRick

    YELP, looks like it’s being traded by the algo bots. WTF up/down, huge moves but not winning as an investment.

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  2. chivo

    after a few years of watching you, i’ll admit i’m a bit surprised you’re holding on here after the 12% run last week and the sell the news drop today

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  3. TeahouseOnTheTracks

    A reminder posted a few days ago:

    “Short term support is at the OEW 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1328/35 and then 1342/47. Once these two levels are cleared resistance would occur at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots.”

    Just as OEW predicted, we hit 1335 and got turned away and support at 1313 held and we bounced there …

    Charge … fallback …. Charge again!

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  4. razorsedge

    fly, take it easy, dont let the sound of your own wheels drive you crazy. lighten up while you still can, dont even try to understand. just find a place and take a stand…

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  5. Genghis Khan

    Yelp – down.
    AAPL – down.
    ANR – down.
    MTW – down.
    ZNGA – down.
    CPST – down.
    FB – down.

    What’s up?

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    • razorsedge

      tza.

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    • Bullish

      Funny, I have not seen you post a single trade ever. You must have been long last week, sold the open and shorted it down. You so smart.

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      • alf44

        … my “fade the gap” post from last week lookin’ pretty damn good now … ehhh, Bullish ?

        .

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        • Bullish

          I think that was still 200 Dow pts lower… but maybe not. I don’t have time to track your trades either.

          Good luck Alf, we missed you last week.

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          • alf44

            … well, you’re a bit off in your interpretation … but, oh well !

            And, as promised … I’ve been adding to my SHORT (both on fri. of last week and this morning).

            —

            Suffice it to say, the “call” was a correct one !

            .

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          • alf44

            … and yet, as a result of making it … I sit in “jail” !

            Fair ???

            Hardly !!!

            .

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    • The Fly

      BANNED (not you Alf)

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    • The Fly

      I dont own ANR

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  6. mhass33

    Gold and silver won’t be up long. It’s hugh hendry time

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  7. riggedgame

    Those fuckin’ CLOWN guests on CNBC. They say “The market will rally to 1450 (S&P) before the election, in anticipation of Romney willing”.

    Never mind, you fuckin’ Republican CLOWNS. Ignore the fact that stocks have doubled under Obama, and corporate profits / cash are at RECORD HIGHS.

    Ignore the fact that stocks dropped 40% during 8 years of Bush.

    Ignore the FACT that stocks do twice as well under Dem Presidents compared to GOP presidents.

    Just keep on being STUPID Republicans, the dumbest people on God’s Green Earth.

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    • Dog

      Isn’t it the market does well under a Dem. prez and a Rep. Congress?

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      • riggedgame

        I am talking PRESIDENTS – inauguration day to last day in office, irrespective of Congress. Why complicate a simple historical fact?

        BUY everything the day a Dem is inaugurated.

        SELL EVERYTHING the day a Republican is inaugurated.

        You will be a rich man.

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        • Bullish

          Do you consider yourself to be an angry individual? Always so politically hostile.

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          • Dog

            LOL… How ’bout that Heat… 🙂

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          • Bullish

            Kudos to Lebron. No pastrami sandwiches for him till next week.

            GO OKC!

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          • Dog

            Anybody but the Heat huh?…LOL.

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          • Bullish

            I would root for my team, but they were out of contention the day LBJ decided to take his talents to south beach.

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          • Dog

            Cleveland…I hear you. He could have handled “The Decision” a different way.

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          • TeahouseOnTheTracks

            +1

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          • riggedgame

            I consider mysaelf sane, rational, and RICH after starting with nothing.

            I consider Republicans INSANE, irrational, stupid and (unfortunately) well-off, after getting that big inheritance from their Dem granddaddy and that high paying job (that they fuck up) from their
            daddy’s rich pals.

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          • mhass33

            Politics are a joke, hating on one side and not the other is just plain stupidity

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          • The Fly

            They all suck Rigged.

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          • Dog

            Agree.

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          • Bullish

            I think there are crazies on both sides, left and right.

            I prefer us independents in the middle, neither political party can make me comit to them.

            But I will be voting Romney, and fit none of your sterotypes listed above.

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          • riggedgame

            OK by me. Defy history, defy the Obama market and corporate conditions. Join the CNBC nitwits who will experience worse times over the next 4 to 8 years.

            I hope Romney wins – so I can get my “I told you so’s” in.

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          • Frog

            No need for you to get your blood pressure up, Riggedgame. Obama is going to win, no problem. Go do some meditation or exercise or something that lets steam off of you, so that you will be around to enjoy it, instead of stroking out.

            Investment web site people usually believe all the standard Right Wing beliefs, so don’t expect anyone here to agree with you. But most voters are a different story.

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          • thistimeitsdifferent
            thistimeitsdifferent

            Who will do more damage? Romney or a lame duck Obama with 4 more years and no care about running again? Four more years to enact his communist dreams! Obama’s motto: “Death by Fairness!”

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          • TeahouseOnTheTracks

            Stop drinking the tea party kool aid and get real zombie …

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        • Dave

          LMAO “irrespective of Congress”.. yeah, cause that’s not important at all huh?
          You are foolish

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    • Dave

      If you think things boil down to being as simple as that, you are one ignorant man. Not to mention extremely angry. How have those Dems been to California.

      ps. You’re a dipshit!

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  8. flyaway18

    Fly, when I check on your positions the screen says Watchlist; do you really have all those positions or is the wrong screen in your Fly Positions.

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  9. Drewdog12380

    WOW – Close at the absolute low of the day! Jesus F’in Christ.

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  10. Dave

    On the bright side, I’m looking forward to CPST earnings this week. They are so close they can taste it!

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  11. vegastrader

    Only way for Greece or Spain to jumpstart growth is a 20-50% devaluation. US too.

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  12. 4fl3x

    Went back and read Master Fly’s tweets from last night… ah the good old days.

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  13. dave

    SNAFU. Everybody and his brother would have called this a positive day.

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  14. razorsedge

    dmnd to delay restatement, thats it in a nutshell, so to speak.

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  15. Patrick

    It was a shittybank kind of day.

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  16. OG

    Weird and depressing day. Was so happy being long before bed last night…

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  17. Mr. Cain Thaler
    Mr. Cain Thaler

    Lol @ “Twitter mood ring”

    Didn’t you know it’s the new tape…

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  18. Dr Funk

    Risk trade off, is on

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  19. Yogi and Boo Boo
    Yogi and Boo Boo

    Just like a bad kidney stone, this too shall pass.

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    • Testicules

      But as a REALLY BAD kidney stone, much blood, pain and grinding shall continue…..similar to a swift kick in the nuts and the lingering after effects..

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  20. fomoiri

    How is it that, if things are so A#fucking1 according to the political pea brains here, YOUR Federal Reserve says the net worth of the average American family has declined nearly 40% during the last three(3) years. Oh right, fuck you who gives a shit about the av Amer fam?

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    • razorsedge

      dont mention facts, it gets in the way.

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      • Frog

        Everyone picks out the facts that support their own viewpoint and ignore those that support other viewpoints.

        So facts do not end up mattering because they never persuade anyone of anything. People generally believe what their friends or families believe.

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  21. Dr. Bill B.

    Somebody asked earlier about Stevie the neighbor guy. Somebody needs to go over there and check on him.

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  22. Yelp = Yell for Help
    Yelp = Yell for Help

    SPX 1225 this week – its coming

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  23. tehchip

    This is what I expected. I think its time to sell my shorts – the next bottom will be time, since all the bulls just capitulated.

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    • razorsedge

      i was just thinkin that…everybodys on 1 side of the boat, will sell tza at the open, or not….lol

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  24. dave

    Jakegint,

    Get out of the miners now.

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  25. Hem

    Fly, tell us more about why Morgan Stanley shouldn’t loan out shares of FB. Really interested in why you think it’s negative publicity, given stock lending facilitates the sale of puts to customers. I understand if you didn’t realize that the trading of options depends on a liquid stock loan market, just wondering if there is more to your opinion than that. Thanks in advance.

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    • The Fly

      Hem

      Any chance I get to shit on MS I will. Don’t look too deep into my post.

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      • Hem

        your post is wrong though. shit on them for the right reasons, ie pumping a fucked up deal. hate to think your followers would think an i-bank lending out shares is a bad thing. it’s actually one of the things that keep markets functioning.

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  26. smerdyakov

    Only winning move in this market is not to play–haul away your loot from last week and put the rest under the mattress. I’m still bearish here and holding some SPY puts from the open along with a few other choice selections, but I kind of just want to get the fuck out at open tomorrow. Anyone who pretends to know something about this market is a liar–there are simply too many technical and fundamental and news and mood variables to factor in. The only thing that’s certain is that all possible numbers are on the table: swings of plus or minus five percent a day is becoming the norm.

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  27. Tommy Boy

    Anyone who pretends to know something about this market is a liar–there are simply too many ”

    ahem didn’t you just step on your own dick?

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