Do you want to know why I am so emphatic about NOT being a bear? Look at the people who are professing the doom and the gloom and the fucking lightening to the face trading action. They are small turtles, scared of foot steps, creeping around like zombies eating flesh. I cannot and will not keep company with your ilk. Understand something, many of these people were screaming on roof tops about inflation 2 months ago. I’ve always asserted, The Hugh Hendry, long treasuries, would be back in style one day, much to your chagrin.
How many of these little burlap’d bears were telling you to buy TBT because, for the love of haunted houses, rates just had to go up?
WHAT HAPPENED?
I will tell you what happened, AND MORE.
The Frakenstein Economy (h/t BP) lost its 10,000 gigawatts and sunk back into oblivion. We never really crawled out from the shithole of 2008. The Fed and the Treasury gave corporations time to mend their balance sheets and they did so with great vigor. At the present, corporations hold nearly $2 trillion in cash, buttressing any bullshit dip in the dollar. All of you dollar homos needs to take a look, in earnest, at the dollar and quit calling for its demise. It is the standard.
Over the past month, commodity related stocks have signaled a sharp drop in economic output. It is my belief this avalanche of negative sentiment started with the debt ceiling snowball. As a result, sentiment plummeted and corporations stopped investing.
Take a look at some of these Basic Material losers, over the past month, absolutely staggering.
No. Ticker 1-month Return Industry Market Cap Sector
1 PCX -49.71 Industrial Metals & Minerals 1,120,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
2 HUN -41.77 Chemicals – Major Diversified 2,810,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
3 CIE -41.46 Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 3,360,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
4 WLT -40.67 Industrial Metals & Minerals 4,630,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
5 MT -40.45 Steel & Iron 30,300,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
6 CHMT -40.33 Specialty Chemicals 1,070,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
7 SD -40.28 Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 2,680,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
8 NBR -39.62 Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 4,720,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
9 ACI -38.87 Industrial Metals & Minerals 3,710,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
10 ANR -37.61 Industrial Metals & Minerals 6,550,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
11 KEG -36.83 Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 1,790,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
12 KRO -36.03 Specialty Chemicals 2,320,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
13 MMR -36.00 Independent Oil & Gas 1,810,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
14 NFX -35.83 Independent Oil & Gas 6,180,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
15 HSC -35.66 Steel & Iron 1,630,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
16 ATI -35.31 Industrial Metals & Minerals 4,550,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
17 CPX -35.11 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 1,950,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
18 WOR -34.24 Steel & Iron 1,150,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
19 WTI -34.12 Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 1,360,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
20 SOA -33.76 Specialty Chemicals 1,830,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
21 ALB -33.76 Synthetics 4,250,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
22 SGY -33.69 Independent Oil & Gas 1,090,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
23 TS -33.67 Steel & Iron 18,260,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
24 CRZO -33.49 Independent Oil & Gas 1,070,000,000 BASIC MATERIALS
Now, this is telling us one of two things. Either we are entering some sort of fucked up vortex, where only Hugh Hendry gets to dance, while the rest of us get beaten to death with sugar canes. Or, this is nothing more than fear begetting more fear, due to negative sentiment. I’ve seen this type of carnage before and it doesn’t always precede recession. Sometimes investors just sell shit for the sake of selling it.
Of course, there is more evidence pointing to recession than boom time. And, as always, one should be diligent in picking stocks and price points. However, at some point, this all gets priced in, like it or not. When stocks start going up again, even on bad news, you will know we hit bottom. Until then, survive.
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FIFG
I bought the Sp’s at 1115 and will hold for a day or two.
Hopefully, my horse won;t break down
FIFG
Fly is a fuggin genius
Fuck the haterz
Futures are green now (not that it means shit nowadays), hopefully not another bloodbath tomorrow or else it’s Cup O Noodles for the week.
Yeah, most probably the sky is not falling but for now when we have a lot of stocks falling $5 a day lately we better make sure we make some money on the short side
If I owned XYZ and it went from $10 to $16 in two weeks, I’d take profits. Why doesn’t this logic resonate with bears?
Answer: they are idiots, playing the same record all day long.
Historically, that is why it is called going SHORT, because trades were held for a short amount of time.
Definetly a sell off to beget sell off situation, margin calls etc pushed this to extremes.
Queston is, is it done?
I want to see how they deal with Hugo and the gold piece now, will they take gold to the woodshed? if they do this could bring markets lower for margin calls and covering.
just thinking out loud.
Gold is going to get shellacked soon. I don’t know when it happens, but when it does, all the taxi drivers will be wondering what happened. I am not calling for a top in gold. The top is infinity when the dollar becomes worth 0. If you think “this is it,” and the dollar is completely done, you are wrong. There are way too many forces at play that won’t let that happen just yet.
I was blind sided by the drop over the last month. Didn’t expect this to start happening till next year. Now that is has happened, though, I don’t see this market regaining its footing. We have been in recession all along and things have been getting worse. Reality may actually be setting in now…
I just don’t see the governments around the world letting it end so easily though. They will fight with everything they have, the can will be kicked down the road until the road ends in a cliff. The cliff can be seen on the horizon now, but I don’t think it’s here just yet.
You are mentally ill.
If we kick the can off the cliff then the can is gone and we can go back to kicking other stuff, end of problem. Of course that assumes the nasty stuff stays in the can at the bottom of the cliff and we stay up top. Hopefully the can does not cause a nuclar splosion when it hits bottom. Anyway it’s worth the risk. I say we implement the kick the can off the cliff solution.
not waistin time, see post on last page,
gold 16+ higher,,
18+now,of course this is due for a pull back, but when?
The Libyan shit will be bad for the crack spread I would assume.
good call, nobody say when u make a good call, just haters
Good point, bad for crack spreads but consumers will be using more gas if it is cheaper, especially at the end of the summer season.
You are a gimp with the brain size of a Fly. I print your articles only to pad the litter box with.
How many times will you be wrong before realizing that you are a mere plebian in an ivory tower?
A king of mooks you are..
see just haters like u will never b great, state ur posissions sir or b floged, P.S. fuck u, its easy to say whats wrong, hard to show ur hand when u r an asshole, honesty is a must here…
Banned like the ape that you are.
That’s right I’m the only one who gets to dance. Well, Senator Gint too.
Indeud
Solution to the economic malaise! Alien Invasion!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB8P90WZRIY&feature=share
I agree the rubber band as it wer is stretched and we are due for a little snap back but there are numerous headwinds that have me anticipating further pain for some time till we know we are out of the woods for a prolonged rally…
Germany isn’t going to go along with any plan that involves them coming to the rescue unless things get so bad they need to help others to help themselves – they would rather see the Greeks, etc, split from the eu or impose harsh austerity and cut budgets to the bone.
On the us side we need leadership as well, but can we expect it anytime soon… The repubs won’t likey go with any Obama job/defecit plans out of a you loose we win even if everyone suffers mentality… Companies are going to be clutching their wallets and only shelling out at a bare minimum… In ters of jobs they would rather automate, outsource, or push their salaried employees to new extreme ‘overtime’ levels before considering a hire.
At what point do the isolated flash mob riots go UK mainstream in the USA…
Hopefully I’m too pessimistic short term. I’m no bearshitter but it seems like the major trend is pain and I’ll be cautious till I know that the risk is baked in… When that hits I’ll be a fat man in an all I can eat buffet…
FYI… Recently discovered this site and am lovin it- this blog in particular is one of my favorite reads all day.
L8r
Riots go mainstream in the good ole USA when the republicans-teapartyiers start talking about cutting back on –you guessed it!!!—Foodstamps. These idiots think living in lily-white parts of the city or suburbs and gated communities, they are safe.
uh yeah but let’s go bankrupt providing food stamps to people who refuse to work… that’s really a better idea because we might avoid pissing them off and avoid causing them to riot. Wow.
Unfortunately food stamps and other “socialistic” benefits are not going to die out. We are riding a freight train that is now unstoppable. Let the riots begin. The strong survive…… just as in history…..
Food prices are skyrocketing all across the globe, and there’s no end in sight. The fast-eroding value of the dollar is causing food prices to appear even higher (in contrast to a weakening currency). As the dollar drops in value due to runaway money printing at the Fed, the cost to import foods from other nations looks to double in just the next two years.
Perhaps it is why investors around the world are flocking to farmland as the new growth industry. Doom and gloom is one outlook on the mess of the world. But try and keep ahead of the game. Look to the “reality” versus the “illusion.”
Just saying………….
How much food is imported from other countries?
let’s ride this fucking dow down to 5k. I’m young, dumb, decreasingly attractive & want some fucking dirt cheap stocks,fuck babyboomers 401ks…john paulson can take a dick, he won’t have a legacy…and fuck financial brokers, “lets just ride it out, you won’t know when to get back in!!!!!!” Thx for keeping it realz fly guy, on a fucking real time basis
Sorry for dropping F grenades all over you fly, you deserve nothing but class
I will be dancing with Hugh of course, he won’t be by himself. And Devil Dog should be at the party too. Tomorrow there is no econ data being released so bulls could attempt a rally, but I will sit and wait for the clam and China PMI data…which could be a lot of fun. For me, I am not a bull nor bear….just a student of bubbles.
Grrrrrr, Australia is playing QE tonight…100 million to help their Steel and Manufacturing industries…the strong Australian Dollar is really killing them.
Steven Roach is on CNBC, I really love that guy. Futures are up big on Bull hopes. Eur/USD running into resistance at 1.4430/50 on little/no econ news.
Hugh Hendry is GOD
“I’ve seen the future… and it has lower stock prices in it.” — The Fly
“All of you dollar homos needs to take a look, in earnest, at the dollar and quit calling for its demise. It is the standard.”
LOL…
That’s a funny one. Tell that to the soaring gold market. The dollar is slowly becoming a joke versus the standard. It will be insolvency not inflation that will take down the currency.
The US dollar is backed by nothing but trillions in debt. Treasuries are working because of the stock collapse.
It’s only a matter of time before rates rise. Treasuries are the short of a lifetime because our government is a miserable failure.
Nothing but more QE on the way which will keep pressuring the dollar and forcing gold to move to new highs.
Oh boy. Gold is going through a hyper gold stage. I will not short it. But in a year from now, shit throwers will be commenting on how obvious it was to short gold and how gay everyone was for buying it up here.
You people make me sick. You offer nothing.
As I have said, eventually The Gint will replace The Hugh as the hottest dance in town. But not quite yet.
Reading these comments makes me laugh. How did know one see this coming? The market went up right near last years Jackson Hole speech and the market pretty much tracked QE2 all the way to the end, june 2011. The market then started to get choppy and now shitty… after QE2stopped. The author said it right, we never got over 2008 and all the efforts went to help companies not people which repaired balance sheets and capital gains taxes. It was a statistical recovery end of story. Sure things got somewhat better, but not that much better. Anyhow, june was when I knew to start looking for shorts, didn’t do anything though. I waited and went short a couple weeks ago, did okay but I was nowhere near being short@ the top. Oh, I was long as well not as a hedge but because I like dividends. Point being if you weren’t looking for shorts when you knew QE was going to end WTF is wrong with you? For the love of Pete the market told you its direction was predicated on what the fed was doing. Probably going to get kicked off this site but I don’t care. One more thing, yes we are all doomed and the dollar will get killed at some point. Sorry, but when countries are insolvent it is a bigger problem than some fucking COO that went bad like 2008 or have you idiots not figured that out yet either? Rant over
You are not the typical shit thrower. You can stay, for now.
Show respect while in my house and I will not rip your mustache off.
fuck me gently
Good info Thanks.
Utah Legal Tender Act info:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/8/22_Ken_Ivory.html
interesting
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