My vacation is winding down. I had a great time with my wife and kids. Life is different here. No one gives a shit about stocks or bonds. However, little do they know how much their tourism revenues depends on a healthy western economy. On my seven day hiatus from the real world, I must have spent upwards of 12k on a wide array of accouterments. Naturally, Mrs. Fly had to shop for souvenirs, like a mad woman. And I had to eat at every high end eatery within 50 miles, like a fucking glutton, because that’s what I do.
Come Monday, I hop on a plane and fly back to civilization, where fucktards are literally trying to destroy the world on a real time basis. Will the stock market crash or not? Better yet, will Ben Bernanke save the motherfucking day, or not? Will gold keep going higher? And, moreover, is John Paulson’s asshat fund closing the fuck down, taking every stock he owns with it? All of these questions, and much much more, need to be answered, and soon.
This life of a stock operator is asinine, when I think about it. It’s speculation on speculation, with a twist of gambling. There are methods to game this market; but it’s never easy. Each and every time I make a bold move, I get the distinct feeling that “this time might be different.” When it all pans out, short term memory lapses kick in and I go back to square one.
I never hate on fellow managers who lose their mojo. I can see how people can easily lose their way, cutting through all the bullshit, all the stress and the lies and the backstabbers. Take a guy like Bill Miller, asshat money manager at Legg Mason. Sure, Bill sucks moose balls now and people love to give him shit about it, myself included. However, he was a fucking stud for decades. The same with John Paulson. All of you little bastards are ripping into John, for being retarded. However, the man accomplished greatness. He lost his way and will be recycled. That’s life.
Personally, I’d rather take a stab at accomplishing greatness, even if it’s only for a short time, than live out my days like an average Joe. Anyone remember Randy Stone? Of course not. But I bet you fuckers remember Macho Man Randy Savage.
You see these people on Twitter talking shit? Several of them are documented hedge fund failures. Now they want to train you how to run money? That’s fucking hilarious. Look, I’ve been managing vast sums of money for 14 years. There is a huge difference between telling someone on a blog, or via a newsletter, to buy XYZ because it’s “awesome and amazing” than putting millions of dollars into said ideas and having to deal with real life consequences. That’s my unique, double edged sword dilemma. When you little skittles talk shit about WNR or DECK or whatever stock I am buying, there is real money at stake, not just my reputation. When people fuck with my money, I eat them whole, like a pelican at a beach. I will attach c-4 to your brains and catapult you into active helicopter blades.
Hence, I liberally ban people at will.
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Indeud. Welcome back.
bringing back the orange?
no. Jeremy refuses to bring orange back.
i hope not green… so obvious and done already.
nope
Come on…burnt orange…full of vitamin C and matches all my University of Texas, aka…no recession here…gear.
My man The Fly, not all of us are reaching for rafters, small money by your gauge but it matters to us little folks. Ban at will.
what the plan for this week for everyone with jackson hole on friday ? net short early in the week or just cash and see what the fuck happen next week and take the week off.
also the short sell ban in europe is lifted by friday
That short sale bad did a lot of fucking good.
No worries longs, handouts in spades are on the way.
Nice post Fly. Somehow you manage to artistically exude a twisted sense of humility.
Before you go crazy one day, always remember true happiness is being content with your lot in life. I do get the sense through your sarcasm that you manage to keep things in perspective.
Best of luck this week
thanks
The more pertinent question from this post is whether Dr Fly is the next Soros/Buffet, or the next has been bum like Bill Miller and J.P.
Likely the latter. I have no desire to be an Uncle Warren or Evil Soros mastermind.
SOYLENT GREEN IS…John Paulson????
I’m own tell airbody.
Small time pikers have less and less reason to be involved in this market. It is abundandtly clear that this is a rich man’s game fit only for those with money to win or lose based on the best inside information or fastest market access via collocated machines running proprietary algorithms. Recent metrics echo those of 2008 and previous markets where movements far exceed statiscal probability. Your capital is going to be absorbed by the monied few who can afford to lose or gain great sums of money simply because they are so wealthy. It simply doesn’t matter to them, as they can properly diversify. The very wealthy are who the Fly invests for, like it or not, although I feel he is trying to look out for the little guy by way of this blog. Other than that, nobody gives a fuck about you and your five figure account; especially the SEC and its political sycophants.
Agree with first sentence. However, wealthy individuals who trade can and do go broke. The smarter wealthy folks do not trade, they save their money, and for instance will buy structured bonds and establish trusts for their children.
well put.. anyone who says this isn’t a tough racket is a damn liar… i wish they would post returns for every fuckwad that shows their face on fast money in a box underneath them while they speak. hell the “king of commodiies” dennis garman’s etf has lost money since inception… you would have never guessed that from his appearances.
seems like the only guys who make it in this racket get out after a great run.
>>Take a guy like Bill Miller, asshat money manager at Legg Mason… he was a fucking stud for decades. The same with John Paulson… the man accomplished greatness. He lost his way and will be recycled.<<
Bill Miller was just a simple surfer on top of the wave of a debt-fueled bull-market. Paulson, on the other hand, made a truly brilliant contrarian call, and unlike those of us who felt the same way, he (or his guy Paolo) figured out a great way to play it. Was there some luck involved in terms of the timing? Sure, but he also nailed it fundamentally. Did it give him a feeling of invincibility that then went on to later crush him as he cavalierly invested huge sums in a Chinese scam and the same American banks for which he previously had so much disdain? Also maybe. However, I heard somewhere that all of his personal money is in his gold fund, which means that right now he's probably worth somewhere around $15 billion (as Forbes had him at $12 billion last September), and if I were him, I'd shut it all down and just have fun managing my own $$$.
Look at the face of Art Cashin, a lifetime of worry. For what?
BAC is going to fucking zero.
Hahahah. That was good, mixing Cashin in with BAC for no good reason.
BAC ain’t fuckin’ “going to zero” you ridiculous buffoon !!!
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Where in GOD’S name do you children come from ?
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This place has turned into a Yahoo Message Board !!!
SIGH !!!
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BAC does look like it is going to zero, from the chart. But the Fed and government that forced it to swallow Country Fried and Merrill have likely promised in return that they will find a way to keep it afloat somehow. Anyway, it is too big to fail and also too big to bail, so it has to be kept afloat, and it will be.
The shares could still go to -0- under that scenario. The equity holders can be destroyed while the Gov’t puts BoA through a structured banko exercise, ala GM.
Foe what reason would BAC go to zero. The lawsuits? Don’t be ridiculous. The lawsuit with AIG will probably take 15 to 20 years to resolve.
Recall the Exxon Valdez disaster. You know how long it took to extract the money off Exxon? The spill happened in 1988 0r 09 and they finally settled in 2005.
For…
alf,they will,and i mean they will make it another C. the beast thats inside bac must be slain. and it will trade like fnm, fre, and c. they just cant figure on how bac isnt going to turn out like fnm, fre, which are psuedo nationalized. and they are’nt going to nationalize an american bank with joe six pack deposits and checking accounts. the housing market albatross around america’s neck is bac. dont you see it. try sitting at that round table and come up with a solution.
BAC will make it back to 20…one decade…
too bad you couldn’t write all up as a business expense…exploration of new clients…off-shore gaming..etc
Nice commentary, but please, don’t put Miller and Paulson on some sort of pedestal. The law of averages makes it obvious that several, out of the many thousands of money managers, are going to have stellar results for a long time…until they flip tails a couple of times.
You sound like a true diseased gambler believing that you’ll even come close to what they achieved.
Paulson is a true Boss Man and one smart motherfucker to boot. He’ll be back. Or we find out he was hedged via a massive SPU short
Paulson is down 35-40% in his main fund year-to-date. Pretty sure he is not massively short the SPU.
“Personally, I’d rather take a stab at accomplishing greatness, even if it’s only for a short time, than live out my days like an average Joe”
In the immortal words of Jim Cramer: “You only need to get rich once”.
So true. I have two fucktarded friends who traded their way from scraps up to over $3 million each. One did it on the way up during the housing bubble and the other one made it on the way down shorting stocks in 2008.
Both of them stayed at the party too long and gave 2 million back.
People are fucking stupid and greedy. I’ve got a number I am shooting for and once I get there I will walk and go into fixed income(given there is a dollar and a financial system left).
These idiots were set but thought their runs could continue.
Define, “scraps”? 100k? 25k? …..less? Just curious.
Both were in the 250-300k range and were highly leveraged…Hope that helps.
Help who? Talking about turning x into y and wishing it was you doesn’t help. Come up with a trading system and trade futures/options/currency. Stick to the system and tinker slightly. Start reading more books about chart patterns and woodshedders blog. That is your path to riches. Not getting lucky on a stock.
What really amazes me is how so many know so little, but are paid so much money to buy AAPL, etc…..anyway, my nice little bubble has been popping…its not done yet, but I do have to endure the Clam without his spine this week. Me and my little US Dollar also have to deal with “high hopes’ of a stronger China in Sept too leading into its Oct holiday..which when they come back and fail to restock and 4th qtr earnings suck big time I will get my nice little black October…So, there is about 16 more days of this “hope”, so,.I will just have to sit and wiat for my bubble,cuz these bubbles REALLY take such a longtime to explode in such mean and nasty ways. Fly glad you had a great vacation…where there a lot of “Golden Spoon Fund Managers” there?
One more time TN, declare VICTORY and walk (no RUN) away from the Armageddon trade. If we will no longer be the dominant power it will take a very long time, and it won’t be a winning long term trade betting on it. For an historical reference, look at the Dutch.
I don’t think calling for the death of the market since March ’09 deserves a claim of victory at this point. I’ll give props when the S&P hits 400.
TN – why are managers that bought AAPL for their investors such morons? Would you have preferred they bought RIMM?
Bullish, I didn’t call a death of the market in March of 09, On Rev Sharks Real Money Blog I started calling a Copper Bubble in April/May of 09. At that point I didn’t even know about the Shanghai Copper Futures or even the currency markets….but I saw a huge developement of a imbalance of supply and demand growing. At that point I had two choices, one play the bubble because bubbles last so much longer then you think…or sell my Netflix, HIG, RTP, C that I had bought in March of 09 and buy SMN and sit and learn what really makes bubbles pop…I picked the second one. In Sept 09 I added my DRR when I started to learn about the currency market and then FXP..and since then I added FAZ, VXX when I started hanging out here last year………….for the SPX not 400, I think I did Gann Analysis and came up with a 575ish? level…………………………………………………………..Yogi, It actually is a China Armageddon trade, or at least their Copper, Ore, Property, etc Speculator Armageddon. In 2008 I noticed a boom/bust pattern and when it bust it takes stock equities with it. I have to learn to ride a bubble bursting down too..which is maybe even harder to play then it going up………….Bullish, For AAPL, many fund managers don’t even know that it topped out right at the 401ish resistance level, that it SHOULD have never been at except for the Clams help..it will soon be back to that 287ish level and they will be saying, we don’t know why??
Actually it is 278ish…had to check my notes http://ibankcoin.com/king_of_the_pg/2010/06/22/apple-for-my-teacher/ AAPL now has a bigger market cap then Exxon, still is stupid for a company making trendy little things.
There are only two types of people in the world that I can’t stand. People who are intolerant of other peoples’ cultures …. and the Dutch.
LOL, Ozark you’ve got something against Ome Henk? 😉
No, I think its a Van Gogh thing..Ozark really hates post-Impressionist
Lol wife & kids, Le Fly don’t you mean your mom and sister, so cute when boys play grown up fantasy
A new all time low for pathetic insult: banned
i wouldnt worry that much,random shots are always fired upon the best. almost like when the world blames mcd for obesity. wasted bullets fly,just wasted bullets.glad you guys had fun on vacay
So funny, you really think these hedge funds are not short the market. Whenever you think you messing with them, they already fucked you. As I said before to the small guy with the 5 digit account, keep your head up, your time will come. Don’t worry about the money worry about the process..
Q: Anyone know what do these dates have in common?
Sept 23, 2008 – Oct 15, 2008
Apr 17, 2010 – May 11, 2010
Aug 2, 2011 – Aug 26, 2011
A: Mercury was in retrograde during those periods
Look what happened to the stock market during those times………….. CraSh!
Pretty interesting shit! Maybe some of you should start looking to the stars to know when to stay the fuck out of the market or go short, huh?
I warned people on July 29th that it was a major Bradley turning point…no one wanted to believe.
That was the day to go short.
good call, u cant fix stupid
wasnt planets, it was the numbers, the news. anyone with a craolla .could see that…lol
Amazing how regularly a week in the islands under real sunshine, real beach sand decadent wing and dining, happy family faces and scantily clad(if at all) scenery can turn a grown man’s brain into offal and actually appear to sensitize his outlook on life and living. As a wise man said, “this too shall pass”. South Beach beckons.
Bank of America has a new loan program for non first time homebuyers. You get up to 4 percent downpayment
assistance to buy a home. I’m just not seeing another 2008. Going long.
bait’em, and switch’em. ha,so what they’re saying is when you sell your present home,before you roll over what you have left of the sale,and go to the next crib,come to us for your next purchase/mortgage will give you blah blah blah. desperate times call for desperate measures. having grown up in retail and being the “merchant class” i’d like to lend some much needed help to a douche like eddie lampert and can turn sears around single handedly…………………………………NOT…………………. you surround yourself with people you pay millions a year for with not one result. and now you whine like a baby cause illinois wont give you billions in tax breaks like how they “GAVE” your campus on which you stand on now, for nothing………..fucking die……couldnt sell a monkey wrench to a monkey
Monkeys don’t use monkey wrenches
so…I’m looking through the tool box and I can’t find a “Monkey” wrench…I guess that makes me the monkey?
No Offence to “Monkeywithaboxfullofwhipasslookingforamatetoplaywith”
I was following Jim Cramer and Eddie Lambert and buying Citi at $50.00 a share I think it was in 2008. My Mistake..
craftsman tools,and us monkeys that use em
I agree with Fly…cut Paulson some slack. Its not easy to lose 40% on your multi-billion dollar fund in a little over 8 months.
I redeemed from Paulson last year because he got too big in my opinion. I prefer a manager with an asset base that is still “small” enough to allow him to be nimble… and who is still hungry. I don’t know how much The Fly is managing but I know that he is still hungry. Managers like Paulson and Miller can become too big. Eventually their ability to generate alpha starts to erode.
Is that Pat Paulson?
If trading the stock market were easy, everyone would be rich.
The futures could be worse.
At least there is a discount.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/site/14081545/
Talk about your random shots…not looking so good for Gaddafi’s reign in Libya.
Hi Fly. I just got home from a 10 day vacation a couple of hours ago. I held my core
No, it’s spelled COCK, not CORE
Hi Fly. I just got home from a 10 day vacation a couple of hours ago. I held my substantial core SHORT positions and did zero trading. WOW…that weeks or months long SHORT SQUEEZE you said was happening before I left sure is killing me…NOT! HAHAHA!!!
Hi Devil the Dog. Tomorrow may not be as bad as you think. Futures are bouncing off their lows and will probably go positive over night. I am glad to have closed my nice short position after making a cool 20% in a day on TZA. Now I wait for another good entry on the short side.
Short sell the rips, cover the dips!
Hi Damnit. I’ll cover when the S&P dips to my target @ 150.
Fine with me if they close the gap tonight at 1124. Please do. Market is going DOWN BIG this week. FUCK benny and his band of traitors.
accouterments? How gauche!!! Very Dukes of Hazard
Is that you in the video Fly? Skinny, tall, and big hands; If it is you in that video I can believe you could have throw 90 at one point in time. With movement on it is another discussion.
Fly is too busy surfing the waves in Tropical Storm Irene.
7:12 tee time at http://www.vanpattengolf.com/ tommorow.
Hoping to break 100 this season…
Have a good time.
Greens fees look reasonable and the fairway on the virtual tour looks tight so bring your “A” game.
How about a “Fuck You, Shorts, You’re Dead Rally,” brought to you by His Royal Highness, Moomar Gaddafi’s, corpse?
That rally will be shorter lived than the 3 hour “dead osama” rally. Get a clue. Try buying a vowel.
The death and or capture of Quaddafi, or Gaddafi, er oh shit that dude in Libia with the funny hats may be bearish. Oil should fall which will put pressure on all the oil stocks.
ha, ha, ha, short, long, ive joined the dark side,,, im in the path of the storm, we will be having a hurricane party, we fear no evil…..except i gots batten down the hatches.
not 1 u guys asked me how i came to 10600 before the down turn,did i come close,he who laughs last…
back to netflix, dick van dyke
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