A Hostile Open

Want to know something odd-ballish? Since publicly traded, TLT has never been down in August, booking higher for 9 years running, going on 10. Do not fear, small pleb, for The PPT will inform you of such marvels, going forward, via our new seasonality engine.

All of my stocks, with exception to the cock lovers at ANF, are charging higher today, thanks in small part to the all cash hostile takeover offer for POT. Fuck those shit producers: BHP will swallow them whole.

Off of that news, I think stocks will gain a little momo here, as investors scratch their balls and say ” hmmm, maybe BHP knows something we don’t.”

Either way, The PPT wins again.

Some of you nailed this trade, others didn’t. It’s like a war, where some will perish and others will emerge with shiny medals and shit. So you know, “The Fly” is the 5 star general of this blogging/investing game.

In closing, losses in VXX are expected into melt up mode. I will take the profits from longs and use them to average into VXX, when I deem fit. However, for now, enjoy the run.

UPDATE: I bought 10,000 AXL @ $9.52

Get the kids and enjoy the show!

Serious Word About 12631: We just launched the Seasonality Engine for PPT subs, making this the 100th update to the system (for free) since inception (note: I might be exaggerating the number of updates, but not by much). If you are interested to know what stocks outperform/underperform, during certain months, you will love this new feature. With regards to 12631: it will serve as an addendum to The PPT. It will be a paid service, mainly due to the amount of work that is taking place putting it together. It will be, without question, the biggest update to The PPT architecture, since creation. As launch date nears, further details will be disseminated.

I am not scared of this market. I fucking own it.

I am positioned accordingly:

long TNA, EDC, ANF, ATHR, GMCR, BUCY, GLW, VXX, just to name a few. My full list of positions can be found within the confines of The PPT.

Let it be known, I am convinced the move in bonds is NOT a reaction to some sort of Hindenburg crash. Instead, I believe rates are being manipulated lower, by the cognoscenti, in order to buoy the housing markets. If they really want to give a boost to the housing market, they should lower standards to nothing at all. Loans for everyone; get your fucking share of American home pie.

Into the coming rally, I intend to release my longs and set up for September apathy.

I made my bed, now I will lay in it. I will not sit here and second guess myself, for that is reserved for “cock-goblins” and I am certainly not one of them. The economy is for shit and the market is unpredictable. Nevertheless, it’s important to attempt to bring normalcy into money management, whenever possible. By that, I mean avoid putting yourself in the fucking blender with mixed trades and conviction-less swagger.

Twenty five percent of my assets are in VXX, serving as an insurance policy against my longs. I will not walk away from my “bounce theory.” Therefore, I will now walk away from my office and venture off into the concrete jungle, where I will tell people to “go fuck themselves” and slap homeless men with empty garbage cans.

In an effort to increase productivity, companies are looking to cut back on transportation costs, by super-sizing ships, trains and trucks. At the present, there is a Federal pilot program in place that allows trucks to carry 100,000 pounds, up from the legal limit of 80,000. The pilot program lapses in December. So, the fuckheads in DC are certain to jam a bill through, in order to “save” the trucking industry, yet again. Who gives a shit about roads and bridges? WMT needs to beat the street!

At any rate, one of the little caveats is the trucks must be outfitted with 6 axles, in order to support the additional weight. Trucking company plays have been on fire this year, led by gains in CMI. However, if this bill passes, the gains should accelerate, barring some sort of fucked up economic apocalypse. Margins will go up for retailers and trucking parts makers will enjoy a boom.

Some axle plays on my list includes: AXL, ARM and DAN.

As for this market:

THE PROPHECIES OF THE FLY, MASTER INDICATOR says we bounce from here. Get your boing on and prepare to melt some faces off.

UPDATE: I swapped out of CRUS for CRS, only a difference of one letter.

I bought 30,000 CBL in the $12.40’s and 10,000 EDC @ $27.20

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, iBankCoin will post yet another 12631 “movie.” And, you may lose money.

Let’s be clear: the market should be down over 2% right now; but it isn’t.  We are seeing rates simply disappear and bonds rallying like a motherfucker, yet zero market reaction. The yen is absolutely parabolic to the upside, while the dollar suffers, making today an extraordinary day. Perhaps the yen carry trade is over, swapped out for dollars? I am not sure about that. However, one thing I am positively certain of is this: we are not supposed to rally while bonds are screaming to the upside.

Imagine you are dancing at some party. The music is going fast paced and loud. Girls out number men 3:1 and you are having the time of your life, until 10 fucking dorks step into the small club, dressed with pocket protectors and velcro pants. They take over the DJ booth and put this shit on:

Then they starting “nerding” up the joint, officially fucking up your party, with their robot- like Hugh Hendry dances. The girls leave and you are left holding your dick in your hand.

That’s what TLT represents, right now. It is a fucking cock-goblin and needs to be stopped, else we will all be inserted into the funnel and effectively smashed to pieces by the nerdy hordes.

Howsoever, “The Fly” does not participate in your little quibbles, as he has an aerial view from above. Nevertheless, for the sake of my longs, TLT needs to sell off.

Bottom line: tech has been obliterated in recent weeks and offers a decent set-up, right here, right now. If we get a reversal to the downside in the bond market, we will have a rally, AND MORE.

Lots of news of “imminent crash” going around the net these days, due to some bullshit indicator that was concocted in 1995. That’s right gentlemen, this is not some ancient indicator, dating back to the 1937 airship disaster. The asshole who developed it, Meikka, did so in 1995.

This is all you need to know, before shooting yourself in the face with a howitzer:

The Omen was behind every market crash since 1987, but also has occurred many other times without an ensuing significant downturn. Market analysts said only about 25% of Omen appearances have led to stock-market declines that can be considered crashes.

Umm, okay. How many crashes did it predict then? I suppose it predicted 1997,1998,2000 and 2008? Big fucking deal; I predicted those declines too.

Hence, starting today, I am unveiling THE PROPHECIES OF THE FLY, MASTER INDICATOR.

As you all know, I too am predicting a rather sharp decline in September. So, when it happens, give credit where credit is due, not to some bat-shit dude from Florida, who names shit after horrific tragedies.

I dare you to even try to understand what is going on here.

Gold is no longer a reliable tell for inflation expectations. Recent dollar weakness can only be attributed to a record short squeeze event in the euro. What’s important to monitor is treasuries. Look at the TLT and tell me why it was diverging from the dollar.

Answer: anomaly.

The relationship between treasury strength and dollar strength cannot be denied. Their fates are intertwined. Just to throw it out there, sovereign CDS spreads for Venezuela, Argentina, Portugal and Ireland have been blowing the fuck out. Keep that in mind, when aimlessly allocating money for yourself or clients. The truth of the matter is: this is a period in time when you will accomplish more by doing less. Go on vacation and toss the ball around with your bratty kids. Instead of rolling into this market in a tank, pick up a knife and quietly kill people when no one is paying attention.

This is great advice.

All in all, today would have been an uneventful day for me, if it wasn’t for the parabolic move in FTK. By the way, that fucker is not done going higher. Nevertheless, I remain steadfast in my belief that we will enjoy a relief rally soon, as dictated by the articles of law, inside of the handbook of sublime harmony of mathematical precision (S.H.O.M.P). Because of these beliefs, “The Fly” has allocated his dearest resources (cash) towards achieving market excellence, via bulltarded long positions. However, I remain hedged with 25% of my book saddled in a rather delightful and wondrous VXX position, with an additional 25% in cash.

In short, tread, but do so very carefully.