Much to my surprise, the bulls kept it together today, despite all of the ingredients present for a most horrendous decline. Everything resets tomorrow, except for the inevitable pullback in Asia tonight, led by the Samurais in Japan, thanks to strong Yen. CAT and XOM kept the ball rolling today, effectively knee-capping all beartarded attempts to bring the big index lower. Nevertheless, it looks like I will close with marginal gains in both VXX and EDZ, for the day.
One this is clear to me: you cannot have the Yen and Treasuries up here and expect the market to rally. Life doesn’t work like that.
While it’s true, the CDS market has improved a great deal over the last two weeks. It’s also true that the CDS market is now littered with fucking morons who think they are going to hit “Bear Sterns lotto” or some shit. I do not think the market will crash, nor will we see grandiose failures. I’m just looking for a pullback.
Bottom line: If we are setting up for a 10% move in the market, what do you think is more likely, 9,000 or 12,000 Dow?
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12,000 … but FIG still applies!
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/07/28/attention-bulls-2/#comment-170391
but this comment doesn’t, today anyway ….
Really? 12k, amidst 17% unemployment. How quaint.
YOU HAVE LEARNED NOTHING.
the market is not rational … you know that. It’s an election year and QE2 sets sail soon enough!
She’s already mid-Atlantic, dodging icebergs as she goes.
Steady as she goes, matey.
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Welcome to an empty fortress, a mighty wreck that once was proud. Ate alive by oxidation, abandoned by a crew of cowards. Navigation systems failed, computers crashed and they all fall down. Possibly, I’ve seen too much. Hangar 18, I know too much.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJAcgqZIcwk
we are going lower fo sho
Everyone should get irrationally exuberant immediately.
I’ll help pick up the pieces if there’s a pullback and join the pack later.
The action has been better than in the last 3 months by a long shot.
Today was another low volume pullback that was very bullish..
Breakouts are working again – be long or wrong as Scott likes to say.
Are we going to go back to the bullshit tomorrow or the next day? Maybe
Forgot to mention that GS has a triangle breakout that should resolve tomorrow, probably up
Fuck your triangle.
When it comes to single strike percusssion instruments… I like “cowbell,” m’self.
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But what about electric triangle?
Agreed…we need more COWBELL
What? Cowsills?
I’ve got a fever and the only remedy right now is more cowbell.
ROFL
classique.
The Gong applies today, no?
BTW, since you tweaked the PPT, is it not possible that 3.2 is the new 3.0?
What % of stocks are overbought now … +/- 75% ?
Ah yeeeeeesssssss!
The gong show
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8k1U3e3ASk&feature=related
I need to stop surfing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVOb6UwTXPY
Chuck Barris the CIA agent:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confessions_of_a_Dangerous_Mind
The best Gong Show regular evah, Gene Gene the Dancing Machine:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACpNVD5GMUw
triangles? go back to kindergarden wit dat sh-t.
i have a funny feeling you longs are correct, however with my coin I am shorting.
NFLX was a good one today. my boy RC..
Indeed, NFLX is a good short
I called the rally back to 10.5K as invisible hand. Obama on the View tomorrow – should be higher open lulling bulls into a false sense of security for Friday with options expiration and re-roll (rick roll’d).
Bankers are happy now with their financial bill, but don’t want Elizabeth Warren and might show that they don’t want her considered by tanking the market yet again (like with the financial reform bill… market maker + insane leverage = price manipulation). If we think about the structure of the market, the big players are making money both ways on the highs and lows by taking a cut, %, or transaction fee, so they need some volatility or movement to make money (if we all agreed on the price, there would be no buying or selling).
Greenspan and company believe the market leads the economy so they therefore have an interest in propping. With elections coming up, the President would be willing to take on additional debt (this benefits the private for profit fed) to provide the illusion of prosperity in the markets via the PPT – in the hopes of promoting job growth and capital spending (businesses have $2 trillion sitting in cash not doing anything). If they could just reduce the uncertainty level with new regulations and selective enforcement of the ones we have, health care, taxes, etc. business could do its thing if they got out of the way. A few perp walks would help as well, of real criminals not Martha Stewart distractions.
options expiration? that’s the third friday of the week not the last
Referring to SPY options expiring Friday. You are quite right regarding the broader options expiration. Market makers who write options also use algorithms that move the underlying and pick up FRN’s like Pac-Man. Derivatives used to be a play on the underlying, but with extreme leverage, futures, and round tripping they can move the underlying and impact the options (dependent and independent variables changed). With 100% profitable trading days, I would rather bet with the house.
DOW!
NINE!
K!
Dammit people!
Dudette,
Be a man like the TURD and don’t post again until Dow 9k.
Prez, it won’t happen unless Fly puts “DOW 9000” as the header for a post. You KNOW this.
What I really miss is that gravestone Fly
tastefully posted after impressive rallies.
The one that said, “Fuck You Bears, You’re Dead.”
That’s the old cantankerous Fly I miss.
lol, I was so surprised at the big move down at 3pm today…. us bears really don’t have the firepower yet, it will come…ah the wonders of this game…you just have to love it.
I will await the “chartists” and then give my opine.
12,000. Interest rates are very low, which means we go up.
turning japanese i think we’re turning japenses I really think so…
lower rates does not make markets go higher.
When was the yen the world’s reserve currency again?
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Regardless of what our situation, the fact is that it’s a myth that lower rates is bullish for the markets. Study the changing of rates since the removal of the gold standard, and there is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that lower rates is bullish.
Are you adjusting for inflation, then?
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The economic numbers suck, real unemployment is 20% plus, jerks rule both sides of the Congressional aisle and so logic would dictate 9,000. But what does logic have to do with this market?
True. As a market predictor, logic would rank highly on average, but only as a contrarian indicator. To the stock market, the real economy doesn’t matter for months or years at a time, until suddenly it does. Only when “suddenly” happens is logic finally correct in its predictions.
Trading nymph,
when I see your picture it makes me wanna kick somebody in the stomach. Then I read what you wrote, even if you right something brilliant, it steal makes me wanna chock someone out.
please change it.
regards
chuck
Indued…spelling errors aside.
For you Chuck I will change it…Bubbles is getting a bit old….do you want Buttercup or Blossom..lol…I will change her later.
Bjork again, or you, whatever.
_______
How about Ginger Lynn circa 1985? If not how about Ice -T’s wife Coco?
Ugh… the one with the overdone factory air?
Ugh.
________
Jake…I would love to put my pic up again, but too many crazies out there…but you totally are cute for asking.
Hi Susanne:
Don’t change anything for Chuck Bennett,
his posts – when he had space here –
lacked incredible insight,
unless you wanted to read about his “conquests,”
and we are not talking great stock picks,
because those were few and far between.
It must suck being you…
Nope.
You sucked too.
flyaway…I really haven’t notice Bennett before…but I actually was getting bored w/bubbles. She was a good symbol when I first came on to this blog…but I will let Jake have the real bjork for awhile…BUT thank you for carrying and standing up for me….but Jake, I still think I am better looking then bjork, lol.
Real important stuff being discussed here. NOT. Who cares bout her pix. Just a need for attention. No insights there
Agreed!
DOW 9k and shit.
That’s what awwwl of Wood’s emus used to say!
Right before he shot ’em.
_____
“DOW 9000” headline.
Do it Fly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra70O9nps6E
You know what’s coming…. my furry friend?
I am not here to tell you the dangers of 3x…. I am here to tell you… you will experience it this week.
Well we broke the 50 like I expected, I do think we break the 200, I think we go as high as 113-114 on the SPY, but no higher, Then we can work towards testing our lows near 100 on SPY. – I love NFLX calls here if it can get down to 97-98, I think they are golden. Even buying here would give you gains, imo. but would be a steal if I could get in at my mentioned price.
dow 9000…tax cuts are the reason, hard to explain why tax cuts are needed when all is well…not sure if the cubes see it that way
I’m leaning bit both ways. duh.
It makes no difference. Whichever way the market goes, I will make money. Half the dudettes on this here blog havent embraced the beauty of that reality for themselves yet.
17% unemployment is bullish. The bottom 10% is not worth hiring.
LOL! aint that the truth!
Anytime you hear any “data” points, it’s most likely already too late to trade.
Besides, i think the bottom 20% will do more harm than good when not distracted by jobs….
22% unemployment means that the bottom 20% is going to get into illegal businesses and black markets, thus taking money away from the “real economy”…. . People without jobs can’t buy real estate, or spend money, which means sales will drop. But this is old news.
Why can’t we hit both? Everyone thinking 9000, which means we probably go to 12,000 before going back to 9000 – I don’t trust the election year pump and dump.
Whaaaaaaaaaaaaa?
Like in 2008???
I am doing a costanza on Fly. In the five months I am up 3%. Only play the TSX though. No hard feelings.
Confidence is everything…..Capital is happy just sittin. 4% may look juicy in a couple of months.
… all this pent up money on balance sheets and in money markets is waiting to buy assets much lower.
Fuck…banks have shitloads of REO…extendin pritindin until they can’t. Sure Krugman is insane….just like Bernanke and Geithner [sic]….go try and put a retail strip center together for a loan…LOL. Tons of Slack.
Is it different this time?
Calvino?
Retail strip centers are easy to put together, if you have lessees in hand.
Position yourselves with metals and steels, machinery, manufacturing and transportation stocks by this Friday.
Anything that rusts—buy it.
The Bear story is getting old and certainly well worn by now.
The risk trade will be back on, as markets in China and Asia appear to be bottoming here. Nothing like the mother of all short covering rallys to shake out the complacent, overly assumptive bears.
nobody is going to be able to buy anything as soon as all the banks get downgraded due to “not being to big to fail “
I’m in alphadawg’s camp.
One more and we’ll have a quorum …
Has Doubting Thomas come around at last?
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Looks like it …
CBO: We’re “officially” fucked;
http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=11659
SEC regarding requests for information: “Lick our nuts”
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/07/28/sec-no-longer-obliged-to-respond-to-press-says-fox/
It will be interesting to see Senor Vs the Force, Alpha, Jake and ScottyB. Will it be a long ardous sell off or a rally into the moon?
your acct
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRdaI3AXljw&feature=related
Looks like a bottom. No?
This is a rhetorical question:)
tendering my rhetorical affirmation ;NO
I can assure everyone here we are heading for a consumer led double dip. I can see it directly in my business. I see it just as sure as it manifested suddenly in June of 2007. Like an on/off switch.
I don’t know why, but I know its true. and it will show up in the market BEFORE the next round of earnings. Maybe due to worsening confidence, bad retail numbers, or even more job cuts.
Just because everyone is bearish doesn’t mean its not right.
what type of biz mr bear? or industry?
Consumer discretionary
Massage parlours?
____
The consumer is about to be replenished via extended unemployment benefits, no?
12k… See you soon!
Will it be a choppy meat grinder on the way? Yes.
I wonder what Cramer thinks of all this, certainly not Dow9000! No doubt Le Fly has some insider info from Cramer but he is keeping us guessing.
The Fly knows Cramer’s chemo schedule.
_________
iPhone iBankCoin wish list for X-Mas:
1) Spell Checker
2) the ability to click on YouTube links from iPhone
3) Some way to comment on previous threads
Maybe you can make it a premium app for a couple bucks???
I apologize if I shouldn’t be asking for these things. I’m just making my X-Mas in July wishes to Santa Fly.
You need to make a WAP version of this site….iPhone is cool and all, but WAP will get you better bang for your buck and ramp up your uniques.
I guess I will stick with the PPT knowing that we are overbought and will eventually pull back.
I work on horses with big teeth.
Not really.. the horse is in more pain than me.
The consumer is an ass
i feel dumber
still long pussy and thinking about buying a HANDBELL on ebay…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handbell
long and strong CAT still
Whattabout an ocarina?
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Anyone going long on XEC? Thoughts?
Am new here and loving this site btw.
Just wondering! When talking heads on CNBC says tons of cash on the sidelines waiting to be applied why is it that they always think it will be applied long and not short.
Most investors and traders never trade short.. So if the cash on the sidelines goes into the market, it will go long. However, after 2008, a lot of folks are still putting money into their IRAs, but they are not willing to risk any of their other savings, if they have any, in the market. Because the last time they did that it disappeared. A lot of the cash on the sidelines has been there for a long time, and will remain there for a long time to come, as savings to pay bills with now, or on a “rainy day” if one should come in the future. Or to buy a boat or some tangible item that, unlike a high-priced stock, will not disappear and become valueless and useless.
All in a days work. Thanks Nyph. I like this one better.
My jedi skills are most powerful, spell check skills? no need when one uses the force.
That person talking sh-t, I can buy and sell you 4 times over. Funny thing is, I wouldnt need to because I have mastered the way a J knight many years ago. At the age of 3.
You would surrender yourself to me with in 10 minutes. (I hope your a girl, you sound like one) AT the point I would refuse your slutyness and gladly have you buy drinks for me and my friends.
good night to you
regards
chuck
LOFL.
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haha