I spit in the face of fear. With that in mind, as planned, I sold out of the remainder of my VXX, north of $32. With some of the proceeds, I bought 10,000 FLS in the $84.40’s. And, I added to my TNA position in the $34.60’s.
All of the data is negative. However, if there is one thing I have learned, through the years I’ve wasted accumulating wealth in the stock market, nothing goes according to schedule. Meaning: even the shittiest data can sometimes put in a temporary bottom. I’m not very confident about this thesis, however. Which is why, at the moment, my cash position is north of 65%.
In my opinion, the easy money has been made, playing the downside. Now it’s time to make some hard money on a bounce.
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right on..
James Altucher is God
Indude
What are you thinking for unemployment rate data tomorrow? 9.8%?
GODSPEED … Senor Fly !!!
.
How come no one new BJs were on sale before today?
I say we keep the BJ’s
No… no… someone please tell me this is a dream… ?
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/06/24/forced-trades/#comment-165172
A little early on the draw there Fly?
speaking of BJ’s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqA_pMkVqms&feature=fvst
Fly = Large Balls of Titanium
currently my DRV and FAZ = lovely.
“I spit in the face of fear.”
—
Apparently, you have now pissed off “fear” … and it will now exact it’s revenge !
.
anyone else just get “Error establishing a database connection” when refreshing PPT?
Same problem here.
If DB fails, means everyone’s rapidly hitting refresh trying to get any insight on the market. That’s a fear gauge if i’ve ever seen one.
I mean if PPT is getting information overload with everyone following it, maybe it’s time to quit with the buy the dip mentality. Market goes in stages where buy dip sell rips is right, and other stages where you buy breakouts and sell breakdowns. Possible shift?
I can’t even get on. People need to chill the fuck out.
Yes, having same problem Nate
same problem!
The problem with 900+ hybrid-update addicts trying to get their fix at the same time.
Just checkin’ in… OUCH! My TNA got smacked by a 2×4.
I guess the early ones really do get the arrows in the back or rather TNA.
Purchased MGM at $9.35 a share. Time to man up and take the bullet.
Added 50% to my shares of Verizon at $27.67 apiece.
Bought APC at $36.74.
You fucking rule man. Nice job!
Holy shit, look at FAZ. I feel silly now, being all excited about a whopping 7.5%.
Not selling FAZ this morning was the best trade of the day for me so far. Might dump some now though.
(can’t get in either- no problem going old school here on ibc for now-kind of nice in a way) Watching these currency moves and the move out of dollar and into francs, yen, bunds– I’m thinking at least some of the bots haven’t been rewired yet–which has me just holding current hedges and longs in place a bit longer.
Ppt is down, so for once the rabble gets a taste of the form of winship. Closed vxx 32.44. Majority cash now
A pension funding partnership will be formed with the maturing whisky – which has a book value of £500m – used as collateral to produce annual income of around £25m over 15-years. At the end of that period, the pension trustees will be able to sell the spirit back to Diageo for up to £430m.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/01/276596/whisky-galore/
Now Long TNA
me too, starter in low 33’s. thanks for the heads up call on momentum right before the PPT went down, I was all set to follow people in the 34 area but held back.
Anything for a fellow Distinguished Gentleman
THE FLY IS GOD, DAMMIT
Order in for more VXX short @ 33.
@Gap I’m short VXX 1/2 position
Bought AAPL 246 and IWM 59.50 rally to the weekend baby
We may need a PPT server upgrade due to volume.
What is the PPT score?
around 2
Jeremy let me know if you need anything.
Closed VXX Aug 20 calls for a ridiculous profit. Thank you Mr. Market (and Fly+Co)
There seems to be a convergence of things going on today…
PPT blows a gasket
SlopeOfDope guy pressing the downside at the lows
Sentiment = dog barf
hmmmm…..
PPT unsolicited suggestion: Load balancing and hosting via Rackspace Cloud. We use them for clients, and the scaling / flexibility is amazing (and affordable to boot).
IX
Is the PPT fucked up or is it just me.
Ok something is changing now. I just went green on the day.
we bouncin’ ?
Can’t say 100% yet but it feels a little like exhaustion selling.
Jeremy is working to get the issues taken care of. PPT will be fixed soon.
Out NSM for even.
Out SMH for small gain (.10).
Not worth it.
Into the pool.
Tell Jeremy to check to see if it is plugged in. Usually my problem.
Starter position in TBT
SHLD is a green bean now.
Bullish “Reverse Head and Shoulders” in $EEM . “Megaphone bottoms” still intact on Dow, Nas, SPX, and now–the Nikkei. http://tiny.cc/k0w0a
We either bounce to Dow 10600, or go straight to zero.
I vote for 10600 – thanks for the update
I have a feeling Bernanke is readying the quantitative-easing bazooka.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d55RUgUbW3g
disregard comment.
BP up 10% in 3 days? SELL BABY SELL
PPT withdrawal pains are starting now. Fly must be too easy on the internet minions.
Hard to say which prediction was more entertaining.
Peter Schiff’s call for a TLT collapse 2 weeks ago, or Dennis Gartman’ s call for a parabolic Gold rally.
let the TLT bubble begin and the GLD collapse ensue!
Mass confusion, but buy the dips, sell the rips still the mantra—until some little old guy from a Chinese monastery “tiger claws” you in the balls.
Hooowaaahh!!
exactly!
You mean a Shoulin monk from a Tibetan monastery plans to attack you for no apparent reason, and violate his precepts?
RIP David Carradine.
Really really excellent Alan Greenspan interview on CNBC
Worth watching for the entire hour.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38034791?__source=yahoo|related|player|text|&par=yahoo
Sold half of my BYD short position for 100% profit and half of my DKS short position for 56% profit (puts selling). See my last post for current thoughts on market and current open positions. I am letting my remaining shorts ride for the time being. Doing a victory lap now!
We need aahhsshot deep buyers to come in now. I bery, bery not hoppy wit mahkit tooday, so I go wee-wee in your Coke until mahkit go up.
So solly.
Sorry about the PPT glitch, guys. It’s back up now.
We’ll be working hard to track down the cause of the outage to ensure that it doesn’t happen again.
-J
Thanks for the hard work. Great site.
Fuck it, swapping out of GXDX and into AMD.
i’m with you fly .. going ultra stupid long on /cl 72.40
Going long here. Making “feeler” trades, scaling in small… will add much more tomorrow if there is follow-through on the relief rally.
Fly, your blogs are turning into YHOO message boards. Great site while it lasted.
uh..
watcha sayin’ willis ..
doesn’t matter. he’s banned.
Thanks for giving me some bearings in this choppy market Fly
Gl
You r banned
Funny! Love ya, Fly!
Fly wins again
The only time the Fly has ever lost, that I know of, is when facing his own offspring in water park battle (wearing fancy water shoes). Treu?
The sun got the better of him during a mountain vacation with Steve the Fucking Neighbor on time. Might have been the same weekend, actually. Probably just a few day lapse.
XRT retail has been outperfroming every other sector on my 36 chart screen. That’s some seriously bizzare “Costanza” price action. XLP staples and IBB biotech should be the ones rallying hardest–being the “safety” sectors.
Eying CIEN. If it breaks the high of day, looks good. Otherwise, will wait until end of day price to see if it can hold this bounce.
A great man once said “i can’t battle.
I only have one cup of henny in me. How the fuck do u think i feel?”
Huh ??
Uh oh, Team Jake-ob is like a dead werewolf drunk on Coors Light right now. Filled with silver bullets.
My BOLD market call a couple weeks ago for a top in gold and ABX was rather prescient as it turns out. Metals went down in India trading and inflation in food groups dropped from 16.9% to 12.9% week over week. IT and autos are still hot there. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/biz/india-business/Food-inflation-falls-to-1292/articleshow/6114536.cms
“I’m not very confident about this thesis, however”
LOL!
This stopped me from going balls-out long today:
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1278006989043&chddm=208624&q=GOOGLEINDEX_US:UNEMPL&
I did sell out of my shorts, and I did pick up a bit of TYH, but if the jobs number tomorrow is as bad as the googles say they it will be, there’s no way we’re going to have a massive snapback rally. That will have to wait for another day. Tomorrow is going to be neutral at best.
Neat way to track the numbers there and it shows a pretty profound uptick in activity one would think relates to being jobless. …………jobless recovery my ass. I think it’s just going to be jobless. period.
Ha! APC up 3.71%. MGM up .62%. VZ down .32% (up .63% from where I jumped in).
Grab candy from children while throwing waterballoons at the elderly!
FLY, NOW the most important question. Are you going to sell your longs at the EOD or hold them overnight going into the NFP data craziness?
Does anyone think we’ve seen the lows for the year?
Like….. No…..duh.
We’ll see the lows when manufacturing costs level. DBI needs to show stability and China (a.k.a. global process demand) has to have distinctly bottomed. Also, I expect debt to be addressed before the end of this down cycle. U.S. stock markets will follow those events, not lead them.
Interesting, so you don’t think the market will try to sniff out the solution and anticipate it? Ok, that’s fair. So from an investor’s perspective you could wait for the event before making a move.
I’m just a little skeptical of how bearish/skeptical the average person has become about the state of affairs, and that often produces the best buying opportunities. If I read one more piece about how we are just like Japan, the Great Depression II, and so on – everyone never sees it coming that clearly. Thanks for your input.
Mind you, I’m holding long and hedging/nibbling on the way down, so I’m not putting full faith in that outcome. However, on the last ride down, we didn’t correct until factory utilization rates upticked. I expect a similar outcome here.
What do you mean Cain? Cap Utilization and IP have been upticking. Durable goods have been very strong recently, very low in comparison to prior levels. Auto parts and materials equipment/parts are strong.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/g17.pdf
No, I was speaking broadly; factory utilization from near zero to where it stands now is to then as China going from a slide in productivity or the Dry Bulk Index leveling off will be down the road.
I expect one of those elements I mentioned to act as a catalyst.
OK.
I briefly looked over the latest TDW quarterly and they’re saying that generally when offshore oil drilling utilization rates in the US GoM are low (they were in Q4 ’09) they will redeploy to other areas of the globe. Obviously this would be a catalyst for the BDI etc. but one should also consider that the BDI is largely correlated to inflation.
As for China, I mistimed my play there. I’m not sure when they’ll rebound but the seeds are slowly being planted. Wages have to increase along with their currency and lending has to be widely available with strict and fair capital requirements.
I would so like to know what the urinal shadows are saying….
The V.King bought 35,000 SVA…do not do the same…..
good call, quality posts lately
Are you talking to me?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzPBUGUM7KQ
Here’s a great V.King trading song…listen to all the words…
http://www.youtube.com/watch#!v=ToOA9705Td8&feature=related
Perhaps I shouldn’t share this with anyone, but I am noticing two patterns-
* General 11:00 AM direction reversal
* When the market is going to go into an upward direction, VXX seems to be a tell – it was down today despite the market being well in the red.
I’ve noticed similar things too…the VXX acts as a non-confirm indicator at turns. Like you said, today it wasn’t down even though the market was, normally indicating a false market move.
The 11 am move is more or less driven by the European close from what I have noticed – they seem to take the morning trend and push it a little harder between 11-11:30 before getting a reversal that lasts from 60 minutes to the rest of the day.
I think that one has to remember that factories, distributors, wholesalers as a group have been sucking their pipelines dry and living off inventory for the last year and a half to two years. Prudence tells me that the uptick is mainly due to the fact that the inventory is gone and they have to start making and stocking a little stuff now. (Prudence is pretty hot BTW).
I see this every day in the wholesale shops I get into. Their shelves are bare, product selection is half of what it was, staffing is cut to the bone and the higher paid employees with experience and knowledge have been let go. Replaced by knuckle dragging, mouth breathing cave men for the most part.
Whatever bounce we get will be short and short lived.