I am so mad right now; this post has to be brief and to the point. I did not expect the volatility kick up like this so fast. And, as a result, I gave back some gains. The market got “BALLMER’d,” thanks to the CEO fo MSFT talking shit about his company.
In short, this is the worst case scenario for the market, to do an intra-day reversal with authority. Good call to some of you MOTHERFUCKERS who predicted this drop. Still, with the Vix down and TLT weak, it makes no sense to me, at all. We should have been up.
Off to punch holes in walls.
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nothing like some fine Chinese Drywall to fix it back up…
ROFLOL….good one Scott.
Market dont make sense. When you have so many deperste situations things are all over the place.
I too went “full retard with mouth agape” after seeing such a strong rally. I think now really is different, where the rips just aren’t holding like they used to…perhaps due to everyone and their sister/lover watching the 200 day, while sipping petroleum from a cheap travel mug.
Last 15 minutes will get ya every time.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-climb-after-durable-apf-353744086.html?x=0
What would these fuckers say if they posted the article 30 minutes later?
Punch those holes. Whatever you do, don’t kick the dog.
No fucking way in hell this market was going to heal itself after that bloodbath in a few days.
Despite today, we are chopping around in the same range for the last 5 days – doesn’t feel like it but that’s what it is. Ride it out with tons of cash or get the fuck out.
Ballmer should stick to what he knows best.. EATING.
If he was eating at the time, maybe he’d keep his yapper closed. Let Apple talk shit.
Funny, I saw Balmer eating at Azteca, a Mexican restaurant in Redmond, a couple months ago.
$RUT up a bit today.
Trannies held up …. something to grasp to, eh?
Trannies usually do have something to grasp to; unfortunately. So I’ve heard… so I’ve heard.
Which of these motherfuckers would have called this?
And my FLS/SNDK experiment continues…..I am looking for that Paul Tudor Jones article about him selling about 1/2 at resistance and the 1/2 about 3% or so above resistance, but I can’t find it yet for the person who asked me earlier….will look for it tonight….I still wonder if that was it, it would explain the VXX and TLT though? We will see……..
Dr. Le Fly, your patient is waiting in the operating room for you to finish the operation. The markwet remains in correction – the uptrend has not resumed. That is all.
Didn’t get “Ballmered” it got “Bummered”…
Mr. Fly,
in trading as in life, when nothing makes sense and you don’t know what your next move should be, just do what I do; ask yourself “what would Dennis Kneale do?????”
SO! Back into hedges tomorrow?
Yesterday morn’ I swapped my VXX for longs when the PPT/Fly made the brilliant pivot call. Like everyone I was feeling really smart for about 24 hours and now? No idea. Am about 2/3 long.
Should’ve sold at 3:58PM. I did.
I have said, and with great emphasis Mr. Fly, that the ’09 lows were but a “warm-up” as you say in the colonies, I mean the States, as there is no engine of real growth in sight and debt afflicts all sectors of the economy. If you are ready to talk seriously now I will arrange for Mr. Hamburgalar to book an appropriate PATH train…
With the exception of a fast and minorly profitable FAS trade I’ve been sitting on cash for the past few days, but today advancing issues outnumber declining issues and new 20 day lows dried up. That’s enough for me to take a small long (with my finger on the panic, I mean sell, button). Go ATPG!!!
I am so made right now; this post has to be brief and to the point.
But you half Eyelish… I thought you had to be full-blood Eyetarian to get dat distinction?
__________
The honesty is refreshing, but I fail to see how one can hold any position with conviction in this market and gloat. Unless you take profits quickly, you will be stomped in both directions. I’ve been hedging my long stocks with futures with a slight positive bias but beyond that, nothing is clear to me directionally.
2s, 5s, and 7s this week, right? c’mon, guys, not only do auctions end tomorrow, but we come to a 3day weekend leading to monday, may31 – the day before the beginning of the month.
keep the faith. it’s not your market, it’s uncle ben’s.
Fly,
Knowing when to sit on the sidelines and wait for the “fat pitch” is the hallmark of an expert trader — a skill that you’ve got in spades.
Given the price action in the past few days, I’m surprised that you’re not making a more sizable move into cash.
25% is pretty sizable, young boy!
LOL
Mr. Yap
i admire your gravatar
Hold your ballsacks with authority, gentlemen. This here rallly is indeud going to 1120 and in a direct fashion at that.
What happened today is just one more attempt to fuck you out of your money.
Hold tight.
HBear,
Couldn’t agree more. Market is heading higher. We might have to wait itll next week to reap the benefits but the direction is clear to me, UP. I am forbidden to bet in the market for few months but if I were to bet, strong long would be up to your 1120-40. After this up move, the Fly’s 9300 target is almost a certainty, if not 8000dow
One thing bothers me though. How much influence do these terrorist bankers have in ‘deciding’ where the market goes. I firmly believe that they want to re-teach Obama about who the boss is. In this instance, they might shit on the market for the next couple of days (month end) so suckers (investors) get their statements and turn against Obama. After this, the idealistic leader might soften his stance on regulation. I hope he doesn’t but them 3-5 banks are far more powerful than most believe!
For the politically inclined: Which party is fighting for the bankers? This should give you a clue of who enabled their rise to this awesome (in a bad way) power they have and the ensuing demise of the country/globe!
RPaul is the DUDE our country needs to survive! Back him up!
Joe,
Can i just ask you one question — why are you forbidden from betting in the market for these neext few months?
HB
His wife’s attorney has frozen his assets.
__________
Is Rue Paul a dude for real? And is it really safe to “back him up”?
LOL
U TTTTTTTTTTT OOOOOOOOOOO
Fly,
Are you going to re-initiate VXX positions at this $30 level?
Market is back testing the break out from this am.. and filled the gap… almost a mirror image of yesterday.. no clear winners but the day traders…..
wigwam teepee market.
I cant believe Ballmer! He cost me 5k! However, I still have a lot of cash on the sidelines.
I cant believe Ballmer! He cost me 5k! However, I still have a lot of cash on the sidelines.
I believe I read where, after making that statement, Ballmer reached into his pocket and used 5K to capture a rather messy sneeze.
OEW Summary: Rally to SPX 1091 confirms uptrend (???)
“Today’s continuation rally carried the SPX to 1091 turning the short term OEW charts positive for the first time since the second week in May. However, the SPX has not been able to crack through the 1090 swing pivot so we can put these charts at neutral to negative for now. This correction continues to look like the 4-year cycle is bottoming. This cycle has been very consistent through the years in creating the yearly low. It is most noted for creating bear market bottoms. Which it does most of the time. However, it does not create bear market bottoms during bull markets. Only the yearly low. Typically the bottoming process takes two to three months and the market loses 10% to 20% of its value. During bull markets; examples of the 10% variety were in 1986, 1994 and 2006; and examples of the 20% variety were in 1990 and 1998. With this market already having corrected 14.7% it should generate oversold momentum readings compatible with the 1990 and 1998 lows. Both of these lows also occurred after five wave bull market advances. After this cycle bottoms in Jun/July probabilites suggest the bull market will resume.”
Note: Wonder if Fly can back test PPT to the 98′ low to generate an oversold momentum reading for comparison to this current downdraft?
“The current 50 SPX point rally, thus far, should be Intermediate wave B. A downsloping Intermediate wave C should follow soon. With a potential correction low in Jun/July we would expect the SPX to decline to the OEW 944 pivot. This represents a 50% retracement of the entire bull market and about a 23% correction from the SPX 1220 high. Then, possibly, when everyone is claiming the bear market is back the bull market correction should bottom. Certainly this is a risky call after the market has dropped nearly 15% in only four weeks. Thus far the technicals fit this scenario. There is plenty of time to watch it unfold. We continue with our mantra: anticipate, monitor and adjust.”
Note: The ultimate head fake … a 23% correction getting everyone short for a double dip … mark your calenders gents and archive this post. A gutsy call INDEUD!!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Poster notation: As you can observe from the above OEW analysis, a correction of 20% or more is not customary (90′ & 98′) in the midst of a cyclical bull market. Tony states this knowing that once a 20% or more correction occurs, most will claim the rally was nothing more than “a bear market rally” and load up short for the assumed double dip a’la Devil Dog. But … “Aye, there’s the rub!” You see, in OEW analysis, bear market rallies never occur in the form of 5 waves up …. maybe three but never five.
This game is so fucking simple…it’s just not so simple to make money off it. Here is the simple fucking deal:
1 — the market went up too far, too fast. In order for the big banks to make their huuuuuugorrific profits during the 2nd half of this year, the market had to correct and correct in a significant way. They couldn’t just push this fucker straight up for the next 9 months. Therefore, they NEED up and down movement to continue to profit madly. And lets face it, its all about their profits, rebuilding their balance sheets, making them whole…..
Now, with all that said, we have all of the following which suggests at least a near term uptrend:
1) strong corp profits ( which makes, at minimum, a good Bullish justification)
2) The market is down 10%+ in a month. The market just doesn’t go down much faster than this. Not even during the financial collapse. Even if our trend is now down, we’ll be going back into the 1100’s.
3) There is no fucking yield available. Money managers everywhere will start panicking at the first sign of a turnaround, trying to get long (ala Fly today) chasing a bit of yield.
4) We seem to have found a decently solid bottom. Lets not forget we’ve given up like 6 – 9 months of profits.
5) So far this has been a panic/fear based correction. I just don’t see the market going down much further based on “speculation”. We would need to start seeing some hard facts to justify the decline. Bankruptcies, slowing growth, etc. This may indeud come, but its going to need some time to develop.
I could go on and on….bottom line is if your timeline is measured in weeks and not months or years, now is the time to get seriously long.
HB 9000
Thanks for taking the time to post some background about your view.
anytime… i hope i’ve helped bring some clarity to this situation for you.
I’d like to taste a decently solid bottom any hour of the day
Facts
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed USDL-10-0589
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, May 7, 2010
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * [email protected] * http://www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * [email protected] * http://www.bls.gov/ces
Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * [email protected]
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — APRIL 2010
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate
edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufactur-
ing, professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospi-
tality. Federal government employment also rose, reflecting continued hiring
of temporary workers for Census 2010.
Household Survey Data
In April, the number of unemployed persons was 15.3 million, and the unem-
ployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent. The rate had been 9.7 percent for the
first 3 months of this year. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for whites (9.0 percent)
edged up in April, while the rates for adult men (10.1 percent), adult women
(8.2 percent), teenagers (25.4 percent), blacks (16.5 percent), and Hispanics
(12.5 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was
6.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) con-
tinued to trend up over the month, reaching 6.7 million. In April, 45.9 percent
of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-12.)
Among the unemployed, the number of reentrants to the labor force rose by
195,000 over the month. (See table A-11.)
In April, the civilian labor force participation rate increased by 0.3 percent-
age point to 65.2 percent, as the size of the labor force rose by 805,000. Since
December, the participation rate has increased by 0.6 percentage point. The em-
ployment-population ratio rose to 58.8 percent over the month and has increased
by 0.6 percentage point since December. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes refer-
red to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged at 9.2 million in
April. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut
back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in April,
compared with 2.1 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work,
and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted
as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in
April, up by 457,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they be-
lieve no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginal-
ly attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See
table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
In April, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000. Sizable employment gains oc-
curred in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and in
leisure and hospitality. Federal government employment increased due to the hiring
of temporary workers for Census 2010. Since December, nonfarm payroll employment
has expanded by 573,000, with 483,000 jobs added in the private sector. The vast
majority of job growth occurred during the last 2 months. (See table B-1.)
Manufacturing added 44,000 jobs in April. Since December, factory employment has
risen by 101,000. Over the month, gains occurred in several durable goods indus-
tries, including fabricated metals (9,000) and machinery (7,000). Employment also
grew in nondurable goods manufacturing (14,000).
Mining added 7,000 jobs in April, with most of the increase in support activities
for mining. Since last October, mining has added 39,000 jobs.
In April, construction employment edged up (14,000), following an increase of 26,000
in March. Over the month, nonresidential building and heavy construction added 9,000
jobs each.
Employment in professional and business services rose by 80,000 in April. Temporary
help services continued to add jobs (26,000); employment in this industry has in-
creased by 330,000 since September 2009. Employment also rose over the month in ser-
vices to buildings and dwellings (23,000) and in computer systems design (7,000).
In April, health care employment grew by 20,000, including a gain of 6,000 in hospi-
tals. Over the past year, health care employment has increased by 244,000.
Employment rose by 45,000 in leisure and hospitality over the month. Much of this
increase occurred in accommodation and food services, which added 29,000 jobs. Food
services employment has risen by 84,000 over the past 4 months, while accommodation
has added 18,000 jobs over the past 3 months.
Federal government employment was up in April, reflecting the hiring of 66,000 tem-
porary workers for the decennial census.
Over the month, employment changed little in wholesale trade, retail trade, informa-
tion, and financial activities.
Employment in transportation and warehousing fell by 20,000 in April, reflecting a
large decline in courier and messenger services.
In April, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased
by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours. The manufacturing workweek for all employees increased by
0.2 hour for the second straight month to 40.1 hours, and factory overtime was up by
0.1 hour over the month. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory em-
ployees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.4 hours in April.
(See tables B-2 and B-7.)
Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private nonfarm sector increased by
1 cent to $22.47 in April. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have in-
creased by 1.6 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production
and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $18.96. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from -14,000
to +39,000, and the change for March was revised from 162,000 to 230,000.
Ballmer is cool!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvsboPUjrGc
He’s the reason MSFT has sucked for 10 years.
I dont know what he is really like, but it doesn’t matter. He should be fired for the way he acted in that video.
Lower, we shall go.
love the photoshop of the pelican and the burning oil rig on the home page.
just noticed that. very clever
Le Fly,
Perhaps you can satiate your frustrations by kicking old men (like Ballmer) down cascading flights of spiked iron stairs, as we watch this market play havoc with capital.
In sympathy with your ill mood, my frustrations are rising as I am stuck in “tornado alley” aka Denver, trying to get back home after a trip to the Left Coast.
However, the trip did produce fruit, as I am harvesting millions from the itinerant hands of poverty stricken Cesar Chavez-like brokers and ideological money managers.
Dear Le Fly: When learning to fly, unless you are positive your instruments are broken, you gotta trust them. What is your PPT telling you?
“There is no reason to believe the market will behave responsibly”
get drunk on margaritas and buy stocks again tomorrow…. just sell them by oils pit close!
Barton Biggs and Mobius both calling for a rally… I agree.
Fly, punching holes in the wall helps a bit, although repairing the holes tomorrow won’t be fun.
MSFT afterhours — its the way we want it. What is the problem.