The mechanical bull market gave us another 40. That’s all. Go home and kiss your kids and look forward to another 40 tomorrow.
Good day.
Top picks: General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] , TriQuint Semiconductor [[TQNT]]
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Ya got 8 seconds on the bull to win. Any less and ya get stomped.
Vxx? Hard call
The revolution will be coordinated vis a vis the ipad device. You heard it here first folks
Act now and receive a FREE Black Turtle Neck.
Take it to the Mets game!……21st Century Blue Radio!!!
This is the type of device they’ll have at Outback Steakhouse to fuck around on while you wait for your table.
PLEASE DO NOT IPAD AND DRIVE AT THE SAME TIME…..THANK YOU
So bet against me. Go ahead and do it.
EFA and the Dow acted weaker than the other indexes all day. Market volume was zero. Clearly, my thursday tweets spooked the JPM desk
Still, i have enough liquid cash left to buy 1 “da bomb”, and 2 churros.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5odrtwNoTW0&feature=related
I’m curious as to why you’re still in TLT? I recall many moons ago you were very stubbon buying down SRS. You eventually manned up, owned to the fact it was a mistake based upon ego and moved on.
Seems TLT is a similar but less risky play.
Even if the market Dips, I highly doubt people will find safety in treasuries. The Feds aren’t going to raise interest rates for quite some time. Hence, TLT will continue to make new lows every day. 1% is nothing. But over the course of a month? It will eat into your awesome picks.’
Time to realize it was a good hedge at the time but it’s a complete waste now. Sell that TURD, invest more in beatdown plays and don’t make turn this into another SRS.
While yer at it, dump VXX. Broken ass ETF anyway.
Fund managers shift money between DBC (crb commodity index) and TLT (treasuries) all day. They often act like opposite ends of a seesaw
on a 30 min chart, DBC looks ridiculously overextended upwards here. This would be the worst time to short TLT–unless you really think DBC is going straight up from here.
When QQQQ and FXI start stopping out the late buyers–they’re going to get involuntarily forced back into Bonds,Yen,Vix. The detonation will be not unlike what just happened to UNG shorts today.
Actually, the bond mkt was open on Friday. So today was a two day move, which is the reason for the big move.
As for your opinion on rates, I AGREE. The Fed will NOT be raising anytime soon. As a result, rates will stay low and bonds will do fine. I hope you revisit your bond analysis and see my point.
As for safety trade: nothing is better than bonds. Go look at correlations.
One big difference between SRS (and yes, VXX) and TLT. The leveraged short ETFs (and for different reasons, VXX too it appears) decay in value just from the market churning. So, as long-term protective holds, they are indeed dogs. TLT is a straight-forward long play on bonds – it doesn’t have any inherent decay due to market volatility – if yields drop back to a certain point, TLT will rise to where it was the last time at that point. Thus far, as far as I can tell, TLT is down less than 2% from Monsieur Fly’s average cost (if I have this wrong, please let me know).
I understand you think the only direction for bonds to go is down, but clearly, others disagree. Would you bail out of a position you think had a more than reasonable chance of paying off, or that offered a strong hedge, just because you were down 1.5% on it short term? If you did, then you truly represent “weak hands”. And, as I suggested in the comments a couple of entries ago, it was less than a year ago that we had yields rise to the same levels, then fell back. Moreover, in retrospect, this market is that much more overheated now, and thus actually that much more likely to suffer a strong pullback and a flight of money to safety now than earlier, when rates pulled back anyway. So to deny any possibility of another pullback in yields now is to say that you, unlike the rest of us poor fellows, are omniscient.
Tommy,
You summed it up pretty well. The Flyman has an awesome blog and is usually on the right side of the trade. But, yes, I agree 100% with your views. TLT fired a technical sell signal today. No sense wasting time in that or VXX, for that matter. Loss-making positions need to be nipped from the bud, else they become emotional drains.
Just curious: still holding your VXX and TLT?
He’s gotta be. One thing I will say after following this blog for some time. FLY man’s up to trades. Buys and Sells.
Disagree or not, the guy is honest in that regard.
me no likey SD CEO..
I usually wait for Henry to nail the bottom in stock’s Fly buys, but I don’t see any of your brethern backing you on this one, Fly. RC, where’s your “Don’t bet against the Fly,” mantra. Seems like you’re alone on this one Fly.
Step right this way
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCUiEC3Ld4Q&feature=related
Melt Up…Oil…Tech….Commodity….10 year all up. We Apple March our way 1200-1250. Apple looks like safest bet on planet today. I stepped into a store on a weekday last week….the traffic was mind boggling to me…this is before the new toy came out. Those people are all buyers, also they didn’t appear to be the most tech savvy people around , which should bode well for margins!… Would bet MSFT gets in the game with their Zunelike copycat of the I-Pad. I did hear MSFT is coming out with a smart phone in a month!
Actually the Courier is a nice device but 6 months away
Unlike the iPad, it actually closes like a book
Incorporates the Surface interface
http://www.engadget.com/2010/03/30/switched-on-courier-courts-the-creative/
Oh god! Don’t buy MSFT so long as Ballmer is CEO…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KUeCUMJPMI
Much Coin often manifests its way in the most bizarre manner.
See Bob Doll
Just grab a little PAL. Buy and Hold!
“No Downside Market”
believe me yet?
Hurry up a look at the futures, they’re actually down. Time for the PPT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7H0K1k54t6A
Now this is a pretty cool laptop-it rolls up.
Who is “Devildog”?
DD is broke and in bull mkt jail
Fly. I have discovered a K-cup to rival Timothy’s Italian roast, That being, Timothy’s Kona Blend. A most excellent brew. As to the condom ents (sic) some take with their coffee, I concur. Coffee should be imbibed much as my late Uncle Mel described his preference for the fairer sex…… Hot, Black and Strong.