iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,433 Blog Posts

Man Up; Go Long

Instead of trying to time [[FAZ]] and [[SRS]] trades, why don’t you build a list of longs worth buying at a discount? If you assume we are on the other side of the mountain and there is nothing but downside left, you are sorely mistaken.

People of the internets: Benjamin Bernanke will toss pinless hand grenades into your surprise birthday party celebrations, just before stealing your cake. It is not wise to bet against men with printing presses. It is not wise to bet against men who own space rockets (Le Fly).

For the day, I nibbled, every so gingerly; but I nibbled nonetheless.

Should we push the envelope here, buoyed by solid quarterly earnings, the short sellers will regret the day their parents made them. Into a melt up, I insist: look towards steel names, like Nucor Corporation [[NUE]] , Mechel OAO (ADR) [[MTL]] , POSCO (ADR) [[PKX]] and United States Steel Corporation [[X]] .

Within tech, I like Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) [[CTRP]] , TEKELEC [[TKLC]] and Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] .

Other names worth purchase include W.W. Grainger, Inc. [[GWW]] , Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , Masco Corporation [[MAS]] , SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] and yes Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] .

In order to get me bearish, I need to see book to bill ratios collapse. I need to see the unemployment rate continue its path higher. And, most importantly, I need to see earnings warnings from our big corporations. It is not enough to see weak banks, mainly because the banks are impaired to begin with. They are in a period of adjustment and are not good long term investments. Should bellwether tech and industrial names warn, THAT and only THAT will convince me to lower the boom and throw on some hedges.

Until that happens, I will view all sell offs as buying opportunities.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfYMsNhgJyA 616 500]

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33 comments

  1. jg

    fig.

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  2. henryfool

    Man up chickens!

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  3. JakeGint

    Have done so.

    About to announce on PPT.

    ________

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  4. henryfool

    SLXP PEIX ASYS OSTK ARGN ICXT
    END(it’s gonna get cold again)
    JSDA

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  5. Purdy

    GS has determined that a mkt rally shall not be permitted until the senate affirms their man Bernanke.

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  6. henryfool

    APPL’s Rev’s are gonna trounce all street estimates somewhere north of 13 billion!
    Get Long ding dongs!

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  7. The Haj

    What was that again about Blo-Tek Industries?

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  8. Big Mike

    Sigh….Didn’t I, or Didn’t I call the fucking close…

    Sometimes, it’s not even fun anymore…It’s kind of like watching recorded football games that you already seen the final scores on ESPN.

    I might buy some AAPL here (as I feel gambling) into earnings… The tablet will surpass everyone expectations! It can turn into an android robot and fetch you coffee and walk your dog and shit.

    Pending…

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  9. TA

    I bailed on my small positions in TRID, ACAS and CHINA today
    Sold a few short puts on MDR but that’s it for new positions

    The market has done nothing wrong yet but I don’t like the way it’s behaving and today didn’t change that
    The action in APWR and YGE has been horrific to say the least

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  10. allan

    big fan! but if you would, for a newbie, why are you so bullish on steel? clearly nothing new will be built for some time, dubai is built, china is a question mark, love the tech/4g/education thesis, as well as others, i read your blog everyday thanks 🙂

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  11. Mr. President

    AAPL crushed ’em…
    They’re bananas.

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    • TA

      Note that AAPL is no longer deferring revenue of iPhone sales, big change to earnings

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      • Mr. President

        Noted. Still, very impressive quarter.

        This is important: If AAPL trades red tomorrow, that’s very bad.

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        • Ol' Jack Burton

          According to Rev Shark, the comparable is $3.50 (analyst estimate) using the new acctg. so they would have beat by .17.

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  12. John the vagabond
    John the vagabond

    Fly good point on the book to bill. One thing we can see almost in real time. Mortgage rates. When and “IF” the FED gets out of the “buy mortgage bonds” we should see mortgage rates spike. I think that’s enough to spook the markets. Keep an eye on March 31st 2010. The date FEDS claim to leave the mortgage market.

    As far as the fed chair. he will be confirmed and we will move higher..

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  13. TraderCaddy

    When the earnings are bad and the stock(s) go up then a bottom has been reached, short term or otherwise.
    If stock(s) go down on good news then the top has been reached.

    The market (watch how bad gold stocks have been acting) smells the punch bowl being taken away.

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  14. Big Mike

    God damn it, I knew I should have shorted Texas Instruments…Should have Long AAPL/Short TXN;

    My famous time machine, probably crapped out this stock advice while I was ironically enough in the crapper.

    Here’s my time machine design stolen by some asshole movie director…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwVBzx0LMNQ

    Be warned however, instead of crapping out wooden balls with victims name, It craps out Platinum or Gold Balls (no cheapo here), with stocks purchases suggestions.

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    • buttonit

      Your attempt at humor pales in comparison to The Fly and thus renders you not funny. It’s kind of like hanging out with Richard Pryor (pre-mortem, of course) and trying to follow up his jokes with jokes of your own. In other words, you’re a doosh!

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  15. Doc

    This is so weird…TheStreet.com headline “Apple rides Big Mac Sales”…we were talking about big macs all morning…

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  16. No One

    nothing changed.

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  17. Tim Knight

    I dont think so Mr. Fly. I have a 7 digit position both in the FAZ and the TYP. Apple is going down.

    Why dont you all come to a real blog where we always win everyday? I make live trading calls day in and day out. Many of my commenters go on to host subscription websites.

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  18. buycurious

    OCNW. Along with Calix one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Broadband Stimulus Program (~$10B), has gone from $3 to $5 in the last 3 months and is headed up for sure. This is a company with about $100M in 2009 revs that could double its revs by 2011.

    Infonetics rates OCNW and Calix (private but IPO’ing shortly) as the two big players in rural broadband, where the BSP will pour monies. ADTN is a lagging third while ZHNE is a bit player.

    Lightly traded, small float. When the rocket takes off, it will T A K E O F F ..

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  19. Bond

    Is writing like a Fly wanna be cool here?

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  20. Damon

    SQM did the power dip.

    The Fly has balls of steel.

    Market still sketchy. (thanks, Obami!)

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  21. Speculation

    I think there is some support on the QQQQs and other indexes. Its all heavily reliant on Weds. The fundamentals are not that bad. We just need to get past the President’s speech. I have a feeling that what is said during the state of the union speech will have a big impact on the market.

    http://bit.ly/6ObsF3

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  22. TA

    Today was lame, unless something changes we aren’t going back up anytime soon.

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  23. Vegas Martin

    Make the Call: If the S&P 500 stays above 1085 for the remainder of the week, the market is safe and the bull market rally continues or the S&P dips below 1085 and after that, it’s be complete annihilation. Or is it possible to be in the middle of these two extremes?

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  24. Hawaii Five0

    This and what I said previously make me cautious here!

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

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  25. Speculation

    I got tonight’s full Jim Rogers video recorded off of Bloomberg 30 minutes long.

    The interview was done today.

    http://bit.ly/7aQ5n7

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